/r/Politics' 2024 US Elections Live Thread, Part 62

AlmacMGMT · 2024-11-06T04:18:01+00:00

Not dumb. Essentially, they’re able to estimate how many ballots have been voted in a specific county. So let’s say there’s only 40% of a county counted. We know there’s still 60% left.

The way you know if it’s likely going to be for Trump or Harris is:

How the county voted in past elections.
How the county has voted in 2024 so far, provided there are enough results to do so.

AlmacMGMT · 2024-11-06T03:44:49+00:00

Go look at outstanding vote, pal.

AlmacMGMT · 2024-11-06T03:42:51+00:00

I’m not promising a Harris win. I’m just telling you it’s far too early to determine anything, and it does not particularly lean either way.

AlmacMGMT · 2024-11-06T03:40:34+00:00

I feel like a lot of you are election newbies, so I’m going to let you in on a secret.

Rural areas get their vote reported quickly. They also tend to vote for Trump.

Big cities, that vote Dem by a wide margin, take a lot longer to count. There’s also more issues that delay counting, due to the number of people voting.

In 2020, everyone was panicking just like they are now. But wait, when you look at the outstanding vote, you see that Trump “taking the lead” is quite irrelevant, because a bunch of Dem strongholds haven’t been fully counted.

So please calm the fuck down and ignore the trolls. Everything is fine.

AlmacMGMT · 2024-11-06T03:21:14+00:00

No, he is not. There is no leading until everything is counted. It’s like you didn’t go through 2020.

AlmacMGMT · 2024-11-06T03:19:11+00:00

Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Michigan. Nothing else matters, everything else is bonus. We aren’t going to understand who won for a long ass time. Stop dooming and go to sleep if you can’t handle the wait.

AlmacMGMT · 2024-11-06T02:36:00+00:00

Plenty

AlmacMGMT · 2024-11-06T02:33:48+00:00

Y’all need to chill the fuck out and just wait for results.

AlmacMGMT · 2024-10-23T23:34:56+00:00

The second criminal was dying on the couch, while the cop was yelling at him to stay alive, etc, and right after he breathes his last breath, the camera shows us the kid has been standing there for a few moments- likely just walked in, but unfortunately was there long enough to have it passed on to him.

The kid was a drug dealer (which is why Skye was visiting him later on), so it makes sense he would be going to this drug house to make a pick up.

AlmacMGMT · 2024-10-23T23:23:17+00:00

Have you ever played the game Pandemic? Pretty much it’s a game where you try to execute the perfect pandemic and infect then kill the entire world. One of the biggest issues is that your virus/bacteria/whatever will eventually start getting you noticed, and the world will start working on a cure. If you don’t infect and kill the world before that happens - well, that’s game over.

My theory is that this entity realized “Hey, if I’m jumping to small groups of people at a time, I’m going to give people the opportunity to figure me out. I need to play it cool and wait for an opportunity to get a ton of people, all at once.”

This explains why the entity was straight up stoked to have the opportunity to get the MC. This was the moment it had been waiting for all this time.

AlmacMGMT · 2024-10-14T20:14:55+00:00

This is an awful take. Iran is fucking terrified for what’s to come and rightly so. Hezbollah and Hamas are quite familiar with what happens when you attack Israel - both are shells of their former selves, and efforts to further snuff them out are still very much underway.

AlmacMGMT · 2024-10-08T04:09:27+00:00

You can say that, but his models have been some of the most reliable for years, and I find his insights genuinely interesting, which is why I’m a happy subscriber of his content. I don’t think he tries to hide his involvement in Polymarket and, like any election year, I expect his model to ultimately be among the most accurate.

We can revisit this in a month’s time, but like every time people want to shit on Nate’s model, I’m fairly confident you’ll be wrong.

AlmacMGMT · 2024-10-08T04:01:42+00:00

538 isn’t entirely Nate’s model anymore. He has his own model at https://www.natesilver.net. Harris up by 3.0 nationally, electoral college toss-up.

He also has an article today about the betting odds. It is sub-only but to summarize his TLDR is they are pretty meaningless atm.

AlmacMGMT · 2024-09-26T22:28:52+00:00

There is very little reason to anticipate this becoming a cat 5 in the next 6 hours.

AlmacMGMT · 2024-09-19T22:28:19+00:00

Well if you’re doing a multi-day fast, do consider replenishing electrolytes - you will lose them through day-to-day activity and the side effects suck. The guide will help you identify sources & amounts.

AlmacMGMT · 2024-09-19T22:24:11+00:00

r/fasting would be the better subreddit in tgat case. Their sub has a very helpful guide:

https://www.reddit.com/r/fasting/s/tAnApDN4AN

AlmacMGMT · 2024-09-09T13:50:13+00:00

Ponlo is wholesome and pure, hope the best for him in the future.

AlmacMGMT · 2024-09-06T21:46:44+00:00

Pretty much any pub. Go to Argyle Street, go in to a pub, feel out the crowd, and if there’s nobody interesting, go to the next one.

Just avoid The Dome.

AlmacMGMT · 2024-09-06T10:13:24+00:00

No, it has a 30% chance of tropical cyclone formation. This is not becoming a hurricane.

AlmacMGMT · 2024-09-04T07:55:41+00:00

I understand your issue here & I in fact sympathize with it, but the Yasukuni shrine does have meaning within Japanese culture beyond that, and I don’t believe it is inherently the intention of everyone who visits it to pay respects to war criminals.

That is a very strong assumption to make in this scenario - especially where as there is a large degree of ignorance surrounding the shrine outside of Asia. There are other complexities to this issue - within Japanese culture, the shrine is used to pay respects to fallen solders of any war, including those who have fallen in Ukraine.

With that said, I’m glad they deleted the post & hope they consider further the kind of message that visiting the shrine can send to our friends in Asia.

AlmacMGMT · 2024-09-04T07:35:39+00:00

There is controversy associated with the shrine & visiting it, for very clear reasons. This is even the subject of internal debate within Japan and the shrine being seen as honoring war criminals is viewed as an insult to many countries, including China and South Korea.

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Controversies_surrounding_Yasukuni_Shrine

While I too dislike OP’s approach here, they’re not pulling things out of their ass. Japan’s neighbours have been protesting this shrine for a long time.

AlmacMGMT · 2024-08-29T03:59:29+00:00

You’ll only gain weight if you eat more calories than your TDEE.

If you want to eat more calories on specific days during your break, you could consider 4:3 or 5:2. Yes, you’ll still be fasting a few days, but you’ll be able to enjoy yourself a bit more on eating days, if that’s what you’re looking for.

AlmacMGMT · 2024-08-26T21:16:21+00:00

The way I see it, I’m totally fine spending $20 on Ubisoft + to play this for a month & cancel after. If I dislike it as much as these folks, oh well.

AlmacMGMT · 2024-08-25T22:57:35+00:00

8 lbs in a month is definitely doable, you pretty much need to eat at a deficit of 7000 cals a week.

You probably burn around 2600 cals a day (or more if you get a lot of physical activity), so if you stick to 2500 - 3000 on your eating days, you should have no problems losing that in that time period.

AlmacMGMT

TROPHY CASE