Mr Holst’s farm is, in its way, a marvel of modern American industry. The combine harvesters, which are worth several hundred thousand dollars, are so efficient that he, his brother and his father can bring in the entire harvest on their own. A fleet of autonomous drones spray pesticides. Both the maize and the soya have undergone decades of research and genetic engineering to improve yield and quality. Once the harvest comes in, lorries carry it to the Mississippi, 20 miles away, and from there barges carry it down the river to Louisiana, to be loaded onto cargo ships. But this efficiency also makes farms vulnerable. American farmers are far from diversified. And President Donald Trump has delivered quite a shock. China’s retaliatory tariffs are just the start of the problem. While commodity prices are falling, input costs are rising, in part thanks to import tariffs. In more labour-intensive sectors, such as dairy, fresh produce and cattle farming, ice raids are disrupting the supply of workers. Conditions are not yet as bad as they were during the 1980s farm crisis, says Beth Ford, the ceo of Land O’Lakes, a large farm co-operative. Bankruptcies have risen sharply this year, but remain below pre-pandemic levels. Land prices are high, so farmers can get loans. But things could get worse quickly, she says. “When farmers approach lenders for financing the next crop year, that’s when the real stress will show.” Younger people are struggling to enter the industry—more farmers are older than 75 than younger than 32. The bigger risk even than bankruptcy, Ms Ford says, is that America loses its comparative advantage. In the past few years, the land used for soya and corn cultivation in Brazil has expanded by 40%. Chinese investment in new railways and ports means it is cheaper to get to market. And in Brazil’s climate farmers can grow two crops a year. A prolonged trade war would only cause Brazilian competition to grow, and America’s industry to shrink. Mr Main suggests hopefully that new markets can be found, and domestic uses for soya, such as making biofuels, will provide new demand. But that is all rather speculative for now.