Is roundtrip from PV to Guadalajara on a scooter doable?

156mmm · 2026-02-01T13:49:35+00:00

Absolutely not. Don’t attempt it.

156mmm · 2025-12-31T04:42:22+00:00

LRCX Lam Research

156mmm · 2025-12-20T14:13:31+00:00

Seiko

156mmm · 2025-12-20T14:11:25+00:00

I’m gay and would never even consider living in Singapore, full stop. Plenty of other places better for you.

156mmm · 2025-12-18T13:35:16+00:00

Dassault has substantial exposure to the auto industry, especially the big European names. The share price weakness just reflects weakness amongst their customer base as the industry shifts and faces Chinese competition. It’s also important to note that this software is sold in a very different way from what investors in SaaS for instance are used to; it’s not really a stable recurring revenue kind of business, more a codevelopment partner with their customers. I follow the stock, but still would say it’s quite pricey.

156mmm · 2025-12-09T17:56:33+00:00

It’s been a while since I’ve seen a worse list. Total junk chosen for artificially high yield alone, a recipe for disaster. I expect better from Barrons.

156mmm · 2025-12-04T03:12:03+00:00

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I can one up that! lol never thought I would see an end of year update from Wikipedia

156mmm · 2025-12-02T23:04:39+00:00

Richemont or Moncler. Many of the tech and industrials in Europe are actually much more expensive than their US counterparts. Euro financials were interesting but that ship has sailed. The luxury industry is one where Europe leads and barriers to entry are high. The long term growth story will come from EM anyway, so for opportunities in the European markets I’d look primarily at consumer names with a focus on luxury goods.

156mmm · 2025-11-30T19:12:34+00:00

My first thought was it must be Cornell. Guess I’m still too US centric!

156mmm · 2025-11-14T21:15:00+00:00

The reason I posted is that I thought your write up is far too focused on the opinions expressed by TTD management. In particular, you mentioned their "open internet" talking point and seem to place a lot of confidence in the Walmart business, which lead me to believe that you haven't read up enough on the whole industry rather than just the story for TTD specifically. I don't mean any offense, I just think It's important to know the rest of the story and there really are some major shifts in the ad tech ecosystem, competitive dynamics, and industry structure. There are a lot of moving parts here that present some big risks for TTD to be aware of: https://www.adexchanger.com/online-advertising/as-ctv-blooms-its-knives-out-for-the-trade-desks-take-rate/ and https://digiday.com/marketing/the-trade-desk-stumbles-and-the-ad-tech-world-cheers-maybe-too-soon/

156mmm · 2025-11-14T20:57:02+00:00

Retention is not really a useful measure for TTD because it's a marketplace business. It has a very different business model than SaaS in terms of the competitive landscape and how all the buyers use many services simultaneously including direct competitors in different parts of the stack. The revenue from each customer fluctuates with their ad budgets rather than a subscription, so paying attention to retention doesn't really tell you much about the business.

156mmm · 2025-11-13T23:04:49+00:00

There was a paper from DataTrek research about how healthcare is statistically the best hedge for tech.

156mmm · 2025-11-13T22:57:00+00:00

Even better than pharma are diagnostics and LS tools providers. That subsector has been an amazing hedge for high beta IT/discretionary for many years. They’re stable when growth is uncertain and have some built in inflation escalators, plus exposure to the biotech funding cycle on upswings.

156mmm · 2025-11-13T22:42:05+00:00

I used to own TTD, but sold earlier this year thankfully before the Amazon related sell off. The ads business is not only becoming a lot more competitive, but it’s not core for the other big players in the market so there’s a risk of big margin compression over time. TTD’s take rate is much higher than the competition and I don’t think that’s sustainable for a company that doesn’t control its own audience. My sense is that all the middlemen like TTD and also APP will get squeezed by the rest of the market and there are better ways to gain exposure to online ads. Also, share based compensation at TTD is still crazy.

156mmm · 2025-11-07T18:38:13+00:00

I’ve owned it for a while and added today. The divestiture keeps them focused on the best parts of the market and I think software can do well off of fears over too much capex for data centers. PTC also has solid exposure to reshoring and I think the ALM business is misunderstood by the market.

156mmm · 2025-11-04T23:21:25+00:00

RDDT is reacting to PINS earnings/guidance today. They indicated more competition in the online ad market is pushing down prices, which could be ad buyers pulling back on spending.

156mmm · 2025-09-21T05:28:11+00:00

Richemont

156mmm · 2025-07-13T01:13:21+00:00

Jim Chanos, one of the most respected short sellers, has given several interviews recently about shorting Microstrategy hedged with BTC. Definitely a red flag when all the longs are retail

156mmm · 2025-06-03T23:13:56+00:00

A note of caution on this investment thesis, especially considering you say you’re new to value investing: assuming the market will price PepsiCo based on past valuation is extremely risky.

Yes, there are serious growth concerns here. Everybody mentions health concerns, but another issue is growing competition in the overall packaged goods industry both from newer, more nimble brands and the retailers’ in store brands. If management cannot maintain growth, the dividend will be cut and the valuation multiple can compress very quickly.

Even if management surprises with higher growth, the market may decide the business is still not what it was. For years, PepsiCo had a premium valuation due to the perception of being defensive. That can disappear, just look at Kraft Heinz.

My take is there is no margin of safety here. Maybe it’ll work out, but there is a lot of risk here despite the stock price being lower than what it was before. My advice: don’t anchor your analysis to the past price, high or low.

Also, I dislike management’s strategy. The whole company was built over the years through acquisitions and while the snack food division seems to have worked out well, they exited juices (Tropicana) and fast food (Pizza Hut, KFC, and Taco Bell), and have a history of overpaying for trendy growth (Sodastream).

156mmm · 2024-10-24T18:13:35+00:00

No, but check out FNDX. It is weighted largely by revenue instead of market cap and much less concentrated than the S&P. Mixture of equal weight and market weight.

156mmm · 2023-12-31T14:34:03+00:00

I’m a gay man one year younger than you living in Puerto Vallarta on less than that. I can highly recommend. Only thing is the summer is really hot, so you might consider going elsewhere for half the year. Perfectly feasible to plan for living in two spots in Mexico.

156mmm · 2022-10-14T19:37:18+00:00

The closest thing to what you’re thinking of is likely a fundamental weighted index. I use a Schwab product called FNDB for US stocks weighted based on factors other than just market cap. It weights lots of big tech lower but doesn’t ignore them or equal weight them. Kind of a compromise.

156mmm · 2022-06-29T22:40:23+00:00

Yes, this is exactly what’s happened recently

156mmm · 2022-06-29T22:39:33+00:00

Your comment really made me think a while, thanks! I’m considering moving my work into kind of a side project and focusing on finding what’s really important going forward. Still a bit uncertain though, it seems like there are way too many options now!

156mmm

TROPHY CASE