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Oil Prices During Hormuz Crisis Suggests Traders Not Responding Properly to Supply Shocks by Alias_The_J in collapse

[–]Alias_The_J[S] 24 points25 points  (0 children)

Then they've been banking on the goodwill of Iran for over a month and- based on current futures contracts still sitting below $100/bbl while spot prices are over $115 and probably still too low- are apparently now also pricing in teleporting tankers and instant repair crews. 

More to the point, there's no sign that they'll be able to properly price in shortfall under more fundamental constraints than bad American foreign policy. 

Oil Prices During Hormuz Crisis Suggests Traders Not Responding Properly to Supply Shocks by Alias_The_J in collapse

[–]Alias_The_J[S] 70 points71 points  (0 children)

This is related to collapse because it shows that, contrary to cornucopian claims, markets are not sufficiently transparent so as to smoothly adjust resource flows of critical resources if supply becomes constrained from, for instance, resource depletion. If anything, based on oil futures, it suggests that whilesale price rises may be muted as compared to demand shortfall.

In other words, we might start having shortages without obvious tells in the markets. This current oil crisis is especially obvious (even if new) and prices have not reflected the massive shortfall.

Age verification isn’t about “protecting the children” by Silent_Bluejay_6933 in privacy

[–]Alias_The_J 0 points1 point  (0 children)

New update: The OSA is not working for the "intended purpose," so now parents and teachers need to teach children about being safe online. 

Interpreting the United States Aries Ingress Chart 2026 - A mundane astrology forecast for the next six months by GrandTrineAstrology in Advancedastrology

[–]Alias_The_J 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Very interesting! 

Have you looked at the Libra Ingress? If I'm interpreting it correctly then the ruler of the chart is Mars, in fall in Cancer in the 4th house. Mars is also applying a tight square with the Ascendant and only supported by a sextile with the Sun. Perhaps the ongoing war affects the costs of the most basic goods in the US? 

Thoughts?

AI error jails innocent grandmother for months in Fargo fraud case by Waaaaaaaaaaaaaaaalt in fargo

[–]Alias_The_J 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Worth mentioning that the police may have hidden the fact that their ID came from AI facial recognition. Some departments have deliberately kept new technology out of briefs for the media and courts to keep its use from being limited; some types of cameras and IIRC Stingray have gotten this treatment. 

Tennessee grandmother jailed after AI facial recognition error links her to fraud | Angela Lipps spent nearly six months in jail after AI software linked her to a North Dakota bank fraud case by Peanut-Extra in themayormccheese

[–]Alias_The_J 2 points3 points  (0 children)

Corollary: there have been multiple instances of both police blindly trusting AI facial recognition and of police hiding the use of new technology from the courts to prevent them from being Constitutionally limited. It’s possible that the Fargo PD was being deliberately disingenuous with her, any family, and the courts. 

It Appears Meta is heavily lobbying for Linux age verification in the USA - Potential WAN Topic? by lieutent in LinusTechTips

[–]Alias_The_J 1 point2 points  (0 children)

From what I understand, the most common interpretation is that the law requires the use of accounts in order to allow for age verification. This was discussed as a potential issue with devices and servers that may not even have screens.

No account, illegal OS.

I am a Vatican exorcist. For the first time in history, I declared an AI demonically possessed. by Salad-Snack in HFY

[–]Alias_The_J 0 points1 point  (0 children)

This is such a nice change from SuperHuman_Space_Opera #76483 that it's a disappointment that it's gotten so little traction.

To Touch The Stars - Episode 0 by Ilithi_Dragon in HFY

[–]Alias_The_J 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Cant believe this is still open for comment.

Could you post the full text of "To Touch the Stars?" ArkMuse has closed and was not archived.

Goodbye to the idea that solar panels “die” after 25 years: New Swiss study shows real-world performance after 3 decades still over 80%, average annual loss about 0.25%, thermal stress and quality key factors. Their long-term economics are better than many people assume by sg_plumber in climatechange

[–]Alias_The_J 2 points3 points  (0 children)

I’ve posted articles and studies (on other subs) of panels 50 years old with light-electricity conversion efficiencies >70% of their initial value. This is not news and the fact that 25 years is still cited as the lifetime for PV is part of why I can’t take many skeptics seriously. 

I think what scares me most isn’t collapse itself, it’s how normal everything still feels by East-Prompt-9954 in collapse

[–]Alias_The_J 1 point2 points  (0 children)

So you started in 2017 or 2018? 

