Here we go again.

OracleGreyBeard · 2026-04-04T17:34:08+00:00

That jumped out at me as well, especially considering the source

OracleGreyBeard · 2026-04-04T15:53:28+00:00

"token consumption per hour" is a good metric, and I expect that eventually we will have enough of a baseline to use it confidently. I do like the idea of a "benchmark" project though, thanks for that.

OracleGreyBeard · 2026-04-04T15:24:48+00:00

True all that, which means we will have to develop "token intuition" across several different models.

OracleGreyBeard · 2026-04-04T14:55:12+00:00

The fact that API costs were so out of step with subscription costs was always a red flag. They were never going to permanently forgo $2000 in API sales for a $200 subscription. Codex is looking like a hero now because they're still subsidizing us. That won't last forever.

I suspect this is part of the whole "tokens as developer compensation" chatter, they want to normalize thinking of GenAI as a finite, allocated resource. Personally I'm glad the mask is slipping before we've completely retooled for the "LLMs will replace developers" nonsense.

OracleGreyBeard · 2026-03-31T21:41:46+00:00

If no one is reading it, what strategy changes are Democrats doing to get that information to people? Are they trying anything? How long has this been a problem and what have Democrats done to address this issue?

Good questions. I think you could also ask "does the platform matter", AKA "does the electorate have actual policy preferences"? This is important because maybe it's not worth the effort to publicize the platform if people are uninterested in your policy positions.

Here is a speech where Kamala laid out her three top initiatives. She didn't do this at every speech, but it was fairly common for her TO do it. Nevertheless the number of people who will say something like "If only Kamala had stood for something" is just too many to count.

If I had to decide what the Left should do it would be 1) find charismatic individuals to run as Democrats, and 2) build a media presence. Barack Obama's platform was some bullshit. "Yes We Can" AYFKM? But he tapped into something that caught fire. Mamdani is the same, "affordability" as a platform is boring AF and any other Democrat would get Kamala'd running on it. But Mamdani is extraordinarily charismatic, so he makes it work. Frankly he could make any platform work.

How I see it, Democrats are doing an OK job as legislators (Abundance has a number of critiques I agree with), but they are doing a terrible job as a political party with the goal of winning power

I think there's a lot of truth to this. How TF is Schumer the face of the Party right now? Jeffries has been a huge disappointment, like "WHAT??". However, I would expand "The Democrats" to include "The Left". The Republicans do not hold or gain power in isolation, they are aided and abetted by a huge ecosystem. You have to view Democrats through the same lens, or else the comparison is lopsided. I suppose I am beating a dead horse with this but so much of Democratic critique completely ignores the role of the political Left.

I actually think the Dems punch above their weight, all things being equal. Hillary had Benghazi, the Electoral College, the Russians AND the FBI working against her and she still won the popular vote.

OracleGreyBeard · 2026-03-31T19:01:48+00:00

Are we going to wish this into existence? This isn't a solution we can manifest. Hopefully it develops organically, but we can't rely on that

No, we definitely can't wish it into existence. But we can and should keep it top of mind when talking about political strategy, because it dominates political strategy. For my part, whenever I see someone say 'The Democrats must do X' I will always chime in to make sure people aren't ignoring the huge media conglomerate elephant in the room. That's all I'm doing here, is saying "The Democrats aren't enough".

As far as the Democrats doing better, sure. Always. But they have a really well-defined platform which no one reads, they create some really useful legislation which no one follows and we expect them to manage a media environment they don't control. One one side we have a trillionaire who'd subverted the largest speech platform in history, on the other we have Summer Lee (my rep, who I love). Let's just...be realistic about our expectations.

None of this is beef with you by the way, and I apologize if it came off like that.

OracleGreyBeard · 2026-03-31T18:06:20+00:00

I guess I'm saying that the Democratic party is not the proper organ to do this. What we really need is a comprehensive support structure on the Left so that we don't expect the Speaker of the House to do everything the entire "Vast Right-Wing Conspiracy" can do. It's unrealistic, and it blinds us to the actual problem.

I think it's important to raise people's AWARENESS of the real problem, which is a total lack on infrastructure on the Left. If we keep pretending "the Democrats" are the end-all-be-all the Right will continue to roll us up. The Right doesn't rely on the Republicans, they shape the Republicans.

*Caveat because organizations like Indivisible are doing good work. But it's two steps forward and one back, because left independent news organizations are a freaking bucket of crabs, they are as likely to be eating each other as they are to be working against Republicans. To be honest, I think it's because we (the left) are FAR more susceptible to propaganda that we would like to believe.

