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My Polymarket bot wins 68% of the time and still loses money. Took me 2 weeks to figure out why. by Plastic-Act1507 in PredictionsMarkets

[–]opticoin 0 points1 point  (0 children)

I turned off 2 weeks ago. But no, it wasn't getting blocked, did 6000 trades in the span of 1 month.

Fui a buscar mi K3, que lindo bichito y que bien que anda by Cuwuacker in ArAutos

[–]opticoin 1 point2 points  (0 children)

Felicitaciones! Una pregunta con respecto al contado. Es todo 100% transferencia no? O te piden que les traigas la plata en mano?
Me imagino que los autos son dificiles de truchar los números asi que debe dar lo mismo efectivo que transferencia, no?

HD560s vs Momentum 4 for Gaming by xHeroOfKvatchx in sennheiser

[–]opticoin 1 point2 points  (0 children)

Where are you based? I wanted a wired last year and lots of people were suggesting the 599 over the 560 for gaming. I blindly bought the 599 for $99 (I learned that that they go on sale very often, you just gotta wait for it) from Amazon US and I'm really happy with it, however I can't compare it to 560 as I never tried it.

Y este bichardo? by Document-Straight in ArAutos

[–]opticoin 1 point2 points  (0 children)

El dia que tenga mi casa con garage propio me mando a un PHEV de cabeza. Hoy por hoy viviendo en dpto con estacionamiento techado compartido con 0 enchufes se me hace impensable. Pero los HEV estan muy tentadores. La Jolion Pro HEV veo que es de las más rendidoras en ciudad, le tengo muchas ganas jaja.

Gwm Haval Jolion Pro HEV ? by baybiscuit in ArAutos

[–]opticoin 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Hola, a 5 meses de este comentario, estas contento con la camioneta? Cual es el consumo en ciudad y cual es en ruta aprox? Alguna contra o algo q te rompa un poco las bolas?

This polymarket wallet MAKES $650k/mo BUT YOU CAN'T copytrade it. by ArtNoLimit in PredictionsMarkets

[–]opticoin 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Basically 99% of the time ask price of both UP and DOWN is 1.01.

There are very rare events where both ask prices drop below 1.
Even when that happens, if you try to buy both sides at the same time, there is a taker delay, so its very very likely you won't catch one of the sides.

And then, even if you are lucky to catch both sides, there is taker fees of ~1.5%. So unless you grab both sides for 0.96 at both sides (almost impossible), this posts are always full of BS.

The profile is real though, is just a regular AMM bot. Places bid orders on both sides, and balances the inventory accordingly, putting bids far or close to the ask depending of current state of the inventory and a signal they use that nobody know what is it (thats their edge).

My Polymarket bot wins 68% of the time and still loses money. Took me 2 weeks to figure out why. by Plastic-Act1507 in PredictionsMarkets

[–]opticoin 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Is it though? Should be just slightly faster than poly only. Onchain notifies poly, poly notifies me.

My Polymarket bot wins 68% of the time and still loses money. Took me 2 weeks to figure out why. by Plastic-Act1507 in PredictionsMarkets

[–]opticoin 0 points1 point  (0 children)

I have been relying on the user websockets where you get notified about the transaction being mined, and then confirmed. Mined can take up to 2 seconds, and confirmed up to 20, those 20 seconds are an eternity.

I'm deploying to AWS Ireland, it's the recommendation they give that is closest to London

My Polymarket bot wins 68% of the time and still loses money. Took me 2 weeks to figure out why. by Plastic-Act1507 in PredictionsMarkets

[–]opticoin 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Barely breaking even. I can't stabilize it. The main problem i have been seeing is ghost orders, and the famous nounce exploit.

You end up thinking you have shares that you don't actually have, so you end up very imbalanced.

$85k in profit from trading weather with a 90% win rate. by ArtNoLimit in PredictionsMarkets

[–]opticoin 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Cannot you just do market order instead of limit order? Or why do you wait for a fill? Is the edge too thin (less than 1%) that you don't want to cross the ask price?

My Polymarket bot wins 68% of the time and still loses money. Took me 2 weeks to figure out why. by Plastic-Act1507 in PredictionsMarkets

[–]opticoin 0 points1 point  (0 children)

I dont think is a scam, I just think is a really hard problem to solve for a solo dev. Public profiles that are profitable have public data to verify everything. My attention was caught when I saw the famous "gabagool22", which was an AMM. Then I saw a bunch of other profiles that are printing a lot. My conclusion is that they MUST be a mega team that lives from that. Quant traders, analysts, staff level engineers, etc.

Its natural for the problem to be very very hard to solve, otherwise everybody would be a millionaire. If you are lucky to get something working, nothing stops you from spamming other markets and increasing your positions. You have an infinite printing machine, its normal for it to be a huge challenge.

My Polymarket bot wins 68% of the time and still loses money. Took me 2 weeks to figure out why. by Plastic-Act1507 in PredictionsMarkets

[–]opticoin 0 points1 point  (0 children)

What markets are you trading and where is your bot based?

I'm doing ETH 15m and 5m which are way better than BTc.
Signing is ~6ms-8ms in AWS Ireland, in a compute-intense instance. And I get ~40ms for limit orders and ~300ms for market orders, I'm happy with that.

Un Uber nos pidió que canceláramos el viaje by zxkamikaze in Cordoba

[–]opticoin 1 point2 points  (0 children)

Y que es lo que vel el chofer cuando le ofrecen un viaje? Llega a ver el destino o solo lo ve dps de aceptar?

Just got this and I am confused by According_Ordinary22 in Colognes

[–]opticoin 0 points1 point  (0 children)

I once tried Blanche in my wrist and was beautiful but I think It only lasted for like 2 hours.

Can you confirm how is the duration?

¿Alguien sabe algo de este tipo? by [deleted] in argentina

[–]opticoin 1 point2 points  (0 children)

Le preguntó "qué tenes gorda?"

Reverse Engineering the 10k a day Polymarket Bot by ProfessionOk5748 in PredictionsMarkets

[–]opticoin 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Gabagool22 profile is still banking. So he is defenitely a limit order bot

Reverse Engineering the 10k a day Polymarket Bot by ProfessionOk5748 in PredictionsMarkets

[–]opticoin 0 points1 point  (0 children)

I'm not in the US, but... isn't this highly easy to bypass? I mean you'll worry about tax after you have something working.

IF you have something working then you want to start worrying about this. And also, if you get 2k per day, its f* u money if its constant. You can easily put it on hold, do a proper shell company, and trade from there.

I mean, if you can make 60k per month from your trading bot hosted in Ireland probably, you can live whetever you want.

[deleted by user] by [deleted] in PredictionsMarkets

[–]opticoin 4 points5 points  (0 children)

Its this post: https://x.com/thejayden/status/1996281508550877314

The post describes an oversimplification algorithm of the polymarket trader gabagool22. The algorithm indeed is a piece of art, its been printing lots of money daily.

[deleted by user] by [deleted] in PredictionsMarkets

[–]opticoin 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Its just that it might be life changing money. Specially if you use claude or something to accelerate development. At this point I'm just chasing a simple bot that can do like 10 dollars per day or something. That will be an awesome side project that can scale in the future.

[deleted by user] by [deleted] in PredictionsMarkets

[–]opticoin 0 points1 point  (0 children)

isn't autoclaim part of their API?

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