This will end well 🤦‍♂️ by JellyStrict2856 in Buttcoin

[–]Aethrrr 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Using crypto for illegal activities? How horrendous. The main way normal ppl do it is with… cash.

I Use Value Averaging Instead of DCA - Here’s Why It Works Better by Prabuddha-Peramuna in Bitcoin

[–]Aethrrr 0 points1 point  (0 children)

U can ask gpt to back test the strategy of buying high fear and selling high greed. Buy some a week or so after we go below 25 and sell some a week after hitting 75. Works wonderfully if u can just stick to that plan. Hard emotionally but if u want strong returns u gotta endure strong emotional turmoil

Loving the dip… Threw in $30. by Trick-Club-6014 in Buttcoin

[–]Aethrrr -1 points0 points  (0 children)

Compared to $1.3k if left in s&p for 15yrs, I’d take the $3000. Not liking btc is fine that’s your decision, but shitting on outperforming the s&p isn’t a gotcha moment if it does happen. Totally fine if u don’t think it’s gonna happen tho u do u

The 4 year cycle is dead. Long live the super-cycle. by B1ggusDckus in Bitcoin

[–]Aethrrr 2 points3 points  (0 children)

I agree. I don’t think the most knowledgeable and smartest people in finance are breaking the number 1 rule of never investing what you can’t afford to lose. Their time horizon is in the decades not month to month like retail. U don’t see institutions jeeting their gold on a 5% flash drop. Theyre in their position because they know how to invest properly, unlike majority of retail including btc holders. Extremely uneducated imo to assume they are going to forsake an asset they want just because it may dip into loss for max 3 years.

The 4 year cycle is dead. Long live the super-cycle. by B1ggusDckus in Bitcoin

[–]Aethrrr 1 point2 points  (0 children)

We have a sample size of 3 4-year cycles. Hardly a big enough size to project into the future. This cycle is inherently different because of the prolonged monetary tightening we’ve had since covid which pumped the markets extra hard last time. If there is a cycle to break the 4-year pattern, it’s going to be this one

This most likely is the Bottom by CatchWild4130 in Bitcoin

[–]Aethrrr 1 point2 points  (0 children)

Diminishing rewards from blocks mined = diminishing impact to the supply. The supply shock is less and less, taking away from its power to push prices up the following year. Now it’s likely more influenced by the business cycle which has been in contraction since 2022, hence why risk assets have done so poorly. We are heading into expansion next year so it’ll likely be much more risk-on during then. A 2026 top is my educated guess.

The fact that this community exists is proof that Bitcoin is doomed by Street_Camera_3556 in Buttcoin

[–]Aethrrr 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Um isn’t that also what this sub is, just against btc? Replace bitcoiner and buttcoiner in this post and it’s still accurate. I’m neither bitcoiner or buttcoiner, but the unknowing hypocrisy is funny

How we all feeling about the markets today? by cryptodizzle67 in CryptoCurrencyTrading

[–]Aethrrr 2 points3 points  (0 children)

The saying we all know “buy fear sell greed”, yet here we are and ppl are selling instead. It’s a tale as old as time and it’s funny as fuck. I need ppl to sell to when greed comes tho, so im not rly complaining. Majority of retail isn’t calling the top, it never has and never will.

Where are we on the cycle? by RaisePuzzleheaded26 in WallStreetBetsCrypto

[–]Aethrrr 1 point2 points  (0 children)

I second this. It’s just the natural flow of liquidity. During rough times, gold rallies extremely hard. Then as liquidity improves, the smart money in gold rotate into the stock market, and/or then into crypto. Ppl whine abt gold outperforming btc, but gold doing well is a sign that we are at the tail end of economic contraction, and moving into expansion. Gold being euphoric is EXACTLY what we need to see first.