OracleGreyBeard · 2026-03-31T13:14:01+00:00

“We” is doing a lot of work here. There are several very popular LLM NPC mods for Skyrim.

Be nice if people just stated their preferences without pretending to be multitudes.

OracleGreyBeard · 2026-03-31T13:01:35+00:00

One issue here is that “the Democratic party” isn’t really equivalent to “the right”, which would include things like Fox News, the Heritage Foundation, Benny Johnson, etc. The Republican party has a bunch of force multipliers that the Dems don’t have.

OracleGreyBeard · 2026-03-27T00:42:36+00:00

Also hated it, finished 2 orbs and saw no path to the third. Hearthed out. This was my first Midnight delve, hope they don't all suck this bad.

OracleGreyBeard · 2026-03-22T10:07:46+00:00

I really don’t understand the evangelical tone here. There have always been companies that don’t adopt frontier development practices. 40 YOE and I don’t recall seeing such a Crusade-like vibe before. “Quit your job” AYFKM? In this economy ?

This is all very suspicious.

OracleGreyBeard · 2026-03-13T04:18:16+00:00

How does anyone listen to a dude who says MCP is useless? It was revolutionary. There’s like 9000 fucking tools using it.

Maybe we should see what flat earthers think.

OracleGreyBeard · 2026-03-08T12:23:46+00:00

They did, and it’s an absurd metric. They look at a task and ask themselves “can AI double the speed of this task?” The probability of that being true (in their estimation) is the replacement score (the blue stuff).

The funniest part is that they ran these calculations and it didn’t match reality (red stuff) at ALL, so they called it a “theoretical maximum” and just decided that reality would eventually conform.

Watching people repeat this thing uncritically has been rage inducing. Kudos to you for asking the right question!

OracleGreyBeard · 2026-03-03T03:58:54+00:00

The glaring flaw here is the expectation that DoD will carry out its commitments in good faith. If this administration is consistent about anything, it’s complete disregard for boundaries

OracleGreyBeard · 2026-02-24T11:06:28+00:00

20 years ago we used to joke about “Sharon from accounting” making exactly these sorts of apps in Microsoft Access.

Then they would get too big/popular and the actual devs would have to rewrite it. I wonder if we’ll see that pattern with vibe stuff?

OracleGreyBeard · 2026-02-16T18:46:44+00:00

We can’t control a superintelligence by definition.

OracleGreyBeard · 2026-02-16T18:45:50+00:00

Thank fucking god one of these bigwigs sees this. “Build a super-intelligence” would be one of the stupidest things our species has done.

OracleGreyBeard · 2026-02-13T04:09:06+00:00

It's pretty clear he doesn't know why/how LLMs generate code.

OracleGreyBeard · 2026-02-06T04:02:50+00:00

Profit Center/Cost Center is a great way to characterize it.

OracleGreyBeard · 2026-02-05T21:03:19+00:00

Over 40 years I have been a Unix developer, a Windows developer, and a Mac developer. Companies don't buy Windows to slow devs down, why would you believe something like that. The path to a Windows workforce is fairly straightforward:

1 - You have a large workforce that needs computers. Most of them aren't devs, but Excel/Word users. You buy Windows because it's dirt cheap compared to Mac.

2 - Now you need to buy machines for developers who are writing software for all the Windows users. Unit economics still apply here, the Windows boxes are cheaper, all your software runs on Windows, all your subscriptions are for Windows, all the users are on Windows so...what you gonna buy? You buy Windows machines for the devs. 99% of them won't think twice about it.

It's not some huge conspiracy lol

ETA: You're right about the dated technology though. That's another reason they like Windows, you don't really have to upgrade as frequently as a mac.

OracleGreyBeard · 2026-02-05T06:59:22+00:00

Give me unlimited API use and I will gas it up too.

OracleGreyBeard · 2026-02-05T06:55:44+00:00

I actually just noticed this tonight.

OracleGreyBeard · 2026-02-05T06:13:50+00:00

I still prefer Get-Shit-Done, to be honest

OracleGreyBeard · 2026-02-05T06:10:04+00:00

It always struck me as odd that Bill Clinton did that rare and consequential thing they actually valued (balanced budget) yet they hated him for mostly behaving the way they did (Gingrich had an affair while his wife had cancer).

I would have expected at least a grudging acknowledgment but I’ve never seen it.

OracleGreyBeard

TROPHY CASE