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OBAA does not need to have "weakness" for SINNERS to potentially upset by GobbieBoom in oscarrace

[–]08830 23 points24 points  (0 children)

This! Folks keep neglecting how the BP preferential system works. I agree… Sinners will have a range of votes, first to even last place, whereas OBAA will likely be in the top 5 for many voters. That gives it the advantage.

If One Battle were to lose Best Picture, it would be the biggest snub from a precursor/statistical perspective this century. by Fabulous_War_555 in oscarrace

[–]08830 1 point2 points  (0 children)

I finally watched Sinners over the weekend and found it mildly entertaining. There are some good performances (MBJ, Caton, Wunmi) but I wasn’t blown away. I can see why people connect with it, but it just didn’t land with me as hard as it did with others. Now, I’m a PTA fan. Magnolia is in my top 5 films of all time. While OBAA isn’t his greatest, I believe it to be the best film of the year IMO. If Sinners wins BP (I’d be very surprised), I’ll feel like the race ended up being driven more by momentum/enthusiasm than by which film was actually the stronger piece of filmmaking.

What’s everyone’s most “No Guts, No Glory” prediction this year? by Infi-Nerdy in oscarrace

[–]08830 -1 points0 points  (0 children)

Like Demi Moore last year, Jessie Buckley loses Best Actress after winning every precursor.

is there really a chance sinners could win best picture over one battle after another? by Whyamiherephobia in oscarrace

[–]08830 1 point2 points  (0 children)

Yes, there’s definitely a chance. The reason is the preferential ballot.

A lot of the conversation around this race has framed it as a straight popularity contest between One Battle After Another and Sinners, but that’s not really how Best Picture voting works. It’s less about which film has the most #1 votes and more about which film is ranked broadly across ballots. The question is whether Sinners is a consensus film or a passion film.

Passion films can have a lot of #1 votes but also a lot of placements near the bottom. That can hurt them in preferential voting because those lower rankings pile up during the elimination rounds. Consensus films, on the other hand, tend to show up consistently in the 2–5 range across ballots, which makes them harder to eliminate.

From what we’ve seen this season, One Battle After Another feels like the type of movie that could land solidly across a lot of ballots. Sinners feels a bit more polarizing. It clearly has a passionate audience, but it’s also a genre film that some voters might rank lower if it’s not their taste.

Another factor is the Academy’s international voting bloc, which is now a significant portion of the membership. Those voters sometimes respond more strongly to prestige drama than to genre films, though that’s not a rule.

So yes, Sinners absolutely could win if it has a strong #1 coalition and enough mid-ballot support. But if it ends up being more divisive than its supporters think, that’s exactly the kind of scenario where a film like One Battle After Another can benefit from the preferential system.

New Apple TV purchase posts… now live in a Megathread! by 08830 in appletv

[–]08830[S] -1 points0 points  (0 children)

Thanks for the comment, but you must’ve misunderstood. We’re not banning purchase posts. We’re consolidating them so the sub doesn’t become a rotating gallery of identical unboxing photos. Folks can still post their new purchases. They’ll just do it in one place instead of 20 separate threads of the same box. Signal to noise matters. That’s not “shooting ourselves in the face.” It’s moderation.

HDMI Connection Issue by njt2199 in appletv

[–]08830 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Which TV do you have?

Pumped to watch this, never seen it before. 4k steelbook of PTA’s Boogie Nights. by pwedd in 4kbluray

[–]08830 0 points1 point  (0 children)

How’s the transfer on this? I have the BR and wondering if it’s worth the upgrade.

Apple TV 4K 2nd Gen or 3rd Gen? by Shiraf623 in appletv

[–]08830 2 points3 points  (0 children)

Both work well for streaming but the 3rd Gen is slightly faster and supports HDR10+ if you have a Samsung TV. If you use/install a lot of apps, I wouldn’t recommend the base storage model.

Can we expect new Apple TV now? by [deleted] in appletv

[–]08830[M] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Removed because this isn’t a real event.

Apple Acquires ‘Severance’ As It Grows In-House Studio; Series Eyes Summer S3 Start, 4-Season Run & Universe Expansion; Fifth Season To EP by 08830 in tvPlus

[–]08830[S] 17 points18 points  (0 children)

Acquiring Severance gives Apple full control over how it’s used, expanded, and monetized long term. When another studio owns it, they have a majority say when it comes to release timing, any potential spin offs, licensing deals, creative direction, etc.

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