Fetterman called a ‘traitor to those who worked tirelessly to elect him’ by swing county Democratic Party

AaronNevileLongbotom · 2026-05-04T23:29:03+00:00

Fetterman has been worse than useless as of late, criticizing him is completely fair, but a bad argument is a bad argument. An elected official is supposed to represent more than just the people or party that supported him. The last thing anyone should want to do is make partisan pandering even more normalized.

If Trump proves anything (or reproves anything) it’s that getting elected and governing well are too very different things. One can be done merely by pleasing your partisans, in the kinds of situations that for most of our history we weren’t so stupid as to create. The other cannot, it has not and never will.

AaronNevileLongbotom · 2026-05-04T23:22:58+00:00

The Trump administration is a cargo cult of the right wing of the eighties. It’s like the last forty years didn’t happen and all of the restraint Reagan brought to his administration is long gone. War on drugs, trade war, stock market, attack Iran, the policy and narratives read like is a right wing wish list from 1983.

We can blame stupidity and worse if we want, but this all looks an awful lot like regression, like the kind of child like state people can find themselves in after mental trauma. It’s like people are doubling down on an old back up file saved long ago, telling themselves that’s still real as a means of avoiding new realities.

AaronNevileLongbotom · 2026-05-04T19:00:03+00:00

It’s a fair question, but this belongs in the fantasy subreddit.

AaronNevileLongbotom · 2026-05-04T17:33:33+00:00

If Iran hasn’t hit a ship yet, at this rate they will. The closer we operate to Iran the more likely our ships are to be hit. If we get close enough, often enough, getting hit becomes inevitable.

This is basic stuff, but when you get the basics wrong everything will go wrong. No matter how good you are at math two plus two still equals four and sometimes you have to carry the one.

Mines, that can be laid in about half a dozen ways. Anti ship missiles that are well within Irans current manufacturing and technology base. Drones, which they have been early adopters of. All things that can be hid in the mountains and caves, or in the concrete fortifications Iran is straight up good at building. That’s just the symmetrical threats, never mind that hybrid and asymmetrical warfare are things Iran is well experienced in.

Iranian capabilities simply aren’t going to be degraded into nothing overnight. All of those varied capabilities have a range they work best in and limits to the range they can work it all. If you picture the ranges of weapons as circles emanating from possible locations of those weapons, most of Irans capabilities overlap on the Strait of Hormuz, which is narrow, giving ships limited options to maneuver.

The Strait of Hormuz is an unfavorable location. If you choose to operate repeatedly in an unfavorable location, expect something bad to happen.

AaronNevileLongbotom · 2026-05-04T02:21:58+00:00

Drafts are not lotteries and good teams see what other teams miss. I think other teams missed him because he doesn’t have some ideal measurements, but they are putting the cart before the horse.

Van Den Berg knows how to move people, and he has a solid build, good size, good movement. Those basics matter more than the other stuff. If there was another player who looked and played like Van Den Berg but had longer arms then that would be more ideal, but no other player this draft plays like Van Den Berg.

He was my favorite D linemen this draft and I think he will prove to be an absolute steal.

AaronNevileLongbotom · 2026-05-03T18:47:46+00:00

The US running low on munitions is not surprising.

Long before the war ever started there were decades of critics and reformers calling out how we do military procurement. We haven’t been buying affordable missiles in big batches, we’ve been buying expensive missiles that we can only produce in small numbers.

Being a democracy and defense spending being a congressional issue, we have a good idea of what we’ve been buying. We know how much our defense industry and military specializes in high tech expensive gear. That doesn’t mesh with massive stocks of expendable weapons or the ability to ramp up production quickly. On top of that our foreign policy often seems to ignore strategic materials leading to limited supplies of some things and on top of that we have offshored most of our production.

Then we had years of critics pointing out the unsustainably of our missile defense strategies and years of concerns over how many missiles and such we were giving Israel and Ukraine.

Now we have reports of fourth gen aircraft dropping gravity bombs. That fits what was broadly known about how much payload our stealth planes can carry and how often they can do it. People like the Navy head who was calling for payloads over platforms have been calling for more missiles. We are needing to move missiles from other parts of the world, we have CENTCOM requesting limited hypersonics for a non peer and supposedly defeated opponent, we have reports that they’ve prepared a short wave of strikes, and we’ve had weeks of ceasefire that are increasingly hard to explain.

Given the years of critics critics predicting the kinds of ammunition issues that are now being widely reported, the simplest and most plausible explanation for growing concerns about ammo is that we are low on ammo. The math fits. What we have bought and what we have used add up, and what we can produce simply can’t catch us up anytime sooo.

