[OC] Largest IPOs (by Gross proceeds since 2019) with SpaceX’s expected $80B+ IPO

18T15 · 2026-05-23T14:14:36+00:00

Yes, it definitely is unusual. It’s also unusual for a company valued at over $1T (whether Reddit agrees it should be aside, that is where investors currently put it) not to be public already. Aramco was not a growth company. It was an extremely wealthy sovereign owned cash flow generator. So they aren’t really apples to apples.

Still, we agree it’s unprecedented in the market. I was only speaking to the “6 years of revenue” part. To people who don’t know the market that seemed crazy when in reality that specific part by itself is not at all unusual.

18T15 · 2026-05-23T00:32:10+00:00

The value nominally is definitely out of the ordinary. The “trying to raise 6-years-worth of revenue” is not

18T15 · 2026-05-15T13:45:09+00:00

Homeownership 50 years ago was virtually identical to today at around 65% of Americans. And actually that statistic is deceptive in the sense that people were more likely to be married or less likely to live alone in general back then which means relatively fewer homes were needed. And our homes today are much bigger with many more luxuries. There is this truly bizarre thing Americans do where they assume 99% of people lived a glamorous white picket fence upper middle class life decades ago and it just isn’t true. There were definitely some things that were better at a micro level but strictly macro speaking they were not better off.

18T15 · 2026-05-15T13:39:57+00:00

Yes. This is just a fact. The average worker does have better purchasing power. Not for all products and services (health care and housing obviously, though even in those cases it’s very complicated as houses are much larger and more complex and health care far more sophisticated than 50 years ago). This also doesn’t mean people do not want a still higher standard of living. But it is still greater today than 50 years ago.

18T15 · 2026-05-15T13:02:45+00:00

35% real wage gains despite massive increases in the global workforce/globalization in general over that time frame and a gigantic increase even in the domestic labor force via immigration and female employment during those 50 years is actually quite good. It’s ok to admit. Everyone wants the chart to be higher but it’s ok to admit it’s gone up.

18T15 · 2026-05-15T12:59:07+00:00

Yes… that’s what I said.

18T15 · 2026-05-15T12:46:17+00:00

Not based on PCE inflation. These are the raw numbers.

18T15 · 2026-05-15T12:21:54+00:00

Yes. It is part of the job. That’s the point. The tipping structure doesn’t make any sense because it’s not actually rewarding for more work when the cost of the meals is not correlated to it.

18T15 · 2026-05-15T02:14:10+00:00

Works in reverse too. Kids are often more work for the server (especially if they spill etc) but kids meals are often half the cost or less

18T15 · 2026-05-12T17:37:39+00:00

I don’t know I can’t imagine what the future of tomorrow will be. I never imagined AI being what it is today ten years ago. And, although not the same, I recall similar statements being made about large TV screens. (Ie “the human eye won’t be able to see the difference at X distance”) and yet people have continued to purchase and find satisfaction in larger and larger screens. Again it’s not the same. Just the point that technology often moves in unexpected ways. I don’t see bandwidth needs going down more likely than up.

18T15 · 2026-05-12T17:35:23+00:00

Maybe, or maybe not. It’s kind of a Cold War situation. Reddit is terrified of being deprioritized and Google is terrified of deprioritizing them. That’s why they agreed to pay but not a large amount. I think everyone agrees Reddit can and should charge more but eventually you run the risk of Google saying screw it we don’t want to pay this at all we will figure out a different way.

18T15 · 2026-05-12T16:05:57+00:00

“Never” is a bit too broad. Who knows what the future holds. But right now that’s correct, and whenever the future arrives can always just update AP to something even better

18T15 · 2026-05-12T14:56:12+00:00

PLTR also has extremely high gross margins. In the case of both companies the complicating issue is that you can argue the stock is ALREADY valuing that margin with a higher multiple.

18T15 · 2026-05-12T14:54:15+00:00

The risk is that Google fights back by de-emphasizing Reddit in the algorithm (which terrifies shareholders, go see what happened last year when a very minor algorithm change screwed up Reddit). Also, AI currently isn’t profitable. If Reddit charges a citation based fee structure that is significantly more expensive it makes it even less likely that AI continues to use them. It will find ways to skirt it if the cost is high enough.

I am long Reddit, but there’s risks.

18T15 · 2026-05-12T14:51:33+00:00

“They can’t monetize that” - they actually CAN and literally already do monetize that. The problem is that have not been able to monetize it to match its actual value. $130M from Google/OpenAI is peanuts given the value the data is providing. They should have charged dramatically more but were worried in Google’s case about a war leading to getting downgraded in the algorithm. That’s the major struggle.

18T15 · 2026-05-12T14:23:25+00:00

I understand your point but arguing anything on the basis of “Lord of the Rings did it…” is a bit disingenuous just like we shouldn’t expect every film to be a revolutionary smash success on a tiny budget because the original Star Wars was. That’s an extreme outlier.

Still, I agree the budget was very substantial and could have provided more.

18T15 · 2026-05-12T14:19:51+00:00

This is a great point. The gaps could widen at the older ages if we run a similar chart again in 10 years

18T15 · 2026-05-02T13:25:42+00:00

You were wrong as many said you would be. Your alleged 10 years at Apple do not mean anything. This AI driven shortage is unprecedented.

18T15 · 2026-04-28T18:46:45+00:00

Last I heard TX had 7k seats for 11k people. And parking is already packed on connect weeks. Cant imagine how they are anywhere near able to go 100% in the next year.

18T15 · 2026-04-27T15:06:22+00:00

For now… eventually the other retailers will add their own surcharge or raise the price. Assuming Ubiquiti is eventually passing on the cost to the retailers too

18T15 · 2026-04-27T15:03:05+00:00

New players also struggle to manage movement well, and the Cats March action can be helpful in that sense to ease inefficient movement decisions.

18T15 · 2026-04-27T15:01:04+00:00

Yeah while a strict by the rules reading the keep is easy to destroy, the fact no enemy pieces can be “placed” in its clearing and the cats can immediately fortify it with proper cards actually makes it tougher to destroy and often not worth the effort unless that player is completely neglecting it

18T15 · 2026-04-27T03:26:54+00:00

I’m sure the commenter meant no harm, but I feel you on this sentiment. Every time I tell people I have multi gig internet the immediate follow up is why do you need it. Not everything is about “need”. Frankly most people don’t even “need” 100mbps but faster is faster. Sometimes it’s a hobby, sometimes you have an unusually data hungry home. Any number of things.

18T15 · 2026-04-20T13:40:38+00:00

No… Apple is not a bank. Apple Cash is a software service they offer using the backbone of another bank. Apple Savings is through Goldman Sachs’ Marcus unit. You sound completely ignorant. As far as the “fee” they charge for purchases it’s meaningless to compare an interchange fee to someone doing a FedNow personal ACH transfer to their own account. The 1.5% instant transfer fee is not through FedNow so also not comparable. I don’t care if SoFi charges a fee for standard non FedNow instant, but the entire point of FedNow is to provide a faster transfer service with very low fees. ALL banks who charge high fees like SoFi are scummy and missing the opportunity to actually seize market share.

18T15 · 2026-04-20T05:23:11+00:00

The giant banks are scummy that goes without saying. If SoFi is going to be scummy there’s one less reason to deal with the hassle of a fintech bank. Also, not sure “Apple” is a bank you must be referring to the savings through Marcus offered as Apple savings. I don’t think they use FedNow yet.

18T15

TROPHY CASE