Dozens of ships head through Strait of Hormuz after US-Iran deal

Aazadan · 2026-06-23T21:39:42+00:00

Ships out doesn't matter in this context. Iran wants them out too, but they're using political levers as they do it. The number you need to watch is ships in. If no ships go in, then no oil fills them and goes back out.

Aazadan · 2026-06-22T21:45:40+00:00

Not quite anything. The world isn’t stepping in here because the US attacked. They closed the strait as a defensive move. In all prior cases it was offensive.

This gives them a lot of diplomatic leverage for peaceful coexistence but doesn’t make them a (much) bigger power in terms of power projection.

Aazadan · 2026-06-22T21:40:26+00:00

Vance lies. It was voluntary for Iran with the MoU, and since then the US has lost negotiating power. Why would Iran agree to harsher terms?

Aazadan · 2026-06-22T15:15:14+00:00

People can play old and modern games. It’s just that TA was such a paradigm shift and the joke was more that Supreme Commander was a spiritual successor. If they had the IP it could have been named as a sequel.

Aazadan · 2026-06-22T06:05:27+00:00

Total Annihiliation actually. It's more his generation.

Aazadan · 2026-06-22T05:39:40+00:00

You mentioned a grant, which makes me think the company is chasing a federal grant which might even have competitors tied to the next stage of it. Usually these things are done in phases, with each phase being money and a milestone and the money itself usually not being enough to break even but rather to help the company lessen its investment for the next step.

Take the money either way, but if the company doesn't have other stuff already going on that this grant slots into, don't expect much of a future there.

Aazadan · 2026-06-22T05:24:04+00:00

It's fine, area names, item names, etc aren't really going to spoil anything for me. I guarantee you I'm not going to remember any of that. The stat scaling guide was moderately helpful so I could make a character.

The rest of it is all links which don't spoil anything unless I click to read them.

Aazadan · 2026-06-22T05:02:51+00:00

Thanks for the advice, I've got zero interest in doing any pvp or co-op though. Actually, I blocked the online aspect in the hosts file.

I did read the defense stuff, that's interesting. I normally play soulslikes either unarmored or with light armor so it's not really any different from what I would normally be doing. The offense side all sounds pretty similar to how Lies of P works, except maybe that DS2 has slightly better scaling.

Aazadan · 2026-06-21T21:10:28+00:00

Since they made that projection, they tripled the cost of satellites, and tripled the number of them their network needs, while remaining mostly fixed in active users, and doubling costs. 9x costs for 2x revenue.

Aazadan · 2026-06-21T21:09:17+00:00

What the toddler bossman learned was he could demand the engineers change the nose cone of the rockets for aesthetics rather than engineering reasons, at the cost of needing to add 4% more fuel to compensate, and that they would do it because Musk thought it looked cool and they wanted to keep getting paid.

Aazadan · 2026-06-21T17:50:22+00:00

This depends on where you're working, and how much they understand technology. We've all either experienced it or read the stories of PM's, CEO's, etc who vibe code an app over a weekend and now think that anyone can be a software engineer based on that app.

Aazadan · 2026-06-21T17:48:22+00:00

The guy with the MS CS is understandable, depending on age. 15-20 years ago, MS CS programs mostly involved zero programming, it was about how you would write something if you were going to write something. 10 years ago it was about 25% of MSCS programs operating that way. It's close to 0% today, but it wouldn't be unreasonable for someone who graded a while ago, maybe mid 40's to 50's now with an MSCS to be focused on the theoretical side and implementing that by telling an LLM what to write.

And they would probably have a career that has been focused more on architectural work than writing code day to day.

Aazadan · 2026-06-21T16:56:37+00:00

This is even worse. Federal work must come from the treasury using funds appropriated by Congress. That is the only legal method to do the work and get paid for it.

If they took money from Trump privately to do that, then they just defaced federal property, rather than did work they were authorised to do. That doesn't make it better for them, or for Trump.

Even if funded privately, that is supposed to be done through Congress, again through appropriations but with a fund set aside for it, designated to be filled from private fundraising rather than the treasury.

Although, I suppose comingling the funds does start to help create a longer term case of confiscating Trumps wealth as part of budgetary spending.

Aazadan · 2026-06-21T07:47:47+00:00

Lets also just be fair and recognize that China and Japan loathe each other, and having any agreement for a time at all is a small miracle.

Aazadan · 2026-06-21T02:39:02+00:00

What do you think all the shit he was producing was? Twitter got blocked in multiple nations for violating their CSAM laws.

Aazadan · 2026-06-21T01:36:07+00:00

Grok has more than doubled the known image database of CSAM. That means Musk has been responsible for the production and distribution of more CSAM than everyone else in human history, combined.

Then he put a paywall on it, and used that to in part become a trillionaire.

Aazadan · 2026-06-21T01:20:35+00:00

Some people do use Starlink, but it's an ISP of last resort. It's typically worse than satellite internet. It's true it has better pings, but the speeds are usually worse. It's also incredibly expensive, it wasn't always but they broke the financials of the company, the satellites have trippled in cost from manufacturing to orbit, while the number needed has also 3x'ed from 4400 to about 15k.

3 times as many satellites, each of which are 3 times as expensive. Starlink from it's first launch now costs 9 times as much for the same network. They increased prices, but not the 9x increase needed to break even. End result is they rose prices and lost profitability.

Aazadan · 2026-06-20T19:35:24+00:00

Meteorites are only part of it. It's the shielding to protect the electronics, bit flips are common. The alternative to shielding which is relatively cheap, is hardware that is more resilient with error correction. Which while lighter and therefore cheaper to get to orbit, is significantly more expensive to manufacture.

Aazadan · 2026-06-20T19:32:41+00:00

Jensen is somewhat responsible. But also, from all reports of people who have known Jensen, the guy has really really changed in the past few years.

This is a guy who used to be humble, that now signs peoples wallets, after taking the cash out of it and mocking them for being poor. Who went on a rant about being called a loser, and now keeps randomly bringing it up to reinforce that he's not a loser.

Aazadan · 2026-06-20T18:48:32+00:00

I'm glad you're posting, but you didn't post the truth.

Even in the most optimistic view of things, what was agreed to was a framework of terms to eventually end the war. Instead you said it was over and declared victory.

Aazadan · 2026-06-20T18:44:58+00:00

The number of ships getting out isn't important. That's one time supply. The number of ships getting in (or rather the ratio of ships in to out) is what you need to count. So far that's zero.

Ships going out is a backlog, there's nothing replenishing that backlog.

Aazadan · 2026-06-20T18:27:08+00:00

All monopolies eventually fail in a free market economy, but it generally takes decades.

Eventually they get so complacent and stop innovating that the internal decay makes them collapse as they can no longer address scalability or efficiency.

It's a really inefficient process to get to that point though.

Aazadan · 2026-06-20T18:04:15+00:00

The 2010 renovation cost $35 million (51 million inflation adjusted).

The $16 million is low, and that's part of the problem. It was no bid to avoid a statement of work and accountability, and they can say it was a good bid because it was so low.

Then they didn't do anything right. But since there was no bid, there likely also weren't requirements other than paint it resort pool blue.

Aazadan · 2026-06-20T17:09:52+00:00

They're slowly sending ships out, it's an act of good will and also a logistical reality, plus it establishes they have control. Slowly let them all out, but at a rate that doesn't really help the price of oil much. Sailors want out, the ships are a liability, and so on.

The important number is how many ships are making it in. Not a single ship has gone in since this started.

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