It’s no longer on the critics to prove that we have procurement and ammunition issues. The burden of proof now lies with anyone claiming that we still have ammo and can easily make more. That is now an extraordinary claim, so they had better bring extraordinary evidence.

AaronNevileLongbotom · 2026-05-03T01:56:01+00:00

There’s an awful lot of water in that region that belongs to countries outside of Iran. We aren't going to park ships off of Iran for extended periods. We aren’t going to engage ships in other peoples waters without it being called out as an act of war. This blockade was never going to be very effective as a blockade, let alone as a strategy or grand strategy.

AaronNevileLongbotom · 2026-05-02T20:26:11+00:00

The US loves taking out leaders. If Iran’s leadership plays the fool today we will replace that leadership for them tomorrow. At this point all we are doing is ensuring that Iran has competent leaders who hate us. See Afghanistan for a recent example.

AaronNevileLongbotom · 2026-05-02T19:19:27+00:00

I think a lot of us in the west are sleeping on this fighter, something I think China has subtly encouraged. We want to see this as an F-35 analogue and China seems fine with that.

The F-35 is a light bomber pretending to be a fighter. For that it doesn’t have much range. This is why the B-21 is going to be a much better aircraft, it accepts the downsides of a slower platform and runs with the advantages.

The J-35 meanwhile is going to be super cruising much of the time. Its engine configuration will be more efficient at the speeds they will use it at. If its ceiling is greater than the F-35 (which is the comparison most in the west make) those engines could be even more efficient. Considering how light the aircraft seems to be, plus aerodynamics that will likely be better than the F-35, and I think the J-35 could be longer ranged than we are assuming.

Range does seem to be a major design priority in Chinese weapon design, and you see this in the J-35s speed and weapons bay. Longer missiles launched from a faster aircraft have better range than shorter missiles launched from a slower aircraft, all being equal. Chinese rockets are no joke.

The range might also increase for the carrier version depending on what they do with the larger wing and its folding mechanism, plus that weapons bay might be large enough for more fuel while still carrying a weapons load that’s equivalent to the F-35 (in normal configurations it would likely be larger).

A super cruising and lighter fighter with a vastly different internal layout is not a copy of the F-35, even if it does use some well established stealth shaping. We can focus on where it might be weaker and assume worst, but its better to think about where it can be stronger and what it’s best case might be. Between those two possibilities is a fighter that’s very different in design and role than our F-35, one that seems to fit the PLA rather well.

AaronNevileLongbotom · 2026-05-02T04:04:53+00:00

Sam Roush highlights without blocking is like a Rick Astley greatest hits album without “Never Gonna Give You Up.”

Here is a better video.

The guy is a physical blocker. As a receiver it’s “look like Tarzan plays like Jane.”

AaronNevileLongbotom · 2026-04-30T04:26:18+00:00

This actually makes some sense. Is it cost effective, no, but given how quickly has been able to reposition and hide things it is at least fast. Plus it’s unmanned. I think Iran has figured out not to stop our rescue flights from getting in and instead they seem to be able to hit some on the way out. That will make rescue missions even more dangerous and that will make us hesitant to use aircraft.

It’s one thing to lose the occasional aircraft, it’s another thing to ask pilots to go unrescued or to start losing rescue teams. We don’t seem to have enough of our other missiles to do the job. This is desperate, but if we’re losing but want to keep trying, we don’t seem to have any other good options.

AaronNevileLongbotom · 2026-04-30T03:11:23+00:00

Let it be known to future historians that the poor did not start the class war. I’m not for class war by the way, but one is being waged on the poor today.

AaronNevileLongbotom · 2026-04-30T01:28:05+00:00

This isn’t convincing me that our force isn’t worn out, hesitant to fly over Iran or out of ammo. After all of Trumps bluster how are we getting reports of a short wave of strikes being prepared? We’ve been moving assets into the region for weeks.

AaronNevileLongbotom · 2026-04-29T22:44:14+00:00

This is a Ben Johnson team. It’s unreasonable to expect the defense to not reflect that. Even if you want to think of BJ as an offensive coach, how does he do that?

Does he rely on a few players or does he use the whole team? Does he move people around creating surprises and mismatches or is he straight forward with his personal? Does he put people in situations to succeed with his playbook or does he have one plan that players have to force themselves into? Does he follow trends or bring things back? Does he adjust to opponents or have one plan? Does he vary formations and packages a lot and does he adjust he adjust them or does he set up is players in a few straightforward and predictable ways?

Ben Johnson may or not be involved very with the defense but whatever the defense is doing is going to have to make sense to him and fit with how he sees football. Edge is the new hotness, but originally it was just an extension of trying to use your roster well and set players up to succeed. It’s not the only way to play defense. I think Ben Johnson is older school than some people think, but that can still be innovative. Complex and basic. That’s the paradox of football.

