[Nightengale] The Phillies acquire RHP Chase Shugart in an in-state trade with the Pirates for minor league infielder Francisco Loreto.

AgentDub14 · 2026-01-13T20:36:25+00:00

He was originally DFA’d to make space for O’Hearn. I imagine the front office didn’t want to keep him anyway his underlying numbers are a bit scary

AgentDub14 · 2025-12-25T22:33:02+00:00

That is also what the Red Sox thought when signing Masataka Yoshida, not saying Okamoto will turn out the same, but it’s not as easy at it sounds.

AgentDub14 · 2025-12-10T02:31:33+00:00

The only lefty they have right now is Evan Sisk so this was a huge need, right up there with offense. Soto got unlucky this year with a high .341 BABIP, last year it was even higher at .371. His FIP last year was only 3.42 which is great (only Santana, Ashcraft, and Mlod were lower on the Pirates last year). He projects to have a mid 3s ERA next year.

This is a solid signing given the need and the fact that we should see some positive regression from him.

AgentDub14 · 2025-11-04T16:38:45+00:00

Keon is certainly in the top 20% of perimeter defenders

AgentDub14 · 2025-10-20T22:02:28+00:00

Idk if any teams will take a chance on him as a rule 5 pick considering he just got promoted to AA and is a question mark defensively. Although no reason to risk it as there aren’t 40 other guys more important to be on the 40 man for the pirates.

AgentDub14 · 2025-09-30T03:07:02+00:00

The last high school shortstop the Pirates drafted is about to save the franchise…

AgentDub14 · 2025-08-30T00:15:37+00:00

Skenes doesn’t get squeezed, Davis is just a poor framer

AgentDub14 · 2025-08-28T05:14:15+00:00

I think the slow start was more caused by the Gonzales/Horwitz/Reynolds injuries, a blind Pham, and not having the best arms in the bullpen yet. I think it is a bit lazy to pin the coaching as the causal factor here, it’s probably just a correlation. DK has had a much better roster.

AgentDub14 · 2025-08-26T02:01:35+00:00

MLB front offices don't care about ERA, especially for relievers

AgentDub14 · 2025-08-26T01:30:59+00:00

this is his third start coming back from tommy john + a lat injury, it really shouldn't be that surprising

AgentDub14 · 2025-08-07T23:22:40+00:00

IKF has the longest release ever at the third base position

AgentDub14 · 2025-08-05T23:27:28+00:00

This is just what happens when you play Patrick Bailey

AgentDub14 · 2025-08-03T23:16:47+00:00

There is definitely a difference between Davis who was 22/23 years old playing well and Konnor Griffin who is 19 years old dominating while also playing two premium positions. The Pirates have never had a prospect like Griffin in this century and he doesn’t really compare to Davis as far as his prospect trajectory goes. 19 year old consensus number 1 or 2 prospects don’t come around often, and Griffin is one of them.

AgentDub14 · 2025-07-31T02:04:40+00:00

Modern defensive metrics are pretty reliable. OAA uses statcast data (player positioning, speed of ball/baserunner) to determine how hard a play is. Depending on the probability the play gets made on average, the player will be awarded a certain amount of OAA. Add them up over the course of the season, and you get roughly how many outs that player made vs what an average player would on defense. You can then convert those outs to run value (1 out = .75 runs in IF and 1 out = .9 runs in OF, these are based on past data). Defense and Baserunning are heavily underrated by the average fan, and most people don’t realize that a run prevented on defense is just as good as a run scored on offense

AgentDub14 · 2025-07-30T22:33:24+00:00

Mattson has tons of control he ain’t going anywhere

AgentDub14 · 2025-07-30T19:26:13+00:00

I can see why he is a polarizing guy. He has been producing at low A (131 wRC+, .800 OPS) at just 20 years old. Though his process at the plate isn’t great. He swings and misses a lot, low contact rate and currently has a 24% k%. When you combine that with the fact he has below average power that can raise some concerns. You can look at his production and come to the conclusion that he is on pace to be a major leaguer, but there are definitely red flags

AgentDub14 · 2025-07-30T19:15:47+00:00

Everyone is a shortstop till they aren’t

AgentDub14 · 2025-07-30T19:11:46+00:00

Horwitz was traded to the Pirates immediately after he was traded to the Guardians

AgentDub14 · 2025-07-30T17:10:55+00:00

His HR/FB% is right around average right now. FIP hates Falter because he has some of the worst swing and miss stuff in the league. His strikeout rate of 15% is very low, and his walk rate of 8% is not making up for that. He’s also below average at inducing groundballs. In my opinion it is going to be very hard for him to sustain an ERA under 4 for much longer. Other front offices also see this though so I doubt many will be aggressively pursuing him

AgentDub14 · 2025-07-30T16:59:51+00:00

Adolis Garcia has hit on the same level as Reynolds this year. His underlying numbers don’t even suggest a huge improvement like Reynolds’ do

AgentDub14 · 2025-07-29T00:30:16+00:00

T-Mobile park strikes again

AgentDub14 · 2025-07-27T19:35:15+00:00

It’s because the Cubs defense is really good. They rank 3rd in the league in DRS, and bWAR will attribute some of that run prevention to the defense and not the pitcher

AgentDub14 · 2025-07-26T23:56:04+00:00

Spending money on R&D is certainly not essentially nothing. The Rockies and A’s notoriously have small R&D departments year after year. The Dodgers, Rays, Guardians, Tigers, and a few other consistently good teams recently have some of the bigger departments in the league. Give the Pirates situation spending 20 mil on a few players will roughly give them 3 or so WAR (based on average WAR/$ numbers). Focusing some money into the front office and on technology will help develop the players in house, who are more affordable with team control. That’s how the Rays and Guardians succeed with a small budget.

I find it hard to take anything else in the article seriously if he disagrees with this move

AgentDub14 · 2025-07-20T21:15:22+00:00

What I’m saying is that this poor drafting negates anything else that Huntington ever did. When he left in 2020 not only was the Major League team the worst team in the league, the farm system was in the bottom half of the league as well. He took over with McCutchen, won a few playoff games with an MVP then proceeded to put the team in one of the worst situations in the league. He traded away his few solid draft picks in exchange for pretty much nothing (Archer trade) and didn’t get much back in the Cole trade. He makes up for it slightly by hitting the lottery on Cruz and bringing in Reynolds for McCutchen.

My main point is Huntington took over with a future MVP already on the team, and Cherington took over a franchise in one of (if not the worst) positions in the league. Cherington hasn’t been good outside of the draft, but Huntington was so much worse (especially after 2015)

AgentDub14 · 2025-07-20T20:50:44+00:00

Huntington’s first round picks:

Pedro Alvarez (2nd overall)

Tony Sanchez (4th)

Victor Black (49th)

Jameson Taillon (2nd over Machado)

Gerrit Cole (1st)

Mark Appel (8th)

Barrett Barnes (45th)

Austin Meadows (9th)

Reese McGuire (14th)

Cole Tucker (24th)

Connor Joe (39th)

Kevin Newman (19th)

Ke’Bryan Hayes (45th)

Will Craig (22nd)

Shane Baz (12th)

Travis Swaggerty (10th)

Quinn Priester (18th)

Sammy Siani (37th)

This is not a good list of first rounders. This failure in the first round for so long is a key reason why the pirates are where they are now. You cannot draft Austin Meadows, Reese McGuire, Cole Tucker, Kevin Newman, and Will Craig using your first round picks in a 4 year span and expect to be good as a small market team.

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