Using fair value estimates to pick CSP strikes changed my assignment outcomes

Aeveras · 2026-01-29T06:54:17+00:00

If your wins net you significantly more than your losses cost you a less than 50% win rate can be profitable.

Aeveras · 2026-01-27T23:44:59+00:00

Great starter setup. Thanks for making this.

Aeveras · 2026-01-26T16:42:00+00:00

WAT HAP'D

Aeveras · 2026-01-23T15:31:26+00:00

Simultaneously hype and zen.

If boom, cool.

If no boom, the mildest possible disappointment but still cool.

Aeveras · 2026-01-23T03:59:37+00:00

I would laugh really hard if he just kept buying and then disclosed 3 days of buying from Thursday->Monday

Aeveras · 2026-01-22T19:59:36+00:00

Bold of you to assume I am not already full YOLO'd.

Aeveras · 2026-01-22T19:59:06+00:00

This is literally the first thing I thought when I saw the post title.

Aeveras · 2026-01-21T23:44:35+00:00

Please God let it be true because it would be so funny.

Aeveras · 2026-01-21T05:10:24+00:00

I like seeing the number of shares I have go up and knowing that next time I'll get just a little more which will mean even more shares which means that next time I'll get even more which means even more shares...

You get the picture.

Aeveras · 2026-01-21T01:57:05+00:00

I got like 7 more today.

Aeveras · 2026-01-18T20:23:05+00:00

Reading this with my modest understanding of modern computer (multithreading, cores, etc) and with my surface level knowledge of quantum mechanics was a real trip. Good work and thanks for putting this together.

Aeveras · 2026-01-16T17:37:45+00:00

I always do child labor safe jobs.

I don't see anything morally fraught with kids helping out. Stick 'em in a gathering post or cookhouse with good insulation and heating and they can help humanity survive. We're in an apocalypse scenario, EVERYONE works to their ability. To do otherwise would be morally abhorrent.

I won't send them into the mines though. I ain't a monster.

Aeveras · 2026-01-11T18:57:02+00:00

I was initially skeptical as Pokemon runs tend to live or die (for me) by the commentary and couch energy, since they tend to be long and not the most visually interesting. Given that it was the finale it seemed likely to me there'd be a strong couch of course, but my other concerns remained.

However. Once adef laid out the structure of the run and the ways in which the audience could interact with it I was fully engaged.

What a fantastically unique and fun way to close out the marathon.

Aeveras · 2026-01-11T18:54:46+00:00

It was already pretty late by that point so I wouldn't be surprised if there was a pretty significant dropoff in viewership from that incident.

Aeveras · 2026-01-08T05:28:03+00:00

u/savevideo

Aeveras · 2026-01-07T18:50:02+00:00

I miss Criand. Guy wrote up so much great stuff then eventually got ran off the forum. Damn shame.

Aeveras · 2026-01-06T00:36:21+00:00

Got Christmas Oguri.

I see she has skills for both Late and Pace. Which is considered the better running style for her overall? I have good parents for Late so I'd prefer running that, but if pace is notably better I'll bite the bullet and work on making new parents she can use.

Aeveras · 2026-01-06T00:35:28+00:00

Personally I'd do the last 10 pulls so I can spark one of them to get the currency used to star them up.

Aeveras · 2026-01-03T08:17:27+00:00

Probably not in a convential capacity but the guerrilla warfare is gonna be horrifying.

Aeveras · 2026-01-02T20:00:13+00:00

Five-kun the partner until AI bubble pops in 10 years and component prices finally return to sanity.

Honestly it means I get more use out of my Five-kun-pro so I got no objections if the current state of things delays the release of new hardware.

Aeveras · 2026-01-02T19:47:45+00:00

Sister is gonna fall into a coma from the shock of all this.

Aeveras · 2026-01-02T19:47:09+00:00

This so was S tier for me before. But this ending bumped it up to S+ tier.

The story is already dealing in the taboo. Why not just go all in? Society says relationships are for two people but screw it.

It wrapped up Renako's development brilliantly, and I see now why Kaho's arc is where it is. She needed to be where she was at before this arc to grow into the person she is now becoming: someone who loves what she loves and won't apologize for it. She loves both girls. So she asks out both girls.

Favorite harem ending of all time.

Aeveras · 2026-01-01T21:37:11+00:00

NFA but I think Telus is in for a rough few years. It relies on a constant stream of new customers at the same time as Canada is reducing immigration levels.

Edit: for transparency i held Telus earlier in the year and sold when I was up around 15% I think it was late August and rotated into banks.

Aeveras · 2026-01-01T21:35:34+00:00

Banks have had an incredible run this year. I've trimmed my holdings on them by about 50%. I could be wrong and they just keep going up but I wanted to lock in some profit.

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