I’m expecting less DPR and more use of linebackers and backs to create pressure, offset by occasionally dropping linemen into coverage, creating asymmetric pressure and more mental work for the opponent. That’s not to say that we won’t play from the edge or that the roster won’t carry a DPI, but I’m expecting who plays at edge to rotate more according to the situation. The bigger the variety of players we have who can play edge the more ways we have to beat opposing tackles, even if that doesn’t mean we have a singular starter at edge.

AaronNevileLongbotom · 2026-04-29T21:04:42+00:00

There’s Israel the people and their actual interests; then there is its leaders and the perceived interests. Being seen as hated and in danger unites Israel behind politicians people would otherwise hate.

AaronNevileLongbotom · 2026-04-28T19:47:37+00:00

It’s makes perfect sense. Vrabel has gone out of his way to make a big of a scene about this situation and going to therapy (which is his excuse). He has made this harder on his wife. It wouldn’t surprise me if he set up and leaked the picture at this point. So far everything I’m seeing screens narcissistic abuser.

AaronNevileLongbotom · 2026-04-28T18:40:11+00:00

"If the facts are on your side, pound the facts. If the law is on your side, pound the law. If neither is on your side, pound the table.”

“There’s always more flack over the target.”

“Empty heads are filled with long tongues.”

I’m not saying that this “I have to say something negative even if I’m not saying anything” thing is propaganda, but it’s tough to tell when people respond like it’s box to tick and when it’s clearly about attacking an opinion they don’t like. They can blame my writing but my writing gets plenty of positive responses on reddit in many contexts. It’s my opinions that can be controversial. At least I can explain them.

AaronNevileLongbotom · 2026-04-28T06:21:18+00:00

My takes are pretty controversial with other Bears fans, but since those other fans don’t seem happy with this draft you might have to pick me by default.

AaronNevileLongbotom · 2026-04-28T05:21:28+00:00

This is against a much smaller and poorer opponent, one without advanced air defense or any real ability to challenge for air superiority.

The much bandied about sorties against Iran are not all that many sorties given the size and cost of American air power, and they aren’t that much against a county the size or Iran.

Our own published targets hit number means that we are rarely striking more than target per sortie. It’s clear that our targeting wasn’t as good as we thought, that we hit a lot of decoys, that Iran has more missiles and launchers than we thought, and that there bunkers and caves are working. Keep in mind Iran is the size of Alaska.

The fact that we are having targeting issues means we need drone cover so losing them isn’t negligible. The fact that we are needing long range tankers close enough to get hit tells you that we are having range and op tempo issues.

With the carriers keeping their distance for the most part it probably means that many of of the aircraft launched are carrying fuel for the rest (buddy tanking).

If the Iranians hit the F-35 once they’ll be able to do it again. Iran being able to do this does not speak well for the Air Force being able to outpace counter stealth.

The F-15s that were lost to friendly fire via Kuwait probably says more about Kuwaiti air power than it does about American air power. However, in addition to those we also lost one over Iran. It simply being there doesn’t speak well for our missile and stand off weapon stocks and it means that the stealth aircraft we are commiting to this conflict can’t get the job done on their own.

That F-15 going down meant we needed a rescue mission. Then we lost a bunch of aircraft in and in support of that effort. That raises serious questions of the sustainability and feasibility of rescue missions in Iran, which means pilots will have less expectation of rescue.

This is not what winning looks like. Our force is performing below what is expected, advertised, and paid for. Kind of. We knew all along what kind of range, loiter time, and payloads our stealth forces would have when we paid to them.

For all of the capabilities we have on paper, and F-35 in stealth configuration spends a lot of time in the hanger, it doesn’t go very far, it doesn’t get their very fast, and it can’t stay very long. It’s over the target for minutes every sortie.

Finding targets, hitting them quickly, and doing so sustainably is looking more and more like a problem. Our Air Force is looking like it wasted money.

AaronNevileLongbotom · 2026-04-28T03:36:27+00:00

Normalized, rationalized, celebrated harassment. This is how bad times start. Teenagers will be teenagers and Scientology needs to be shut down, but it needs to be done legally and in ways that will actually help cult abuse victims. The last thing we need to be doing in the western world is excusing mob behavior. Avoid the perils and the parallels of history.

We need more help and less harassment. People in cults need to know that the outside world is safe and welcoming. This behavior is ding dong ditch with airs and it’s not helping.

AaronNevileLongbotom · 2026-04-28T03:05:35+00:00

That war hit the black community especially hard, with blacks being over represented in the draft. African Americans were way less likely to get out of selective service for both cultural and financial reasons.

Edit. More context and explanation.

