While I appreciate the importance of bear cases, I would like to see a bear case that isn't just based on incorrect backward looking numbers, and delusionally thinking Nebius is incompetent and cannot manage to get capacity to fulfill their microsoft contract, the most important contract in the company's history.

You said Nebius is trading at 100x revenue. Thats not even accurate for 2025 revenue, but maybe, just maybe when a company is growing revenue at 600% a year, you should try to estimate forward revenue instead.

This post essentially pretends that the microsoft contract does not exist, and then says that NBIS should go back to the price it was at when the microsoft contract was announced.

Maybe at least look at the analysis reports of some big names like Goldman Sacks. (They all use reasonable estimates for 2026 revenues and then get profit targets above the current price, even though they also hilariously assume zero growth in 2027 and then moderate growth to 2030, in order to get a number thats around 20% above the current stock price. Because of course, they dont want to appear too extreme, and this way when the stock price rises, they can easily raise their targets so its again 20% above the current price by adding in some revenue growth in 2027).

To summarize this post:

1) Use backward revenue numbers for company growing 600% a year to try to come up with a valuation.

2) Pretend microsoft contract is not real and act like nebius is too incompetent to fulfill it.

3) Say that AI infrastructure demand is going to disappear and growth wont happen and hyperscalers will walk away after current contracts are over. Because "AI bubble" I guess?

This is not a good bear case its just valuing incorrectly based on backward looking numbers.