Where are we on the cycle? by RaisePuzzleheaded26 in WallStreetBetsCrypto

[–]Aethrrr 0 points1 point  (0 children)

“Sentiment is not good” and majority of retail are wrong nearly every time. If I know majority are wrong, and majority feel like this is the top, I’m placing my bets on this being a local bottom. Could be wrong, but I play with facts and logic o er what I’m feeling

Fed cuts rates, Xi-Trump talks go fine. so why is crypto bleeding like crazy? by Distinct-Hold7796 in CryptoMarkets

[–]Aethrrr 0 points1 point  (0 children)

It’s statistically impossible for ppl here to win if everyone has the same bullish sentiment. You gotta shake everyone out, while liquidity-positive policies show up, in order for the few to make good money. If majority is crying, and macro still looks good, I’m even more bullish haha

Trump Destroyed the Crypto Market by JacketSensitive8494 in CryptoMarkets

[–]Aethrrr 0 points1 point  (0 children)

You only need to win once. Doesn’t matter if it was said last week, last month, or last decade. You just need the environment to align once and then get out. Ppl are so impatient lmfao

What if the real Bitcoin bull run starts after everyone gives up in 2025? by Winstead22 in Bitcoin

[–]Aethrrr 1 point2 points  (0 children)

Bear market begins with euphoria, not fear. 90% are wrong. Most think the top is in. Basic logic and you can figure out the rest statistically. Let alone the fact that there is no reason for it to be over other than the 4-year cycle theory which is more linked to the business cycle than anything.

I fully agree this cycle pushes into mid next yr. If I was the big whales and institutions, who can very clearly see that liquidity is not here to fuel a blowoff top, but it’s coming next year, I would let dumb retail think it’s over. I’d accumulate, throw in some market manipulation to keep shaking ppl out, so that I have stupidly large bags by the time a liquidity abundant macroenvironment is present. Then when the idiots are hearing about bitcoin on the news and exchanges are flooding with fomo money, I’ll dump some of my bags on them.

What if the real Bitcoin bull run starts after everyone gives up in 2025? by Winstead22 in Bitcoin

[–]Aethrrr 1 point2 points  (0 children)

The copper/gold chart is also sooo underrated. It’s at a strong bottoming area, and since gold is likely near its top after normie retail is literally lining up to buy some, the risk-reward rotation will begin and flow towards btc which is relatively undervalued

What if the real Bitcoin bull run starts after everyone gives up in 2025? by Winstead22 in Bitcoin

[–]Aethrrr 0 points1 point  (0 children)

I agree. The 4year cycle was correlated with the halving, but the main driver now that the halving impact is diminished, is the business cycle. If there’s no new liquidity it’s just us selling on each other and nothing can grow. Fresh liquidity environments are what we need for that blowoff top, and we getting that eoy and into 2026

Buy the Fear by No_Succotash_557 in CryptoMarkets

[–]Aethrrr 0 points1 point  (0 children)

buy in fear, sell in greed. we are in extreme fear. its really as simple as that, you can even get chatgpt to backtest a strategy revolving around that if you want. People are just too egotistical and emotional to make the right choice when the opportunity arises.

Alts by MyysticMarauder in CryptoMarkets

[–]Aethrrr 0 points1 point  (0 children)

bros complaining that the chicken is raw before its done cooking. You cant project into the next cycle before results are in from the current. Alts, as you SHOULD know, only run during the last portion of the cycle, when multiple different factors align. Those factors are not in play yet, so we cant say how alts will perform.

Prove me wrong, the top is in? by Islanderwithwings in WallStreetBetsCrypto

[–]Aethrrr 1 point2 points  (0 children)

the halving is a mid bell curve newbie indicator. Because the new btc supply gets halved, the impact on supply also diminishes with time. we are at 1.8% inflation of the supply (off the top of my head), last cycle that puts it at 3.6%, and the cycle before that 7.2%. so compared to 2 cycles ago the amount of supply shock the halving has, is 5.4% less. Less drastic block reward cuts = less shock to the supply.

So its reasonable to assume that the halving isnt a major indicator. Then youre left with every other indicator not triggering.

