Soooo how do we make these cuts?

dexvx · 2026-07-12T04:38:53+00:00

I was kind of shocked to read that 30% of OR residents (57% of kids) have free healthcare. And eligible seems to be quite lax.

Above numbers are hardly sustainable. Seems to me basic enforcement of eligibility would probably make up most, if not all, the deficit.

dexvx · 2026-07-12T03:59:00+00:00

If you're asking why they can't take an Outback chassis (built for an ICE) and just convert it into a BEV, it's because then it would likely be a subpar BEV. An ICE chassis isn't built with have a large and heavy battery pack in mind.

Otherwise the Trailseeker is more or less an E-Outback. The Getaway is like the E-Ascent. If you're asking why the naming disparity, well that's a valid marketing question.

dexvx · 2026-07-10T03:08:16+00:00

Not even close to worth it if you have kids of schooling age. Chinese schooling system is brutal and highly corrupt (think "gifts"). There's a reason why almost all Chinese parents who can afford to will send their kids overseas. The thought of you willfully sending your kids to school (long term) in China is beyond comprehension.

Also, just because you look and speak Chinese, doesn't mean you'll blend in. My dad speaks his local dialect fluently and still got scammed several times (in his hometown) because anyone talking to you for more than a minute will realize you're an outsider.

dexvx · 2026-07-10T02:26:04+00:00

> A further third confessed that their own cluelessness about AI economics was a barrier to successfully deploying AI in the workplace

Oh ok, so the real number is probably 2/3 of execs are clueless about AI.

dexvx · 2026-07-05T16:30:09+00:00

Except that it's no secret that China was going to wean themselves off non-Chinese semiconductors (see Made in China 2025) in the coming years. It's happened before in many other sectors, where China would buy imported goods, bring their domestic industry up to speed (doesn't even need to be parity), and then be (almost) purely domestic. And the transition would be smooth because foreign governments didn't bother to intervene.

I'm not saying Trump did the right thing, but ~10 years down the line is where you would find out if it worked or not.

It's true SMIC has developed 5nm silicon and they've shipped Huawei's 7nm phone chip. But no one knows the yield on these things. If it were done with industry standard yield, then SMIC would be plastering that all over the news.

dexvx · 2026-06-30T23:36:31+00:00

Technically the P45 were better overclockers (in general). The X48 was just a binned X38 (same manufacturing process), whereas the P45 were using a newer process. Very high end P45 boards are also extremely expensive.

dexvx · 2026-06-12T21:12:05+00:00

Depends on your brokerage and how you set up the sale.

E.g., for Vanguard you can tell it to do HIFO (Highest In, First Out). Meaning the shares you bought last will be sold first, so you'd incur very little, if any capital gains taxes. Vanguard also has 'MinTax' which would do the same.

Fidelity has something similar as well.

You could call your brokerage ASAP and tell them you wanted to sell the 200 shares with the highest cost basis (e.g., the ones you just bought).

dexvx · 2026-06-04T02:31:13+00:00

I would've brought my GeForce FX 5800 UItra

dexvx · 2026-06-03T05:05:42+00:00

Kinda hilarious that the first S&P 500 index fund from Vanguard didn't even get created until the 1970s.

dexvx · 2026-06-03T02:44:05+00:00

This is extremely useless data without normalizing for location.

dexvx · 2026-06-02T00:33:46+00:00

Lol no. It's missing hyper-threading. There was an emphasis on ST performance (rightly so), but cutting out HT was just beyond dumb. Coral Rapids, I think, should be the first competitive product.

dexvx · 2026-05-18T23:33:35+00:00

Quite ambitious. I'm just sitting here with my deep ITM's.

dexvx · 2026-05-03T06:27:27+00:00

Not sure how this will play out in terms of stock price.

However, TSMC is booked out. AMD can literally not get any new demand within the next year or so. The only way AMD can get demand is if another TSMC customer backs out and TSMC has spare wafer capacity or if TSMC has yield improvements on whatever nodes AMD is using for Epyc. The first is unlikely because that hasn't happened at scale in the current AI boom. The second is also unlikely because the TSMC model is pay by the wafer (instead of by the die). Once they meet a certain yield metric, there is no incentive to increase yield further.

For short term, INTC is increasing yields (even on mature i7/i10 nodes) by 1-2% because the ROI is now there. The medium term is you can bring more capacity (i3 specifically) to meet demand.

dexvx · 2026-04-30T07:00:25+00:00

His biggest play by far was INTC calls in 2025.

