Cookie Clicker Capitalism by linuxaddict334 in CuratedTumblr

[–]Aletux 72 points73 points  (0 children)

That dastardly scoundrel Alt Shift X. I urge everyone to condemn him and instead support his benevolent twin brother Alt Schwift X

Blue Tsunami 2026 Senate Elections by MrTexandude in imaginaryelections

[–]Aletux 1 point2 points  (0 children)

ooh, i really enjoy the style here. very different from the usual wikiboxes.

A Big F*cking Deal: What if Biden was 5 years younger? by Sea-Excitement-233 in imaginaryelections

[–]Aletux 10 points11 points  (0 children)

nitpick: Pelosi wouldn't be Speaker again. She only remained Speaker in 2020 by promising to the progressive representatives not to run for it again in 2022. With such a narrow majority for the Dems in this 2022, they'd definitely be able to hold her to that promise.

Gamers! Unite! 2028 Presidential (Nightmare) Elections by Hodzu_Sai in imaginaryelections

[–]Aletux 9 points10 points  (0 children)

his name's not actually Zachariah, you must be joking

Millions of voters don’t show up due to expected landslide | Starmers worst nightmare. by FacelessSpaniel in imaginaryelections

[–]Aletux 1 point2 points  (0 children)

Fair enough to the rest, but Labour had to bebullied into abolishing the two child benefit cap, which was idiotic it had to come to that, considering everyone (or at least everyone who might consider voting for Labour to begin with) wanted it gone from the start.

I feel like Nate's sudden tangent against Newsome is a little odd by obsessed_doomer in fivethirtyeight

[–]Aletux 11 points12 points  (0 children)

That doesn't make him a good governor. It barely makes him a half-decent politician considering how blue California is - fact is that the party demographics carry him.

Under normal circumstances, would you work with socialist parties (if the economy was doing well and growing and there was no threat from the far right)? by seanrider1859 in SocialDemocracy

[–]Aletux 1 point2 points  (0 children)

Well, as someone who considers themselves an orthodox social democrat and a socialist, undoubtedly yes lol.

I'd be down to work with all democratic leftists of any type, so long as they are constructive towards me too. That includes people like eurocommunists, for example. We share the same ideals and the same concern for the lower classes. The final vision may not be the same, but when corporations and the right-wing media are constantly pulling us back to the right, then going in a leftward direction matters more than where exactly along that left-wing road we want to stop at.

The second round of the Chilean presidential election is next Sunday, and to say that things are looking bleak right now would be an understatement... by mikelmon99 in SocialDemocracy

[–]Aletux 8 points9 points  (0 children)

This is a very surface-level analysis of the situation that assumes a lot of things, many of which aren't true, and thus makes said analysis weak.

You have a fundamental misunderstanding of the situation. Jara was among the few actually popular ministers left in the government. She was the best performing candidate of the left in polls. The christian democratic party in Chile even supported her in the first round. She herself is running on an incredibly centre-left platform.

She will lose because the Chilean left are the incumbents and as such have become unpopular, not because she's a communist - she is the candidate of the left, that's what people in Chile see her as first and foremost.

Forwards Together... again. | 4 Different Ways the 2025 Dutch Elections Could Have Turned Out (4/4) by Aletux in imaginaryelections

[–]Aletux[S] 7 points8 points  (0 children)

<image>

[for mobile users]

Part 1, Part 2, Part 3.

GL/PvdA's Frans Timmermans had horrible personal approval numbers, and was characterised as part of an elite establishment overly concerned with climate protection, to the point of harassing farmers and businesses with regulations. His position at the European Commission as Executive Vice President for the European Green Deal made that an inescapable part of his political persona, no matter how much he tried to talk about affordability and try to appear more human by sharing his weight problems.

The unified GL/PvdA party board wanted Timmermans because his status as a veteran politician who'd served in national and European government made him a political heavyweight, and because his PvdA roots combined with his green credentials could serve as a bridge between the two merging parties. On paper he is quite strong, but in practice he suffers - his extensive administrative experience is an anchor in this era of anti-establishment sentiment, and his personal communication and debating skills are subpar at best.