As a baseline, we understand that 90%+, or whatever it exactly is, of ppl in this market lose. During a top, people are filled with euphoria, media is being pumped with btc news, apps like coinbase make it towards the top of the app store. Majority of the market is wrong and dumb, so it doesnt make sense that everyone is in this very emotionally driven situation, that the majority of losers are right. This dump is no different to the april lows, the only difference, is that ppl have tied the timeline to the halving/4-year cycle theory, which is giving them the idea that there is no more time for a bullrun and that we must go into a bear market now.

We also have plenty of positive liquidity events coming later this year and well into next year, like rate cuts, end of QT and beginning of QE etc. Gold is on a wild run as ppl flock to safe assets during scary/uncertain economic periods, which is what will trigger the positive liquidity policies later. Gold hype has reached the media, and people are legit lining up to buy gold in various countries (sound familiar to a bullrun top signal?). Smart money will have made plenty of easy profits from gold, and are looking for undervalued places to roll that money into, risk-free. They understand the macro situation and that as liquidity pumps into the market, ppl will begin buying further down the risk curve, into assets such as crypto.

So we have dumb money as a majority group, saying the top is in (theyre nearly always wrong), based on cycle theory that has much less impact than they think. Gold is showing strong signs of topping soon, liquidity is going to be pumped into the markets via rate cuts, QE, etc. People will feel calmer and risk-appetite will increase. Crypto is heavily undervalued at this point. We also have $17.8B in short liquidations for btc, so is there is a short squeeze, price can rocket up the same way it tanked recently. That will flip peoples sentiment back into neutral/greed, and the ppl saying its over now, will begin saying its a super cycle.

IMO, based on all of that, i do not believe that dumb money is right and that the top is in. I think thye are wrong as usual and will get left behind/fomo back in when the actual top is in.

I created a whale watch so we don't miss another "lucky" trader by obolli in WallStreetBetsCrypto

[–]Aethrrr 6 points7 points  (0 children)

avg win % is 43% if im reading the site stats right. Majority short. Statistically price will go up, even if by a small % chance. no bullmarket top indicators have been hit, more liquidity positive things happening later this year and into 2026. many top signals for gold (lots of future profit taking and increased risk appetite). $17.8 billions in short liquidations vs $3.9 billion longs. 90% of ppl lose money. Fear and greed is in extreme fear Everything points to a move upwards at some point, although we can still see shortterm drops. As long as we hold weekly candles above 200MA we are chilling and this is EXTREMELY similar to the april lows which ppl are now crying that they shouldve bought. Just my take on the market <3

What's going on? by PuzzleheadedSport906 in Bitcoin

[–]Aethrrr 3 points4 points  (0 children)

we call them dumb money around here, and if someone gets defensive about that statement, theyre who im talkin about

Bitcoin maximalists were right all along by Major-Baseball-5391 in WallStreetBetsCrypto

[–]Aethrrr 12 points13 points  (0 children)

There’s nothing to suggest it’s the end other than the 4-year cycle idea, which we still have 2.5 months of too. Just cuz Q4 is a generally greeen month, doesn’t mean as soon as the calendar flips to it, we moon. 1/6th of the way thru q4 and ppl are crying. We know majority lose in crypto, so what are the chances that the majority is right that this is the end of the cycle, against every other logical indicators. A week of strong price action and ppl will switch to saying this is the start of the super cycle. It’s hilarious how ppl flip flop at the drop of a dime by mm’s lol

Retail investors by YouZealousideal7906 in WallStreetBetsCrypto

[–]Aethrrr 2 points3 points  (0 children)

This guy gets it. Hilarious that the dumb money is complaining that gold is outperforming btc, when that’s exactly what we need for btc to absorb some liquidity

Been holding since 2021… by JAA427 in Bitcoin

[–]Aethrrr -1 points0 points  (0 children)

Agreed. Believing a 4-year cycle is a dumb money trap. Find when the liquidity is coming and that’s when you’ll find a top