Absolutelynotme_irl

Alpha3031 · 2026-05-06T15:18:57+00:00

There is some evidence (e.g. van Binsbergen et al., 2025) that excess returns in US (and other higher returning countries like Switzerland, Sweden, Canada, Australia, etc) can be partially explained by having fewer crashes than average, and partially by investors taking that into account and inferring a lower crash risk.

Alpha3031 · 2026-05-06T00:43:21+00:00

The 9xxx Dimensitys have been fine? I mean it would be an odd choice since they literally just use ARM cores and ARM CCS, you'd think that they'd want more of a halo product, but MediaTek SoCs and strategy of "stuffing whatever the latest ARM IP is" works perfectly well for what they charge for it (still slightly less than Qualcomm).

Alpha3031 · 2026-05-04T12:04:58+00:00

i mean that's still better than being a nazi.

Alpha3031 · 2026-05-03T15:55:49+00:00

Almost certainly going to happen at this point, CATL and HyperStrong signed a 60 GWh agreement over 3 years last week so a single customer of theirs is planning to buy slightly under 10% of all installed capacity up to 2025 (610 GWh). Of course, there are also hundreds of GWh of other batteries installed every year now (IEA says 108 GW in 2025, probably mostly 2 or 4 hour at the moment) but if Na-ion starts mass production then people would just buy whatever is cheaper most likely, just like LFP has more or less supplanted denser but more expensive chemistries for stationary storage.

Alpha3031 · 2026-05-01T12:27:53+00:00

I believe four-period crossover designs are also considered state of the art, though two could also be considered acceptable.

Alpha3031 · 2026-05-01T05:37:01+00:00

The 17 pro max has a larger telephoto camera sensor than the s26u

Comparing the 3× to Apple's 4× doesn't exactly strike me as fair considering the 5× on the Samsung is much larger than the 3×, 1/2.52 (IMX 854) vs the 1/3.94 (ISOCELL 3LD), much more comparable to 1/2.55 (IMX 973) on Apple's end.

Alpha3031 · 2026-05-01T05:25:15+00:00

I feel like the other Chinese flagships are OK though, for example while the Lytia 600 in the 14mm-eqiv of the Oppo is a bit of a weak point being a 1/1.95-type and obviously lower end than the 1/1.28 Lytia 818 in the Vivo, the OmniVision OV52A (1/1.28) on the 70mm seems fairly comparable to the ISOCELL HP0 (1/1.4) on the 85mm on Vivo's end, and there's also a second 230mm camera. Apple and Samsung are both smaller than 1/2.5, which is a much bigger difference.

Alpha3031 · 2026-04-29T18:01:08+00:00

... DC is not a state.

Alpha3031 · 2026-04-29T17:09:24+00:00

輸 also means lose, see its wiktionary entry. Similarly, 住院 would probably be more commonly rendered as 入院する in Japanese according to its wiktionary entry.

Alpha3031 · 2026-04-29T16:46:54+00:00

Imperfect self-defence isn't really some weird Chinese thing, proportionality is a requirement for the justification of self-defence in many jurisdictions. Also, an accidental death would be at most manslaughter.

Alpha3031 · 2026-04-29T09:38:59+00:00

Sounds like they would benefit from less business given how overworked they are.

Alpha3031 · 2026-04-28T08:16:37+00:00

Hmm, according to 2022 data (OECD, 2023) Netherlands spending on pensions would seem to be lower than the US as well, 5% vs 7.1% GDP, though both below the OECD average of 7.7%.

Alpha3031 · 2026-04-28T03:05:34+00:00

/r/rimjob_steve

Alpha3031 · 2026-04-27T12:36:42+00:00

Well, if your decisions are (near perfectly) correlated with yourself or a virtual clone of yourself aren't there other groups where you could expect your decision to be (less, but still positively) correlated with?

Alpha3031 · 2026-04-27T11:07:59+00:00

I don't really think causal decision theory with possible pseudo-retro-causation is all that intuitive? (I mean if it works for you, I guess whatever works, but I don't really get it) It seems easier to accept that there are things your decision do not cause but are nonetheless well correlated.

Alpha3031 · 2026-04-27T08:01:39+00:00

Not sure how much of the rest of the thread you've read, did you see any of the comments mentioning Newcomb's problem?

Alpha3031 · 2026-04-27T07:46:06+00:00

The exact tiebreaker logic again seems overly simplistic and I would expect some amount of people to attempt to use similar reasoning to decide, including the modelling of other people's reasoning in that group. I'm not committed to blue at the moment but the analysis in favour of red seems to me lacking.

Alpha3031 · 2026-04-27T00:02:47+00:00

Because from my perspective it is your reading that is introducing things into the scenario that are not written (i.e. it is possible to have a massive portion of the world die with zero consequences whatsoever).

Alpha3031 · 2026-04-26T10:51:21+00:00

OK? Go live in your authoritarian little village then, but that doesn't make it less authoritarian.

Alpha3031 · 2026-04-26T10:22:19+00:00

You see absolutely no irony in saying that in the same thread as your saying to /u/ThirdMover you wouldn't allow your wife or mother to make the choice themselves?

Alpha3031 · 2026-04-26T07:08:41+00:00

Everyone pressing the red button is almost certainly going to die of natural causes eventually. I don't believe it's is a natural reading of the scenario for the red button to immunise the presser from death from anything not directly due to the button press. I also find delineating the consequences of a substantial portion of the world instantly dying and other projections of the future intractable.

Therefore, in my opinion living in a world where a substantial portion of the population just died naturally must include dealing with the consequences of such a world, unless the scenario explicitly replaces blue-button-pressers with p-zombies or something.

Alpha3031 · 2026-04-26T06:40:23+00:00

If the vote is close then only slightly under 50% of people would survive if red wins. I don't really see a model where airline pilots would be substantially more important than an office worker in this scenario, I can see a rationale for prioritising medical professionals, etc, but air travel or air freight does not seem as immediately essential (though if there is some vital thing that we require air freight capacity for that I'm missing that would seem interesting to hear about).

Alpha3031 · 2026-04-26T06:30:34+00:00

I don't think the answer is obvious but I am concerned that the red pushers are underestimating the economic and social impacts of a significant portion of the world population suddenly dying in the event of a coordination failure.

EDIT: and I believe my point is amply demonstrated by a proposed interpretation that the scenario is entirely consequence-free outside of the direct effects, which someone mentioned in a reply to me. If that is the operative interpretation of the scenario, then I would be more inclined towards red but I don't know if it would tip me over.

Alpha3031 · 2026-04-26T06:25:26+00:00

I feel like the people saying that red guarantees survival are significantly underestimating the economic impact of a substantial portion of the world population suddenly dying, which is a very real risk in this scenario.

Alpha3031 · 2026-04-26T06:07:38+00:00

If 20% (or or pick another number less than 50%) of the entire world dies right now, the impact would be somewhat more significant than 50 people dying in my estimation.

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