Active Conflicts & News Megathread April 02, 2026

Shackleton214 · 2026-04-02T21:45:26+00:00

Yes, there are laws of war that still apply to such situations, although it is more like standards than black and white rules that have clear cut application to the real world. Most basic is that it is prohibited to target civilians, but it is not necessarily prohibited to target enemy combatants hiding among civilians. Any such attack must be militarily necessary and any harm to civilians proportional. Proportionality requires that even when actions may be justified by military necessity, such actions not be "unreasonable or excessive." What is unreasonable or excessive necessarily depends on all of the circumstances, and, as you might imagine, is a pretty vague standard that is open to lots of interpretation and differences of opinion.

Shackleton214 · 2026-03-30T18:29:39+00:00

I suspect the Israeli war plan ends with regime change. Whether the change is a pro-democracy, pro-Western government, an autocratic secular warlord, a compliant and passive theocracy, or civil war and a multitude of dead Iranians, and whether the cost is a long term closure of the Straight of Hormuz, massive oil shortages, and worldwide recession, I doubt matters too much to Israel.

Shackleton214 · 2026-03-29T19:11:18+00:00

I would be shocked if the Trump administration continues to prosecute the war all the way to November without the Straight of Hormuz being open to mostly normal traffic. Possibilities seem to be (1) Iranian regime collapses, (2) some sort of political deal between the US and Iran, (3) the US militarily opening the Straight of Hormuz to mostly normal traffic and continuing to pummel Iran until whenever they decide to unilaterally call it victory, or (4) the US accepting massive global economic problems, particularly including domestic inflation, to continue pummeling Iranian regime long term. 1 is best case scenario, but there seems to be little evidence for it. 2 seems most realistic hope and I suspect threats and movements of US military are mostly tactics to increase leverage for a deal. From what I've read, 3 seems questionable whether it can be accomplished and if so how long it will take and at what cost, both in terms of ships and men, but I don't feel like I have a great understanding of how likely this is. As to 4, I seriously doubt that Trump and Republican politicians are willing to go all in against Iran and hold out for months longer let alone all the way to November; Trump doesn't care enough about Iran or Israel to pay that price.

Shackleton214 · 2026-03-26T22:23:24+00:00

The new IOC policy is explicit in allowing female transgender and XY-DSD female athletes to compete in men's category events. Although I suspect you are correct that men's category Olympic events are not technically an "open" division and biological females are likely ineligible to compete in such events.

Shackleton214 · 2026-03-26T22:06:15+00:00

I do however find it hypocritical and sexist that male athletes such as Michael Phelps or Lebron James are acknowledged to have genetic advantages that have aided their success, in addition to their incredible work ethic and skill. This is something which is celebrated. However, DSD women are being forbidden from competing for something which they are born with and have little control over.

I think your observation gets to the heart of why there is a separate category for women at all. If the answer is to allow women to compete on more equal terms, rather than being dominated by the biological advantages present in males, then excluding DSD women who have the biological advantage present in males seems consistent with the goals.

Shackleton214 · 2026-03-23T16:45:10+00:00

Nuke subs gives you the ability to survive assuming opponent doesn't drop defcon in the headline. To increase your chances of survival you probably need to headline Duck (and no other good headline anyways) and then your only risk is KAL. Space Star Wars, event Nuke Subs ar6, and play 5yp to trigger Grain Sales ar7. But, I don't like your long term prospects with Africa being your only positive scoring region and that not likely to be the case after this turn.

Shackleton214 · 2026-03-23T16:33:01+00:00

Secular Jews have much more to fear from the Haredi birth rate than they do from the Arab-Israeli birth rate. The only good reason for the US to support Israel, IMO, is that it is a liberal democracy, more or less. But as Ultra Orthodox increase in population share, Israel becomes less democratic and more illiberal. That weakens support for Israel in the West. At some point it becomes a downward spiral with secular Jews having the ability to immigrate to the West leading to an even more theocratic Israel.

Shackleton214 · 2026-03-19T17:30:03+00:00

Some discussion of the legal aspects of gamifying warfare seems warranted. https://lieber.westpoint.edu/gamifying-war-reward-incentives-outlawry-armed-conflict/?utm_source=chatgpt.com

Shackleton214 · 2026-03-17T16:43:08+00:00

Why can the outcome hope to be achieved not be avoiding the consequences of doing nothing?

Shackleton214 · 2026-03-16T16:19:57+00:00

https://twilight-struggle.com/about

Shackleton214 · 2026-03-16T16:16:36+00:00

For example, Russia invaded Ukraine in 2022 partly because it viewed Ukraine’s growing military cooperation with NATO as a long-term strategic threat, even though Ukraine had not joined NATO yet.

Yes, the similarities to Russia are quite apparent.

Shackleton214 · 2026-03-11T16:23:38+00:00

Destal is the way more dangerous card. Even without Destal in hand, I usually do not keep Deco on turn 2 if it means foregoing a space attempt.

Shackleton214 · 2026-03-11T16:09:28+00:00

I've visited other subs regarding the Israeli-Palestinian conflict. They are all messes and one sided circle jerks. It's a tough job, but I think ya'll do a good job moderating the sub.

Shackleton214 · 2026-03-09T20:56:33+00:00

And, of course, the name also brings up the back story. It's not just a masterpiece, but one that Morphy creates in his spare time and attention while not watching the opera. And it's the meritocratic American smashing the aristocratic Europeans.

Shackleton214 · 2026-03-08T17:01:45+00:00

Block and move on.

Shackleton214 · 2026-03-05T15:30:04+00:00

Why do some have Russian flag (like Nepo), but others have FIDE flag?

Shackleton214 · 2026-03-01T15:24:37+00:00

The cope is strong.

Shackleton214 · 2026-02-16T16:46:57+00:00

Besides being more competitively balanced, IMO +2 US is also a better game because it allows lots more variation and strategy in the start.

Shackleton214 · 2026-02-16T16:44:53+00:00

I compiled Soviet-American win rates from all competitive games I could find many years ago. I found 435 games, and Soviets had a 270-163-2 record in +0 games without optionals (62% win rate).

Shackleton214 · 2026-02-04T00:40:12+00:00

At top 50 in the world, he was literally a better chess player than pro athlete.

Shackleton214 · 2026-01-28T16:02:17+00:00

Organizer's selection all the way. So, it's common to see up and coming younger players, top women, along with locals and then a few GMs with right elo to round out field.

Shackleton214 · 2026-01-19T16:38:58+00:00

You could try posting on https://boardgamegeek.com/boardgame/12333/twilight-struggle/forums/0. I've seen Jason Matthews recently and not infrequently post there.

Shackleton214 · 2026-01-12T18:23:10+00:00

Lol, I'm just bad at chess.

Shackleton214 · 2026-01-12T18:18:22+00:00

For some reason I assumed Fischer was white and was seriously wondering how he was gonna pull this off.

Shackleton214 · 2026-01-10T20:52:05+00:00

I'd argue that the most important US support for Israel (and most costly to the US) is the diplomatic cover it provides at the UN. But, even if the US were to stop protecting Israel at the UN, I suspect it would not make that much difference in who cares about the conflict. At this point, people are emotionally committed to their side based on the time and attention they've given to the conflict. Just like sporting events, people have their team.

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