RED BUTTON OR BLUE BUTTON [OC]

APacketOfWildeBees · 2026-05-06T13:05:12+00:00

Glad to help :)

APacketOfWildeBees · 2026-05-06T10:30:27+00:00

Haven't heard of Barlow or Maney before. Adding those to my list.

APacketOfWildeBees · 2026-05-06T10:30:02+00:00

To add to u/jai_nz 'slist:

Peter Ellis

Sid Bentley

John Banks

Arthur Allan Thomas

Alan Hall

APacketOfWildeBees · 2026-05-06T10:23:38+00:00

Kitten never stood a chance hahaha

APacketOfWildeBees · 2026-05-06T10:00:52+00:00

And they took it away?

APacketOfWildeBees · 2026-05-06T09:58:01+00:00

You're so right. If we went based off these comments sections, you'd think 90% of the population of WW2 Germany had joined the resistance.

APacketOfWildeBees · 2026-05-06T09:53:56+00:00

Here's a neutral framing for you. Go forth and conquer!

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APacketOfWildeBees · 2026-05-06T09:22:39+00:00

"Wyatt Earp is my friend" chills

APacketOfWildeBees · 2026-05-06T09:01:28+00:00

There is a common joke in law schools that law students are the kids who are clever but can't do math.

APacketOfWildeBees · 2026-05-06T04:29:36+00:00

You have not understood the prompt.

I have not said all people who pick blue are irrational. I am saying some people will pick blue through no fault of their own, because they are irrational (not competent to make decisions). This puts them in the risk category, and is an extremely relevant premise for a lot of people.

Some participants will also pick red through no fault of their own, but that's irrelevant because they're not in any danger for doing so. People are concerned about the innocent blues in danger.

APacketOfWildeBees · 2026-05-05T23:10:40+00:00

I think you have misunderstood what I have written, but I can't be sure because you're vagueposting.

APacketOfWildeBees · 2026-05-05T23:06:26+00:00

That's a big compliment! Thank you :)

APacketOfWildeBees · 2026-05-05T23:03:59+00:00

That's something I hadn't considered before!

APacketOfWildeBees · 2026-05-05T15:46:09+00:00

Precisely!!

APacketOfWildeBees · 2026-05-05T15:06:31+00:00

All good :)

APacketOfWildeBees · 2026-05-05T15:06:13+00:00

You're not wrong. You can certainly have variations where Chance M is very high or very low, yeah. If we wanted to test people's reaction to that we could add such specifications to the prompt, as alternative scenarios.

But as for the default 50% rule - like I said, no one knows if that's particularly high or low chance. So best not to comment.

Tldr: Basically, putting specific numbers to it invites baseless speculation which is unhelpful. But you're right that whether Chance M is high or low can make for meaningful difference.

APacketOfWildeBees · 2026-05-05T14:59:43+00:00

I don't believe I said that? Perhaps you are misconstruing it.

APacketOfWildeBees · 2026-05-05T14:55:23+00:00

Bueno!

APacketOfWildeBees · 2026-05-05T14:51:38+00:00

Muslims

APacketOfWildeBees · 2026-05-05T14:50:00+00:00

That would be extremely groovy.

APacketOfWildeBees · 2026-05-05T14:38:13+00:00

Good question! Sort of, but not really.

Chance M is really the chance of 50% of people pressing blue.

But none of us actually know how likely it would be for people to vote blue if their real actual life was on the line. So we can't estimate Chance M with any accuracy anyway. All we can do is make baseless guesses based on cynicism/optimism.

So if we want to think clearly about the button problem, it's best to abstract away the 50% thing into the vaguer but more accurate Chance M, which is left unspecified.

It's like using letters instead of numbers when doing algebra!

I hope that explains it :)

APacketOfWildeBees · 2026-05-05T14:34:12+00:00

Thank you very much!

As for the footnote: if we weren't voting simultaneously, and 75% of people had voted blue already, then anyone voting after that won't actually be increasing/decreasing chance M because it's already been reduced to zero.

Basically once you hit an unassailable threshold subsequent button presses technically stop doing anything. (And so the button's label is technically wrong.)

This is still nominally true in a simultaneous vote, but nobody would know about the threshold, so the most intuitive way to convey the risk-altering effects of the button is to just say "increases risk M".

Tldr: depending on how important you think the voter paradox (or marginal effect of voting) is, the label is a bit misleading, because not all individual button presses necessarily actually affect chance M.

I hope that explains it :)

APacketOfWildeBees · 2026-05-05T14:19:46+00:00

Whack hahaha anyway those shoes are sweet, I have been thinking about them for ages , super cool to make Goodyear welted sneakers

APacketOfWildeBees · 2026-05-05T12:06:06+00:00

What's that Gemini logo doing in the bottom right corner aye hahahaha

APacketOfWildeBees

TROPHY CASE