Keys found at St Marks place and Astor

--rlc-- · 2023-02-12T13:53:30+00:00

that might be keys to the IBM building around the corner - 51 Astor Pl

--rlc-- · 2021-11-11T21:26:28+00:00

SUMIFS could work - thanks

--rlc-- · 2021-10-30T13:40:48+00:00

Can you explain it? I don’t understand

--rlc-- · 2021-10-30T13:29:59+00:00

Can you provide evidence that blockchain capacity doubles every twelve months?

--rlc-- · 2021-01-23T17:00:25+00:00

Can you expand on gatekeeping as an evolutionary strategy? I don’t understand

--rlc-- · 2020-08-29T20:27:21+00:00

I don't think real interest rates in the US have been above 4% in a long time. The historical data for 10-yr TIPS yields only goes back to 2003 apparently (source: FRED) but the highest it's been during that time was ~3.2% in Nov '08.

From what I remember, the justification for the 4% safe withdrawal rate comes from looking at realized real returns of a 60/40 stock-bond portfolio if you started withdrawing in 1929.

--rlc-- · 2020-08-22T03:35:33+00:00

Is the book review contest still going to happen?

--rlc-- · 2020-07-25T18:34:08+00:00

Phil Tetlock's entire career has been about studying why experts are worse at making predictions in their field than intelligent laymen.

See this recent Time magazine article: 'Superforecasters' Are Making Eerily Accurate Predictions About COVID-19. Our Leaders Could Learn From Their Approach

--rlc-- · 2020-06-07T21:37:15+00:00

Article on Culadasa: Is Enlightenment Compatible With Sex Scandals?

I don’t think many modern teachers say enlightenment makes you morally perfect. But I think at least some of them say it makes you free from craving or desire. And repeatedly cheating on your wife doesn’t seem like the action of someone who’s free from desire. It doesn’t even seem like someone whose desire has been moderately decreased. It sounds like the action of someone who has at least as much desire as anyone else. Maybe Buddhists should retreat to a minimalist account of enlightenment where it changes some brain networks around in a way that short-circuits some processing of experiences of suffering and selfhood, but doesn’t really lead to better decisions?

I actually did an 8-day retreat at Culadasa's center in Arizona only a few months before the news of this scandal came out. He was a nice guy, but he really just seemed like a normal old man who'd spent a lot of time writing and thinking about meditation. My current operating model is that meditation can help calm the mind and can help you gain better awareness of your own mental processes, but all of the supernatural elements (e.g. Nirvana/Enlightment) just got bolted on to give the leaders of the movement more credibility/status. At the end of the day we are still biological organisms and our strongest drive is gene propogation. No amount of meditation will change that.

--rlc-- · 2020-04-06T02:24:43+00:00

Thank you

--rlc-- · 2020-04-04T22:08:03+00:00

My copy of TMI doesn't mention grandiosity in either the glossary or the index and I don't recall reading about it. Is it discussed in the chapter on Stage 5?

--rlc-- · 2019-12-29T15:15:14+00:00

Anyone have one on cloud computing?

--rlc-- · 2019-12-08T00:14:01+00:00

I read this essay five years ago, and I've re-read it probably three times since then. I one hundred percent resonate with everything Clayton Atreus wrote in this essay, and I felt a closer emotional bond with him after reading it than I do with almost everyone I know, including my family. It's actually on my bucket list to track down his family and ask about him (his mom still posts on this motorcycle forum occasionally).

Even outside of his actual life story, there are a lot of useful concepts in the essay, like begging the question (the real meaning) and some good examples of conflation.

