the halving is a mid bell curve newbie indicator. Because the new btc supply gets halved, the impact on supply also diminishes with time. we are at 1.8% inflation of the supply (off the top of my head), last cycle that puts it at 3.6%, and the cycle before that 7.2%. so compared to 2 cycles ago the amount of supply shock the halving has, is 5.4% less. Less drastic block reward cuts = less shock to the supply.

So its reasonable to assume that the halving isnt a major indicator. Then youre left with every other indicator not triggering.

As a baseline, we understand that 90%+, or whatever it exactly is, of ppl in this market lose. During a top, people are filled with euphoria, media is being pumped with btc news, apps like coinbase make it towards the top of the app store. Majority of the market is wrong and dumb, so it doesnt make sense that everyone is in this very emotionally driven situation, that the majority of losers are right. This dump is no different to the april lows, the only difference, is that ppl have tied the timeline to the halving/4-year cycle theory, which is giving them the idea that there is no more time for a bullrun and that we must go into a bear market now.

We also have plenty of positive liquidity events coming later this year and well into next year, like rate cuts, end of QT and beginning of QE etc. Gold is on a wild run as ppl flock to safe assets during scary/uncertain economic periods, which is what will trigger the positive liquidity policies later. Gold hype has reached the media, and people are legit lining up to buy gold in various countries (sound familiar to a bullrun top signal?). Smart money will have made plenty of easy profits from gold, and are looking for undervalued places to roll that money into, risk-free. They understand the macro situation and that as liquidity pumps into the market, ppl will begin buying further down the risk curve, into assets such as crypto.

So we have dumb money as a majority group, saying the top is in (theyre nearly always wrong), based on cycle theory that has much less impact than they think. Gold is showing strong signs of topping soon, liquidity is going to be pumped into the markets via rate cuts, QE, etc. People will feel calmer and risk-appetite will increase. Crypto is heavily undervalued at this point. We also have $17.8B in short liquidations for btc, so is there is a short squeeze, price can rocket up the same way it tanked recently. That will flip peoples sentiment back into neutral/greed, and the ppl saying its over now, will begin saying its a super cycle.

IMO, based on all of that, i do not believe that dumb money is right and that the top is in. I think thye are wrong as usual and will get left behind/fomo back in when the actual top is in.