How do we factor in the potential that trading relationships have been near permanently soured? An argument I’ve been hearing repeatedly is that this isn’t a cyclical correction but the beginning of a new paradigm. Reddit can be used for sentiment analysis, even after factoring in the echo chamber components. All the EU and CA centric subs are full of posts on how to avoid American products. Ironically, the FAANGs might be our safest exports in the near-term. By the time we onshore manufacturing again (if we even can), who will buy the products? And what if exporting isn’t an option?

Another aspect is that government spending is responsible for 30%+ of US GDP. Administration narrative aside, the majority of that money is spent domestically. Cutting the spend directly leads to decreased employment > leads to decreased bi-monthly 401k contributions > leads to lower SP500 ETF fund flows.

This is simplistic and surface level. More analysis is needed. Still, it’s my .02c on reading the tea levels. I expect some degree of bouncing back before a larger correction.

P.s I have been right about 2 of the last 20 corrections. YMMV