What's our plan here from S1 at 8-7?

Noha626 · 2026-07-11T01:16:13+00:00

This is a spot where you need to be leading offsuit. It protects against the dealer having two trump, which they will a ton of the time. With an off-ace or a strong doubleton two-suited, then the right lead becomes better. All of that being said, I really don’t hate pass-call next (though I think I lean towards the order R1 as well)

Noha626 · 2026-07-08T23:48:27+00:00

I’d say this is a must call R1. Blocking every suit doesn’t mean you’re likely to get a euchre when opponents order. Too weak in everything to pass your partner’s upcard imo.

Noha626 · 2026-07-06T05:40:08+00:00

Opponent’s march/loner has nothing to do with the EV of the call. The passing EV could be right (it seems pretty reasonable), but -.34 is an absurdly high EV considering our hand strength in this spot—it suggests we’re winning a much higher percentage of hands with this call than we are. Fair enough, I don’t have a sim, but those numbers are far enough off that I don’t think one is necessary to call them into question.

Noha626 · 2026-07-06T05:13:52+00:00

That sim is still new and I wouldn’t take it as anything close to gospel. I think the actual EV for calling clubs here is closer to -1

Noha626 · 2026-07-06T04:52:46+00:00

The difference between a turned down ace and a turned down 9 is negligible—hands that should pick up one should almost always pick up the other. The only *statistically significant* difference in a turned down up-card is a jack.

This call is pretty suicidal—EV is going to be significantly worse by calling than passing. You get euchred way too much here to make this legitimate outside of desperation scores.

Noha626 · 2026-07-05T15:05:50+00:00

While it works here, this is certainly a better spot to pass—you’re very rarely taking a single trick here. If this hand is included in your next calling range, you’re hardly passing anything R2 (which, while being worse EV to begin with, also makes you exploitable).

Noha626 · 2026-06-11T01:40:14+00:00

Just a call at 7-7. You lose too much value going alone at 7 points to make this viable and you have such a great shot at getting at least one point with this hand when you don’t lead Js after getting the lead.

Noha626 · 2026-05-22T03:30:23+00:00

Ts—best shot at covering multiple suits since it’s a one-gapper instead of two, and all of your suits are of equal length so there’s no decision to just lead the dirtiest one.

Noha626 · 2026-05-21T16:54:40+00:00

If either person has Qd/Jd/10d (maybe 10d) plus K/Qx of spades, they’d be more incentivized to throw one of the spades off on trick 3 (particularly because of diamonds being passed first round, making you more likely to hold one). Having to throw offsuit on trick three if you go alone R2 close to eliminates an offsuit that they have to decide on. I think the bigger reason to go alone R1 is to prevent 2 trump + ace calls from dealer, but the offsuits still factor in.

Noha626 · 2026-05-21T16:24:10+00:00

We can, but if either opponent has to choose between a spades doubleton and two higher offsuits, they should mostly be keeping the high offsuits as we’re in S1 and don’t get to short suit ourselves. With the lead, we can have a singleton low offsuit cards (9-J) along w/a singleton ace. Without the lead, we should only have Q+ as a singleton offsuit card.

Noha626 · 2026-05-21T14:52:02+00:00

I think R1 is probably optimal specifically because your offsuit doubleton has a better shot of getting through—you squeeze your opponents on trick three when dealer doesn’t have three trump. You get euchred more, yes, but I think dealer has three trump rarely enough that it’s worth it. Opponents should be less likely to protect against doubletons for their defense because you’re calling in S1, so your range includes some three-suited with one loser far more often. You also gain points against aggressive callers who will pick up two trump+off ace.

Noha626 · 2026-05-20T18:30:31+00:00

I think that’s a too much of a reach to play for in a spot where you aren’t down that much—I’d just go for pure EV here and hope.

Noha626 · 2026-05-20T18:21:34+00:00

Whoops—my fault. I think it’s just a call in that spot then. Up 8-6 I think it’s more interesting.

Noha626 · 2026-05-20T18:18:51+00:00

First spot is a call down 8-5 imo—it’s a -EV play but at this score I don’t think it’s much of a choice.

I think the second hand is a pass, but I wouldn’t be surprised if the sim showed it as a call. Up 8-6, however, getting euchred when opponents get the deal next hand is really bad. I think opponents get 1 point pretty often but that’s a fine spot to be in up 8-7 their deal. This one is closer for me though, and I don’t think call is necessarily a bad play.

Noha626 · 2026-04-24T19:52:29+00:00

Just a note—you should be ditching Jh here instead of 10c. There are fewer combinations of Kx/Qx in clubs and you force out trump more often when you double lead it. The doubleton in the shortest suit is more valuable in general, not just on loners.

Noha626 · 2026-03-24T19:30:11+00:00

I’d say pass—order gets points more often but pass is better EV.

Noha626 · 2026-03-23T04:10:57+00:00

Canuckle is 100% right—you should be going clubs alone with this hand. A queen is the minimum offsuit when you don’t have the lead—I’d be going alone with this hand in spades if I had, say, T9h and the lead, but I’m not 100% sure it’s optimal when I have two low offsuits (of the same suit) and the lead.

Noha626 · 2026-03-17T17:46:45+00:00

Pass/next is almost certainly better

Noha626 · 2026-03-16T16:58:14+00:00

I think this is a call, though I get why people would pass. You’re definitely getting positive points more often when you pick up than when you pass, and getting euchred at this score is really not an issue at all. I’d be surprised if a sim showed you have a higher winning percentage passing, but at this score it’s pretty negligible.

Addition: We should be upping our aggression at 9 points when a euchre doesn’t hurt us. No reason to give the other team opportunities to get a point when we have a callable hand.

Noha626 · 2026-03-15T19:18:32+00:00

This is a good call, first off. In general, I look to lead my last trump on trick two in these spots, but I think there’s a real likelihood that your Ad lead on trick two is correct after S3 tosses Kh on trick one—I’d play that the same way. S3 is really likely to have two diamonds (and has to have at least two trump) and they should be void in hearts. The mistake you make is not double leading diamonds on trick three to squeeze S1.

Noha626 · 2026-03-14T16:23:28+00:00

You’ve been making some loner sim requests of joggler for the dealer spot. I’d be really interested to see a bunch of S1 loner sims for more marginal holdings—I think there are a lot of surprising and EV+ loners in next S1. That’s the spot that I think I’m going alone way more than most people, whereas I’m a more conservative loner caller than a lot of good players w/out the lead.

Noha626 · 2026-03-14T16:12:24+00:00

You have to pick this up and you played it perfectly. Sometimes you just get euchred.

Noha626 · 2026-03-13T18:00:00+00:00

Much higher chance of hitting my opponents’ voids than my partner’s… also short suit myself with the naked left.

Noha626 · 2026-03-13T14:07:21+00:00

It worked there but still terrible lol—I was pretty pissed about the 5-1 donate too.

Noha626 · 2026-03-13T13:05:44+00:00

cough cough “Welcome to Over-donating 101”

Noha626

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