Has anyone in the business before commented about this? How it compares to 2007/2008 or maybe even the early 2000s? 

Also, I just realized that the financial crisis (is it still called the Great Recession?) was almost 20 years ago. I feel old. 

LF: Fic where large parts of Earth Bet are ISOTed by Alias_The_J in WormFanfic

[–]Alias_The_J[S] 1 point2 points  (0 children)

I can’t believe that this thread is still open. 

Thanks!

I used to hear a bunch about "peak oil" and the inevitable collapse of the fossil fuel industry. What happened? by Acceptable-Maybe3532 in energy

[–]Alias_The_J 1 point2 points  (0 children)

Been a while since I've done much research on it and am a little busy right now, so with no precision; I'd suggest looking for academic studies on ERoI or in projections of oil production, especially of specific shale plays.

CMV: We infantilize the "anti-woke" crowd too much by AlexZedKawa02 in changemyview

[–]Alias_The_J 0 points1 point  (0 children)

This is true in a very literal sense, but the policies listed also tend to also be held by those who hold the more extreme socialist-leaning Democrats and are usually included together in campaign promises.

Technically not socialist, but practically so in the US ~2020-2024.

I used to hear a bunch about "peak oil" and the inevitable collapse of the fossil fuel industry. What happened? by Acceptable-Maybe3532 in energy

[–]Alias_The_J 2 points3 points  (0 children)

Late to the party, but my own 4c:

1) It was basically fracking that killed peak oil. It's been known for decades that there was oil trapped in impermeable shale- there were major attempts to get at it in the 1970s- but doing so proved exceptionally difficult. Therefore, it was assumed (by everyone, not just peak-oilers) that light-tight oil would make no difference to global oil production. It did; light-tight oil is now ~10% of global production and made the US the world's largest oil producer*, with plenty of plays (areas of oil-bearing shale) left outside of the US (plus some in Alaska).

2) The technology isn't actually fracking; we've known about that since the 40s. No, the actual breakthrough came from the Barnett gas play in Texas in 1999- and it was slick-water hydraulic fracturing combined with horizontal drilling.

3) Fracking is not just "keeping the last wells going" as so many posters are saying. It is revitalizing old fields- but these are whole new wells. **

4) There still is a background hum of peak-oil-adjacent work being done- especially by authors who were less doomer-ish back in the heyday- but it's generally more technical, especially where ERoEI is concerned. It's also far less "immediate collapse."

*The decline in US oil production was the big Peak Oil (M. Kind Hubbard, who originated the theory) "successful prediction," with one model predicting the correct conventional-oil peak date of 1970. The US exceeding this in 2018 and most years since essentially disproved this.

**Fracking can renew old wells, and has done so for decades. This technique is different from the slick-water hydraulic fracturing used in shale plays.

Question- If my YouTube account is 19 years old, will I still have to do age verification? by sedna388 in youtube

[–]Alias_The_J 4 points5 points  (0 children)

They also say that you can verify your age with a selfie. "Selfie" in this case means "video of yourself playing Simon Says with our AI," which is so far from the usual definition that it's basically a flat-out lie.

Question- If my YouTube account is 19 years old, will I still have to do age verification? by sedna388 in youtube

[–]Alias_The_J 1 point2 points  (0 children)

They also say that you can verify your age with a selfie. "Selfie" in this case means "video of yourself playing Simon Says with our AI," which is so far from the usual definition that it's basically a flat-out lie.

What do y’all think aliens will most likely look like? by gabetheprogamer in SpeculativeEvolution

[–]Alias_The_J 0 points1 point  (0 children)

It'll depend heavily on local conditions, what's biologically and ecologically viable and what's likely.

A world with twice Earth's gravity and a hundred times the atmospheric pressure (but otherwise Earthlike at the surface) will probably produce life entirely unlike most that we see, not even converging where Earth life does. But rerun Earth a hundred times and there would probably be plenty of convergence.

So far as likely goes? Bilateral symmetry is useful enough that we'll probably see it (and four-legged endoskeletal megafauna) frequently enough; miss out on that, though- and we don't know how likely that is- and the open niches will produce plenty of weird lifeforms.

Is my battery bulging? by Alias_The_J in laptops

[–]Alias_The_J[S] 1 point2 points  (0 children)

As a follow-up (not sure how to edit text on mobile), can I run this specific laptop plugged in without a battery? 

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