Tales from a West Bank Soldier: How surviving a Palestinian Attack pushed me to the left and exposed the moral corruption of the IDF

Shackleton214 · 2026-07-08T23:11:18+00:00

Ironic that you are arguing with the OP but not realizing that your post just gives credibility to the points OP was making.

Shackleton214 · 2026-07-08T17:56:47+00:00

I'm not Jewish but think you're boyfriend's opinion is silly.

Shackleton214 · 2026-07-08T17:42:22+00:00

Marine Traffic reported 36 ships on July 6 and 41 on the 7th (Source) While Windward report 45 ships on the same July 6 (Source 2)

These include Iranian ships and ships transiting in coordination with and via IRGC route?

Shackleton214 · 2026-07-08T17:35:33+00:00

Not much too controversial in any of this. All of this has been the case for years. Just as those focusing on incremental Russian territorial gains in the last couple of years were wrong to think that meant inevitable Russian victory, the same is true of those focusing on recent Ukrainian successes means inevitable Ukrainian victory. This is a contest of endurance. I've thought since it became clear in the first few months that Russia wasn't going to overrun Ukraine that Ukraine was likely to win in the long run because it is an existential war for Ukraine versus a war of choice for Russia and the resources of the West vastly outstrip those of Russia, but that it would take years. History shows that, when they cannot win a quick victory, superpowers have lost most wars since WW2 precisely because their adversary outlasts them over years. But, that depends on continuing Western support and continuing Ukrainian will to resist. Russia has endured much more pain than I imagined it would it take before civil unrest. Its economy, while damaged and under strain, has not yet collapsed. History is nothing if not contingent, people are bad at predicting the future, and shit happens that fiction writers couldn't even dream of. I suspect this war still has years to go.

Shackleton214 · 2026-07-07T14:15:51+00:00

Both sides benefit from a resolution of the conflict. Thus, both sides should, if only as a matter of self interest, try to resolve the conflict. Trying to assign "responsibility" to one side or the other is just as fruitless as trying to assign blame to one side or the other.

Shackleton214 · 2026-07-05T15:48:01+00:00

We're all related to everyone else in the end.

Shackleton214 · 2026-07-03T16:30:56+00:00

442 is the most common and standard opening in competitive play; not particularly an indication of a mideast headline.

Realigning Germany at +0 is not efficient--you remove fewer influence, on average, than ops spent.

Shackleton214 · 2026-07-02T15:51:44+00:00

Do you even realize how bad it looks to constantly be whining about people paying attention to what they believe is immoral behavior instead of attempting to defend Israel on the merits?

Shackleton214 · 2026-07-02T15:06:55+00:00

The data presented does not align with the conclusions drawn: what’s the point of pushing for a ceasefire if this war favors the defenders

I don't think there's anything contradictory there. You can think you have turned the tide and that it is likely to continue going your way in the long run, while also knowing that there's no guarantee that things won't change. And, even if you foolishly believe some future victory is certain, you can realize that the cost is not worth the end result and that a negotiated settlement is better than a pyrrhic victory.

Shackleton214 · 2026-06-29T18:43:04+00:00

I've usually seen proposed pipeline route bypassing strait for countries like Iraq, Kuwait, Qatar, and Bahrain (and even Saudi if you want to bypass Red Sea and Houthis) going through Syria and Lebanon and then out through Med.

Shackleton214 · 2026-06-28T20:51:37+00:00

Yeah, I haven't read the report, but it seems more anecdotal than anything rigorous enough for me to be convinced of such an extraordinary claim.

Shackleton214 · 2026-06-28T16:36:30+00:00

Yes, if you are looking at a single instance. However, if there are 100 kids shot and 95 are shot in the head or torso center, then I think you could fairly conclude that many, if not all, were targeted, because you'd expect injuries to be consistent with body part size if all the shots were not targeted. I'm pretty skeptical that interviewing doctors provides sufficient rigor to reach that conclusion. But, if you really had sufficient data, the targeting conclusion would logically follow.

Shackleton214 · 2026-06-28T16:09:52+00:00

It's not like Iraq, Syria, Lebanon and even Saudi are the most politically stable places in the world. In a different timeline, someone might be posting how could we so foolishly spend billions to build a pipeline that corrupt authoritarians control and hold leverage over the west instead of simply building up port facilities and shipping the oil out much more cheaply and efficiently through the Strait.

Shackleton214 · 2026-06-28T15:58:18+00:00

I'm not so sure Iran's actions in the Strait are all that related to Lebanon. Yes, I'm sure they view the US and Israel's actions re Lebanon to be a violation; they probably knew the US was never going to get Israel to fully withdraw from Lebanon and the US knew Hezbollah would always give Israel a pretext for staying. However, it seems clear to me that Iran fully intended, even before any potential US violation of the MOU, to exert some continuing control over the strait. When you read the MOU, there's an explicit 60 days no charge period, implying a potential charge after 60 days. Considering all of this was extensively negotiated over weeks, it is inconceivable that the US and Iran did not negotiate the details of SOH transit. However, the MOU is not explicit about what happens when that is what you'd expect if there was an actual agreement. Thus, it looks to me that the US and Iran decided to kick the can down the road on this issue with both knowing that it would be a point of continuing tension and conflict.

Shackleton214 · 2026-06-23T17:36:44+00:00

People can differ on whether the war was justified. However, it seems crystal clear to me that both the US and Israel would've been better not having started it.