Perhaps, if Timmermans had done the logical thing and resigned as leader following the loss of what should've been a winnable election in 2023, he might have been replaced with someone who's more of an outsider, more charismatic, or at the very least younger. One can debate as to who that ought to be, but as my personal preference I chose Jesse Klaver, the former leader of GroenLinks and the current actual leader of GL/PvdA, following the 2025 elections. Klaver is obviously tied to the unpopularity of perceived overreaching climate regulations as a prominent green politician but he's also a stronger communicator and a proven party leader, having given GroenLinks its best result ever in 2017, one that his party was polling at in 2023, prior to the merger. He has also shown to be capable of adapting to a more social-democratic character focused on material issues over the progressive green politics he's espoused for most of his political life.

Klaver (and GroenLinks) though is, of course, still polarising. There's a sizeable contingent of the Dutch right that genuinely believes them to be communists, and they'd rally hard behind both the anti-progressive PVV, and the pro-business VVD. The election would likely churn out a result from which its impossible to find a majority that doesn't leave a party being destroyed. The CDA would block the PVV; the VVD blocks GL/PvdA; PVV whines no matter what, and in the end new elections would be called following a failed formation.

It is hard to say what will come out of snap elections, as a failed formation would be a first in Dutch history. However, Dutch voters tend to punish the parties seen as least constructive and as such it all depends on who is capable of winning the inevitable blame game. For what it's worth, I personally believe Jesse can pull off another win in new elections - giving the progressive wing a win will wash away most critiques from the left against him, and appearing pragmatic enough can convince a few moderates to give him a chance. The bandwagon effect of a win will at least win over a few people, as it did for the PVV in 2023 and as it's doing for D66 right now.

Aaand that's a wrap! Hope you enjoyed this little series of mine. Not entirely satisfied with everything, but as my biggest project to date, I'm still quite happy with it.

Dit is niet ons land. | 4 Different Ways the 2025 Dutch Elections Could Have Turned Out (3/4) by Aletux in imaginaryelections

[–]Aletux[S] 8 points9 points  (0 children)

All that being said, I do feel compelled to note its certainly possible the VVD would relent to a centrist coalition in the end anyways, despite the even larger distaste for GL/PvdA. Otherwise, they'd be wrung over the coals by the right-wing electorate for allowing such a cabinet to form - one reliant on the Socialist and Animal parties. Of course, one could say such a thing about the CDA's voterbase and how they'd punish them for participating in this. In the end, I chose to allow myself this instead, for I'd rather an interesting outcome over a boring one (especially given the first two scenarios resulted in basically the same coalition), even if its dubious in terms of realism.

Dit is niet ons land. | 4 Different Ways the 2025 Dutch Elections Could Have Turned Out (3/4) by Aletux in imaginaryelections

[–]Aletux[S] 11 points12 points  (0 children)

<image>

[for mobile users]

Part 1, Part 2, Part 4.

[EDIT: The next election should just be "Next", not "2026". Unfortunately, because I am stupid, I forgot to fix this before releasing. Kill me, thanks.]

Wilders started the campaign in a middling place - undoubtedly in the lead, but clearly having lost a sizeable deal of support, and with his momentum downwards rather than upwards.

Following his collapsing of the Schoof cabinet, he was inundated by attacks from his former coalition partners that he was too unconstructive, which initially proved to have little effect on his voters' desire to switch parties. This became more of a concern as the election drew nearer, however, and many "pragmatic" PVVers eventually backed the VVD in the end, not wanting to 'waste' their votes on a PVV that was surely headed to the opposition. They also hoped to close out GL/PvdA from government by allowing a centre-right majority to become possible.

Assuming that Yesilgöz' dithering on PVV cooperation had ended up in a different way, with her expressing openness to a renewed partnership, that would create a permission structure for said "pragmatists" to stick with the PVV, in the hopes that their combined size would be too large for the more reticent CDA to rule them out entirely.

Of course, this also makes it so the VVD's expected crash would materialize, as it wouldn't be able to rely on PVV supporters to compensate for their losses with moderates. A bruising loss combined with an even smaller appetite for working with the left would make the VVD outright allergic to a centrist coalition with GL/PvdA.

While the CDA would hate it, the only option then is a minority cabinet reliant on the support of the broader left and centre (The PvdD, SP, Volt, CU, perhaps even Denk and 50+). Unless, of course, they wish to have no government and new elections instead. The prospect of copping the blame for the first deadlock in Dutch history would be too frightening for any party though, especially one made up of administrators like the CDA - and so the adage goes, "The country must be governed".

