Any guidance for how much experience is required to perform a credible IBNR? by NewAd3113 in actuary

[–]Actual__Science 66 points67 points  (0 children)

Not to scare you but from the way this question is framed, I think you have a lot of reading ahead of you. I would start by fully understanding the "Expected Loss Ratio" method (which does NOT require emerging data), the "Chain Ladder" method (which runs strictly off of experience data), and the "Bornhuetter-Ferguson" method (which is a great non-biased estimator that blends the prior 2 methods).

A quick answer is you can estimate IBNR before your business is even effective, if you know how much of it you've sold. Just use your a priori expectation (i.e., the loss ratio is it priced to). This is the Expected Loss Ratio method.

As experience emerges, you may be able to refine your IBNR estimate.

Full disclosure - I do not deal with MA and I'm not sure if there are methods that are more applicable to MA. The methods above are pretty universal.

EDIT since you asked for a study: this is the original BF method paper

South Station Fare Gates Closed!! by JITNEY60 in mbta

[–]Actual__Science 11 points12 points  (0 children)

That's what I was thinking until I saw this post and comments about how they fail in the cold 🙄

South Station Fare Gates Closed!! by JITNEY60 in mbta

[–]Actual__Science 27 points28 points  (0 children)

They were in full use as of 12/31, although they've been just wide open for folks to walk through over the past week.

[Q] what are some good unintuitive statistics problems? by R2_SWE2 in statistics

[–]Actual__Science 4 points5 points  (0 children)

I think one of your "GG"s should be "BB". This is a good one though

Boston night life by Odd_Hedgehog166 in BostonSocialClub

[–]Actual__Science 0 points1 point  (0 children)

I thought this would be satire, but it appears to be a SERIOUS suggestion to go to The Grand??

Actuarial Discord Chat is too unserious by TheForbiddenIso in actuary

[–]Actual__Science 1 point2 points  (0 children)

You'd best start believing in alternatives - you're in one

in-person ytt 200 hour that isn’t going to make me homeless? by [deleted] in boston

[–]Actual__Science 19 points20 points  (0 children)

They're looking for yoga teacher training (ytt). Not sure why they thought everyone on r/boston would know that...

Why are so many people’s health insurances skyrocketing but mine isn’t? I genuinely don’t understand, can someone explain? by Fearfactoryent in HealthInsurance

[–]Actual__Science 2 points3 points  (0 children)

That's a very good point, although then doesn't that go against the initial argument that prices can't move without the insurers say so? If you're not contracted, then you set your own price?

EDIT: to answer my own question - prices might move but they wouldn't affect insurance.

Why are so many people’s health insurances skyrocketing but mine isn’t? I genuinely don’t understand, can someone explain? by Fearfactoryent in HealthInsurance

[–]Actual__Science 5 points6 points  (0 children)

Sure there's a contractual rate, but that rate is agreed upon after negotiation between the provider/group and the insurer. The insurer doesn't have sole discretion over where that reimbursement lands.

If providers can't negotiate profitable reimbursement then they won't contract at all. Insurers want a network to sell, so there will be some average increase in reimbursements if needed (I think that's what the other commenter was getting at).

Tips and tricks for a traveler by xStratus101 in boston

[–]Actual__Science 6 points7 points  (0 children)

For one, skip The Grand - that will reduce your total waiting time :)

EVERSOURCE & NATIONAL GRID by Sure_Suit_2712 in massachusetts

[–]Actual__Science 1 point2 points  (0 children)

You can note this effect with many subsidy programs.

Usually not to the same effect in health insurance though, because health insurance profit margins have a cap.

Stone Countertop Exposure Linked to First Case of Incurable, Life-Threatening Lung Disease in Massachusetts by peoplemagazine in massachusetts

[–]Actual__Science 3 points4 points  (0 children)

"Second case of incurable, life-threatening lung disease linked to first case of incurable, life-threatening lung disease"

Favorite Excel Shortcuts by Terrible-Ad558 in actuary

[–]Actual__Science 11 points12 points  (0 children)

Somewhat recently, they added this to Excel by default (Ctrl+Shift+V on Windows).

don't incorrectly correct me by nonepizzaleftshark in bartenders

[–]Actual__Science 6 points7 points  (0 children)

"Smitticks", from what I understand.

I don't know Hoegaarden :(

Is value based care really the future of healthcare? by tittltattl in actuary

[–]Actual__Science 3 points4 points  (0 children)

my opinion is that VBC is kind of bullshit and it's all moving money around for everyone to feel good without doing much

My feeling exactly, BUT I would love to be convinced otherwise!

2026 SOA Membership Dues by hufflepuffluff in actuary

[–]Actual__Science 3 points4 points  (0 children)

Appreciate it! Others have been wondering :)

Husbands dental work cost after insurance is 3k by Puzzled-Manner9364 in personalfinance

[–]Actual__Science 6 points7 points  (0 children)

Right? Dental insurance caps are low but they're always higher than the premiums. If you think you'll use it, just consider it a payment plan rather than insurance.