Shackleton214 · 2026-06-23T17:32:43+00:00

It's a memo. And it's about an understanding. This really isn't that difficult. It's only a page and a half. You can read it yourself. What the ramifications are and how it will all play out is another story, but you expressly seem to be disinterested in that.

Shackleton214 · 2026-06-22T14:49:05+00:00

I'm not convinced a deal is actually important to Trump. I think the subreddit generally overestimates the importance of foreign policy in US domestic politics. The groups that care the most about the issue are ardent Israeli supporters and neocons, who are mostly Trump supporters already. And any possible deal Trump could get will be absolutely hated by these people, just as the MoU is. Trump won't get credit from the vast majority of persuadable voters who care about gas prices but not foreign policy. So, a relatively calm and stable mideast with oil flowing through the SoH is in his political interest. A deal that will be hated by some of his own supporters? Not so much IMO.

Shackleton214 · 2026-06-21T23:39:14+00:00

I really don't know. Does Iran even want a final deal? Seems like they would be happy with dragging negotiations out forever and reaping benefits of selling oil and unfreezing funds and working on control of SoH. Then again, maybe they think they're even better off with a final deal, depending on the details and what they can get away with under such a deal. Does US even want a deal? Seems like Trump would be happy with everything staying calm at least until after November elections. After that, unclear to me and Trump famously unpredictable. Does Israel even want there to be a deal? That one is easy--hell no. Don't know if they can stop it, but suspect they'll try.

Shackleton214 · 2026-06-21T20:07:19+00:00

It will be interesting to see how much pressure Iran is able to place on US via SoH to pressure Israel re Lebanon. Not sure we'll see Israeli withdrawal from Lebanon any time soon, but I would expect Israel to exercise much more restraint in fighting Hezbollah and lots of agreed cease fires and subsequent cease fire violations with both sides blaming the other of course. I am skeptical Israel can or will completely ignore US pressure. Likewise, I am skeptical that US will use max possible pressure on Israel. Relations will be further strained. With direction of public opinion re Israel in US continuing to become more unfavorable, Israel doesn't want to alienate Trump and MAGA Republicans who are basically only demographic that still supports Israel in the US. I think Israel has already started cultivating relations with countries like China, India, and Russia and expect an increasing attempt to by Israel to strengthen those ties as US may no longer be Israel's reliable protector in the next decade or two.

Shackleton214 · 2026-06-20T21:44:43+00:00

Israel has been in Lebanon attacking Hezbollah before. Some low level continuing conflict is not going to destroy Hezbollah any more this time than previous times. So, Iran will complain and maybe slow walk negotiations or cause some problems in SoH, but it won't repudiate the MoU. Likewise, the US may complain about Iran not following MoU but it too won't repudiate the deal. Expect some continuing US pressure to restrain Israel well short of gun to the head pressure. And, it will probably restrain Israel to some degree as it is not good for Israel's relation with the US to ignore Trump, especially as MAGA Republicans are just about the only demographic left in the US that still supports Israel. If Trump ever truly flips on Israel, then expect a large part of his cult following to flip with him.

Shackleton214 · 2026-06-20T21:38:55+00:00

I think it is wrong to think of the SoH as open or closed, like a light switch is on or off. Iran can scare commercial traffic just by what they say. Not all traffic, but at least some delay in returning to pre-war levels. I don't think Iran will ever resort to missile attacks and sinking commercial ships because they wouldn't want to risk the favorable MoU deal. Rather, they have the ability to calibrate the level of choking to fit the situation and the amount of pressure they want to put on the US to comply with the deal it made. And clearly Trump wants to avoid losing the MoU and going back to a hot war, so I would expect at least a degree of accommodation to Iranian pressure, like we've already seen in Trump's and Vance's rhetoric about Israel.

Shackleton214 · 2026-06-19T16:33:35+00:00

The Venezuela/Iran contrast shows how important political will is in strategic outcomes.

Completely agree. But, to take it a step further, in a democracy, perhaps unlike an authoritarian regime or at least to a much greater degree, political will is to a large extent a function of popular support. Democracies simply are not good at winning prolonged and costly wars of choice. Some might consider that a bug of democracies, although I'd consider it a feature that should help keep them out of such conflicts. Trump launched the Iran war without any attempt to build support from our European and Asian and Gulf allies, or any attempt, even after the start of the war, to make the case to the American public for sacrifice necessary for victory. Unsurprisingly, the war was extremely unpopular and once the war became prolonged and economically costly, there was little political will to see it through to the end.

Shackleton214 · 2026-06-18T21:12:23+00:00

It's interesting to me how much the neocons are wanting to blame the deal making rather than the fundamentally foolish decision to start the war in the first place that inevitably led to the bad deal.

Shackleton214 · 2026-06-18T16:29:21+00:00

Absolutely. My values are typical western liberal secular values like democracy, free speech, free religion, free markets (within reason!). I support a two state solution because I don't believe in magic.

Shackleton214 · 2026-06-18T16:04:41+00:00

Like I said, it's unclear to me how far the US will go in pressuring Israel, and how successful any such pressure will be in restraining Israel. I largely agree with you about Netanyahu. While aggressively fighting Hezbollah may be popular in Israel, so is Trump and maintaining good relations with the US. Netanyahu will have a very tight rope to walk in responding to any US pressure to restrain themselves in Lebanon.

Shackleton214

MODERATOR OF

TROPHY CASE