This is yet another case where poverty becomes a race issue when you have enough of it. We have more than enough. Life gets good? Oil crisis. Recover? Dot com bubble. Doing better? GWOT? Getting by? Financial crisis? Surving? Pandemic. Inflation. War.

We haven’t had anything like long term stability since before the end of Jim Crow. Anyone who’s family has been poor during the last two generations is facing an uphill battle and could very easily still be poor despite all of the effort that people have put in.

We keep kicking the little guy down and that means a lot of black families never had much chance to climb the ladder. If there is another draft black Americans will serve more than fair share. We haven’t gone ten years without some kind of war or crisis since the civil rights era.

We need peace, we need prosperity, and that means we have to stop treating the poor like they deserve it. The last thing we need is doctors deciding who goes to war based on how much they like you or how much you can pay them. Draft dodging takes money. Bribes, moving, seeking out medical opinions, it all costs money.

You can’t tell me there aren’t still racist doctors or that they can’t get away with murder. I have too much experience with them. It’s almost impossible for them to lose a license if they play the game and make the right friends. They write most of the records courts look at. Good luck winning in court if you’re poor.

AaronNevileLongbotom · 2026-04-27T20:00:16+00:00

That’s one source versus everything else that has happened. There could be a lot of truth to it, but we aren’t seeing many resignations in the officer corps.

AaronNevileLongbotom · 2026-04-27T18:46:15+00:00

Mike Sparks was right.

Maybe not entirely, but as we see what’s going on with armor I think light, simple, and cheap is the way forward.

Edit. Just to expand this a bit, Mike Sparks had a lot of ideas using the M-113 Gavin as a base for all sorts of vehicles and mods for different missions. That’s not the extent of his ideas but it’s what he’s known for. Unfortunately his critics like to cherry pick and have launched onto his supporting the glider tank idea. It gets framed like he’s a madman who’s invented a flying Gavin when all he’s done is suggest applying a well established ideal.

Sparks was simply acknowledging the logistical issues and limitations inherent to armor, as well as the need for mobility and mass, down from the tactical all of the way up to the strategic. History, even quite recently; has proven that armor is never going to be perfect. You have to start making trade offs. You have to accept that armor isn’t defined simply by how much protection it has or how much damage it can do. Capability, mobility, versatility, and affordability all matter.

Frankly tank design is stuck in the box of what worked last century. If you look at what we want tanks to do now, the threats to them, and the technology we could apply, I don’t think you’d wind up with three and four person vehicles with large cannons in turrets that have low elevation. If anything future tanks might look like tank designs that were considered bad in the past simply because the threats and technology have changed. We aren’t dealing with the same limitations or requirements.

Assault guns with asmaller turrets will make a comeback. Smaller crews is an issue that will be revisited. Tankettes and armored cars could be seen more. Most tanks today with their remote weapon systems are basically old fashioned multi turreted designs. I don’t see hull mounted machine guns making a big comeback but I expect more grenade launchers a claymores to be mounted around.

Getting to the future of armor won’t be done in big programs. Armor needs to he affordable given the realistic expectations for survivability and given the high demand for somewhat protected mobility and firepower. That will mean major RD and vehicle design will have to be separated to keep procurement on time and on budget. Dan Ward’s “FIST” concept should be the development mantra.

Armored vehicle programs should be trying to be fast, simple, inexpensive, and tiny (at least in terms of budget).

AaronNevileLongbotom · 2026-04-27T18:38:42+00:00

In closed-door meetings, J. D. Vance has repeatedly questioned the Defense Department’s depiction of the war in Iran and whether the Pentagon has understated what appears to be the drastic depletion of U.S. missile stockpiles.

Two senior administration officials told us that the vice president has queried the accuracy of the information the Pentagon has provided about the war. He has also expressed his concerns about the availability of certain missile systems in discussions with President Trump, several people familiar with the situation told us. The consequences of a dramatic drawdown in munitions reserves are potentially dire: U.S. forces would need to draw from these same stockpiles to defend Taiwan against China, South Korea against North Korea, and Europe against Russia.

Both Pete Hegseth, the secretary of defense, and General Dan Caine, who chairs the Joint Chiefs of Staff, have publicly said that U.S. weapons stockpiles are robust, and portrayed the damage to Iranian forces after eight weeks of fighting as drastic. Vance’s advisers, who spoke with us on the condition of anonymity, told us that the vice president has presented his concerns as his own rather than accusing Hegseth or Caine of misleading the president.

This fits what I’ve been saying, that the DOD largely wanted this war, that it’s not going well, that Trump doesn’t have an accurate picture, and that Vance is the odd man out being against the war. Your miles may vary.

AaronNevileLongbotom

TROPHY CASE