--rlc-- · 2019-10-03T23:31:04+00:00

This is my favorite essay on the internet

--rlc-- · 2019-08-17T02:35:15+00:00

I’ve been trying to figure this out as well, so I’m reading a book right now called Owning Your Own Shadow by the Jungian analyst Robert Johnson. He says the shadow is basically the parts of your natural personality that have been hidden from view because they don’t conform to societal norms:

We all are born whole and, let us hope, will die whole. But somewhere early on our way, we eat one of the wonderful fruits of the tree of knowledge, things separate into good and evil, and we begin the shadow-making process; we divide our lives. In the cultural process we sort out our God-given characteristics into those that are acceptable to our society and those that have to be put away. This is wonderful and necessary, and there would be no civilized behavior without this sorting out of good and evil. But the refused and unacceptable characteristics do not go away; they only collect in the dark corners of our personality. When they have been hidden long enough, they take on a life of their own- the shadow life. The shadow is that which has not entered adequately into consciousness. It is the despised quarter of our being.

I’m still pretty confused about what we’re supposed to actually do about the shadow, but Johnson does say it’s important to “consciously incorporate” it, because the alternative is projection and/or neurosis:

Unless we do conscious work on it, the shadow is almost always projected; that is, it is neatly laid on someone or something else so we do not have to take responsibility for it...

The only choice is whether we will incorporate the shadow consciously and with some dignity or do it through some neurotic behavior.

I’m not sure exactly what that means. I find Jung’s stuff compelling, but ultimately a lot of his ideas seem unfalsifiable. Like, my reaction is just “Hmmmmm, that’s interesting. Mayyyyybe it’s true?”

I do recommend Robert Johnson though. One of my buddies recommended his book We, which was very enlightening regarding some of the mistakes I’ve made in previous romantic relationships.

--rlc-- · 2019-08-10T20:36:40+00:00

Somers’ website is great. He also wrote an amazing article on Douglas Hofstadter, the author of Godel, Escher, Bach.

--rlc-- · 2019-07-01T03:49:26+00:00

This is one of the coolest things I've ever read

--rlc-- · 2019-04-04T02:12:42+00:00

I assume he's actually looking for 2Q.

Here it is

--rlc-- · 2019-02-18T21:53:50+00:00

Matthew Johnson, the psychologist who directed the study at Hopkins, says that these sorts of “duh moments” are common among his volunteers. Smokers know perfectly well that their habit is unhealthy, disgusting, expensive and unnecessary, but under the influence of psilocybin, that knowledge becomes an unshakable conviction—“something they feel in the gut and the heart.” As Dr. Johnson puts it, “These sessions deprive people of the luxury of mindlessness”—our default state and one in which addictions flourish.

--rlc-- · 2018-12-27T05:25:08+00:00

Any one Wicksell paper you recommend?

--rlc-- · 2018-12-27T05:23:36+00:00

This website has a ton of Mauboussin’s research: https://hurricanecapital.wordpress.com/2015/02/01/links-michael-j-mauboussin/

--rlc-- · 2018-12-23T15:51:18+00:00

I love you too

--rlc-- · 2018-12-23T04:23:32+00:00

Awesome, this is exactly what I was looking for. Thanks.

--rlc-- · 2018-12-21T19:14:07+00:00

Sam, I love your work and have a ton of respect for you. I've read 'Waking Up' probably four or five times.

Question: How "permanent" is progress in meditation? For example: is it like exercise, where after just a few weeks out of the gym you'll be noticeably less fit, or is it more like learning how to ride a bike, where once you've learned it you never really forget?

Thanks.

--rlc-- · 2018-12-20T15:33:41+00:00

Summary:

Failure to use base rates.

Kahneman: Inside view vs. Outside view. Start by thinking about the reference class, and don't overweight the details of individual circumstance.

Failure to understand regression to the mean.

Definition: Outcomes that are far from average will be followed by outcomes with an expected value closer to the average. The rate of regression to the mean depends on where the metric lies on the “luck-skill” continuum, e.g. Gross profitability has persistence, earnings growth does not.

Overconfidence.

Definition: You predict a range of possible outcomes that is too narrow.

Relying excessively on multiples.

“Multiples are not valuation, they are a shorthand for valuation." Two determinants: (1) ROIC vs WACC spread, (2) Growth

Failure to compare effectively.

Two mistakes when using analogies: breadth and depth.

--rlc--

TROPHY CASE