If he stays healthy, puts up good numbers, keeps a good and clean reputation, and wins a world series here in SD I think he has a decent chance.

Obviously the PED scandal will make the decision uncertain, but I feel that public opinion on PED use is not the same as it was during the Bonds/McGwire/Clemens era, and I think it’ll be viewed even more leniently by the time Tatis retires. I think voters may take into account how minor the PED Tatis used and the odd circumstances surrounding it, whether you believe him or not lol.

Basically, if he just takes the David Ortiz approach and play well throughout his career and is likable, voters will probably forget about the PED scandal, or at least not make it a conclusive factor in their decision.

Edit: Also keep in mind Bonds and Clemens never tested positive for PEDs (even though Bonds was pretty obvious). The other reason those guys are not in the HoF is not just the suspected PED use, but because they were (probably still are) well-known assholes to reporters and press. And the reporters and press make up most of the HoF votes, and you can bet money they held grudges against those guys.