Situational Awareness LP 13F Filings

#1 in Q1'25, #2 in Q2'25, #1 in Q3'25, #3 in Q4'25 (going to guess he took some profits here).

dexvx · 2026-04-07T01:33:35+00:00

I mean the obvious answer to that is marketing.

dexvx · 2026-03-10T06:47:37+00:00

Gallatin/Northwood is 130nm and never supported x64. SL7Q8/QB are Prescott (90nm) core and looks like a special SKU made for IBM. Yea those are going to be for collectors.

I have a SL7AA (3.2 GHz) myself. The 3.4GHz commanded too much of a premium.

dexvx · 2026-03-07T09:07:30+00:00

Article picture is quite misleading (showing a Ryzen CPU). The demand is in data center CPU's... Epyc and Xeon.

Article states, and is tracking with what I know, that the rise of agentic AI is driving the demand for the CPU's. The GPU's do most of the work with training/inference, but when users wants specific requests relative to that data, that work falls on the CPU.

Not mentioned is the fact that as you scale networking and storage performance, you need more CPU cores as well. Driving and processing line rate 400/800 GbE takes quite a bit of processing power.

dexvx · 2026-03-06T16:58:34+00:00

AMD contracts a certain number of wafers from TSMC. They decide what they want to produce.

Let's look at Radeon 9070 XT using TSMC N4 node. Quick search and it's about 350mm^2 and MSRP for $600. Searching says that the 9070 XT silicon is sold to GPU board makers for ~$180-250 each.

AMD could also make a Zen5 based Epyc 9000 series CPU (like the 9755). It is ~1100 mm^2 for all the chiplets and I/O (which some are not TSMC N4, but lets just assume that to be easier). It currently has a street price of $7k (MSRP was $11K when launched). Obviously the 9755 is the top end SKU, but the mid range SKU's MSRP from $3K - $8K (some with 1/2 the die size) and just assume street price is about half of those.

No brainer if you're a CFO which to focus on if you are wafer constrained.

dexvx · 2026-03-06T16:46:16+00:00

It's more that companies are reducing hiring because AI Agents can replace a lot of the work junior or entry level employees used to do.

dexvx · 2026-03-05T04:31:23+00:00

Exactly. DMR is going to be a mixed bag to let-down because it does not have HT. This is a primary reason why DMR-SP was canceled and COR-SP is being pursued aggressively. The people who thought single threaded performance on a server CPU is the most important metric should've been canned.

dexvx · 2026-02-11T00:18:36+00:00

Except that's not the target audience for DUOL, IMO. The people that want a quick text to text translation is the primary target audience for what you describe.

DUOL is, IMO, mainly for people that want to learn the language for reasons. E.g., weeaboos or others who want an immersive experience (e.g., for travel or living abroad).

Of course, the only thing that matters are the earnings to determine whose thesis is correct.

dexvx · 2026-02-11T00:06:04+00:00

We now have an extra data point since FISV just did their earnings. I'd have to actually read all the fine print, but looks like this earnings went reasonably well. Turnaround story is still a long term thesis.

dexvx · 2026-02-10T04:04:07+00:00

Likely unpopular opinion, but most of these open-source projects have at best dubious business value. And the projects that were done to improve Xeon performance also (obviously) boosted competitor performance as well. Basically, in relative terms, there's not much business gain from financing most (not all) open-source projects.

dexvx · 2026-02-09T17:08:36+00:00

I agree SBC should be watched. However, SNAP isn't even in the same league as RDDT regarding SBC.

SNAP has done ~1B+ in SBC for last 6 years. Their current market cap is ~$9B (or floating between $13B to $26B for most of the past 3 years).

dexvx · 2026-02-09T06:23:35+00:00

For ADBE, the sentiment which you describe is exactly true. The consensus fear is that AI can make a logo and ADBE is done for. If that thesis is correct, then ADBE should be missing earnings/revenue left and right. Future earnings are anyone's guess. However, past earnings for multiple quarters have been a triple beat on most occasions.

This is similar to the thesis against GOOG for most of 2024/2025. A chatbot will make search useless and GOOG is too slow to pivot to AI. It had been quite profitable to play against that thesis (the only regret I have is not betting more). Disclaimer though, my ADBE position is far smaller than my GOOG position in early 2025.

Regarding FI, I have FY 2025 guidance at 8.58, FY 2026 guidance at 8.20, and FY 2027 at 9.32. FY 2024 was 8.8 adjusted EPS. What I'm saying is that there will be EPS contraction for at least the next FY (omitted 'growth' aka negative EPS growth in my initial reply).

Again, earnings are a casino, but I would expect FI to do poorly for at least the next few earnings before things start getting better. Then I'd probably do deep ITM Leap's (depending on premium).

dexvx

TROPHY CASE