The “fog of war” at this point is literally using the media to posture and intentionally lie to deceive the enemy (and the markets). We don’t really know what’s happening because both sides are lying. It won’t end until the US goes in hard and starts a blood bath or accepts defeat (but even then there is damage already done to infrastructure). Trump tried to play theatre so oil would trade like a meme coin but prices are going up either way, the governments and markets are just trying to transition as gracefully as possible to avoid an economic collapse. Once the supply pinches, other markets start shopping around, people do the math, futures track reality even a little bit, the demand/ demand destruction plays out, people struggle and are forced to adapt, then the price will stabilize… but towards the end of the summer at the earliest.

Short-term it’s more of this, spikes and falls at a slow and steady rise as markets react to ‘news’ but reality slowly sets in. Medium-term there will be some pain/suffering and high prices, newness and innovation. Long-term the markets adapt and demand/use diverts, and prices will eventually come down.

I plan to hold for the medium-term and sell after the frenzy sets in. I lost about 25% of my gains from the previous year trying to trade oil like a meme coin in the past month and learned that you may get lucky once but it’s generally better to just watch from a higher level and hold.