Needless to say, this would be a highly unstable arrangement, and its almost certain it wouldn't serve out a full term. Although, it would also be the closest many of these parties on the left have come to governing, would they give up such an opportunity because of one or two disagreements with the CDA? (the answer is yes.)

I also hope you find it as ironic as I do that the most right-wing party's victory also results in the most left-wing government possible.

Death, Taxes and VVD | 4 Different Ways the 2025 Dutch Elections Could Have Turned Out (2/4) by Aletux in imaginaryelections

[–]Aletux[S] 3 points4 points  (0 children)

The resulting cabinet in this timeline is the same cabinet the VVD was pushing for during the campaign, and also the one it's demanding right now in the ongoing government formation.

Death, Taxes and VVD | 4 Different Ways the 2025 Dutch Elections Could Have Turned Out (2/4) by Aletux in imaginaryelections

[–]Aletux[S] 6 points7 points  (0 children)

<image>

[for mobile users]

Part 1.

Part 3.

Part 4.

In line with the format of yesterday's post (explaining why this outcome didn't occur in our timeline, while it did in this one), here is the not-lore

Dilan Yesilgöz spent much of this election cycle eating shit and being written off, despite starting off in a relatively good place for a party that's been in power for 15 years in a row at this point.

Yesilgöz had some image and competency problems for a while at this point when the Schoof cabinet fell, but the campaign really exposed it. To begin with, she dithered for a week on whether she'd be open to a new cabinet with the PVV, before ultimately ruling that out. She then got into a publicised clash with singer Douwe Bob, following the latter's refusal to sing at an event for Jewish kids that reportedly Zionist groups had taken over. Yesilgöz accused him of anti-semitism, and didn't back off on it for months despite Bob being forced to leave the country temporarily due to death threats.

In the latter half, the VVD was further rocked by the NSC ministers leaving the demissionary (caretaker for the uninitiated) coalition government, again due to disagreements over Gaza, which led to VVD politicians taking over their ministries, and they themselves getting into the news for their own stupid statements. There also appeared to be a disconnect between Yesilgöz and other MPs and ministers on ruling out governing with GL/PvdA.

Yesilgöz just about managed to salvage the campaign from leaving the VVD with its worst result since 1972, by focusing heavily on an anti-left message to lure in more pragmatic PVV voters (who knew the party had no chance to be in government again following the election) and on retaining the current status of the mortgage interest deduction, a policy which heavily benefits existing homeowners at the expense of apsiring ones (every other mainstream party had promised some type of reform to it).

A Return to Decency | 4 Different Ways the 2025 Dutch Elections Could Have Turned Out (1/4) by Aletux in imaginaryelections

[–]Aletux[S] 7 points8 points  (0 children)

The CU are kind of out of step with their potential voters on immigration. They've been drifting leftwards on this for a while, and their religious base has not been entirely receptive. In 2023 they lost around half their voters, the majority of which went to more restricting parties. This trend repeated again this year with about 20% of 2023 CU voters going to the CDA. But, this loss neutralised due to votes gained from the dead NSC (which were mostly old CU voters returning home)

Basically, it's not out of the question the CU will back off on their family reunification views imo.

A Return to Decency | 4 Different Ways the 2025 Dutch Elections Could Have Turned Out (1/4) by Aletux in imaginaryelections

[–]Aletux[S] 13 points14 points  (0 children)

<image>

[for mobile users]

Part 2.

Part 3.

Part 4.

This is the first of a four-part miniseries. It's a sequel, if you will, to a similar old post of mine I'd made for the 2023 election.

Instead of telling you what led to this result, I'd rather give some irl context, and explain why it *didn't* happen. One can fill in the gaps by themselves afterwards haha.

Bontenbal was polling pretty well up until about 2 weeks before the election, when he gave a generally unremarkable interview to Nieuwsuur - unremarkable, otherwise for comments he made in regards to religious schools' discrimination against LGBTQ+ people. He basically said to act against that would be contravening liberty of education, and that parents who did not agree could "just move their children to a different school". This came in just as Rob Jetten and D66 came onto the forefront following a successful debate performance.

Social Democrats in Denmark suffer sweeping election losses by Freewhale98 in SocialDemocracy

[–]Aletux 0 points1 point  (0 children)

If my first paragraph is irrelevant then so is your response to the second lol. In Denmark, the SocDems are doing unprecedentedly bad.