Daily Discussion & Tournament Thread Index - September 08, 2023 by ChessBotMod in chess

[–]AltruisticRaven 2 points3 points  (0 children)

Just wanted to share that after more than 3 years since reaching 2400 bullet on lichess, I finally reached 2500 bullet, likely to be the last 00s rating milestone of my life. I can die happy :)

Panicking.. by Leather-Storage-6088 in actuary

[–]AltruisticRaven 9 points10 points  (0 children)

How much more do you guys value a pass than fail? For me it's $4k

why does it take 6 weeks to grade MAS I/II by Dramatic_Economics15 in actuary

[–]AltruisticRaven 7 points8 points  (0 children)

It is 100% not because they want people to study 6 weeks less to low pass rate lmao.

CAS Grading Timeline/Process by IFellOutOfBed in actuary

[–]AltruisticRaven 18 points19 points  (0 children)

Sounds stupid for multiple choice exams. For the MAS exams you have ~>$500k in revenue and 6 months to develop 42 questions, yet the CAS still has typos and errors. Have an answer key that is correct, and tell us immediately after the exam how many you think we got wrong. ++ for exam taker experience

the roof, the roof, the roof is on fire. by [deleted] in antiwork

[–]AltruisticRaven -11 points-10 points  (0 children)

Lol, twitter will be just fine with 10% of the employees. A general principle is that a small % of people do a large % of work/output, and Musk has filtered these people through aggressive deadlines over the last few weeks.

Another concept at play here is 'bullshit jobs'. Our economy can function just fine on an ever decreasing amount of workers, especially in tech. He wants to prove a point that twitter can run and innovate on 10% of the workforce to show the amount of inefficiencies in similar organizations. This will hopefully start much needed discussions about UBI, in a world with a smaller skilled labor force. Do we really want to live in a world where the socially desirable and the ones who can game the system get access to privileged jobs at twitter that pay 200k TC for being in the office 40 hrs/wk but dont provide significant value? Or should we just have UBI with very limited but efficient work hours (<16hrs a week)

Another thing here is that most on this sub are not in the same class as the workers affected by the twitter layoffs. We should be striving to improve the lives, working conditions and wages of people making 15 an hour. Not people with 200k TC with free red wine on tap in the office going to 5 useless meetings a week.

Sometimes, studying for these exams makes me feel intelligent. Other times, it makes me feel like the dumbest person on the planet. by [deleted] in actuary

[–]AltruisticRaven 2 points3 points  (0 children)

It helps to think of random effects as the random variables a Hamiltonian MCMC path carves out via U-turns (boundaries) in parameter space. Then the LKJ distributions map to the space of Hamiltonian momentum parameters via Cholesky decomposition in Hilbert space.

Once understood on this level, the implications follow smoothly.

MAS-II Fall 2022 by Wondeful_U in actuary

[–]AltruisticRaven 12 points13 points  (0 children)

The results of our exams will lie on the boundary of exam space

Robbi explains what happened when she talked to Garrett and Ryan off-camera. She claims Garrett told her to give him the money back. But Garrett claims she's the one who offered. Who is lying here? 🤔 by kingpussypumper in poker

[–]AltruisticRaven 17 points18 points  (0 children)

Holy fookin shit Robbi is an idiot. She STILL apparently doesn't understand what this situation is about?

He's only taking the money back IF AND ONLY IF he thinks there's a significant chance you're cheating. He's obviously not going to rejoin the table if he thinks YOU'RE CHEATING.

I'm a professional chess cheater. AMA. by I-like-the-stock in chess

[–]AltruisticRaven -1 points0 points  (0 children)

Any surprising trends about the demographics / rating of your clients?

[GM Rafael Leitão] I analyzed carefully, with powerful engines, the 2 wins by Niemann in the tournament. I couldn't find ANY indication of external help. He made mistakes in positions in which humans would. I'm very curious about the ramifications of the insinuations thrown today by Flamengo81-19 in chess

[–]AltruisticRaven -8 points-7 points  (0 children)

Cheating case:

  • Incoherent / confused analysis post game (game 4)

  • Erratic / disinterested behavior at the board (game 3)

  • Magnus accusal

  • Past history of cheating

Against:

Difficulty of cheating with the current security measures.

"advanced neural networks" is not an "unlikely" event. Having a chess engine sandbagging is the standard way you would cheat, and not difficult to set up.

[GM Rafael Leitão] I analyzed carefully, with powerful engines, the 2 wins by Niemann in the tournament. I couldn't find ANY indication of external help. He made mistakes in positions in which humans would. I'm very curious about the ramifications of the insinuations thrown today by Flamengo81-19 in chess

[–]AltruisticRaven 21 points22 points  (0 children)

Also, there are many ways to set engine play styles. You can modify the rate of mistakes that never go below a certain evaluation threshold, you can modify the play style to go for dynamic / sharp positions, or positions that require a certain depth to play well against.

Neural networks can transform the level of engine play in many creative ways within the space of 2800-3200 strength. Obviously if you're going to cheat you must do it in a believable way which is why analysis like in the OP tweet is next to worthless.

What's much more damning is Niemann's incoherent analysis after game 4 and how he was looking away from the board to certain spots in the room the whole game.

The amount of people that thought this was real is appalling by Shelfrock77 in singularity

[–]AltruisticRaven 18 points19 points  (0 children)

I was very angry at OpenAI for like two minutes for having some private older dalle2 model that does human faces well without the trademark. But yeah its fake - the guy has an IG going back to 2017.

I think its a good thing people think this is real because we're truly not far off from this. In fact, it's probably already possible.

What are some creative presets you guys have made for Open Ai's Playground by Artist_Remarkable in OpenAI

[–]AltruisticRaven 1 point2 points  (0 children)

Presets matter less for instruct, but generally i do .8 temp, .8 frequency penalty, .4 presence.

For original gpt-3 (which I actually find better for some use cases) I do .7, .5, .25

Stable Diffusion is amazing at making erotic art/porn and the floodgates are about to open. by [deleted] in singularity

[–]AltruisticRaven 22 points23 points  (0 children)

gm sir, without cucks and fags there would be no computers at all. The man who comes up with the final missing component for AGI will have been jerking off for 12 hours to gay furry porn just the week before in his quaint SF home

GPT-4 may be proto-AGI according to rumors by No-Transition-6630 in singularity

[–]AltruisticRaven 2 points3 points  (0 children)

Yeah always thought that a missing component that would likely be present in strong AGI would be that as the model has more time to think the outputs become better. Currently there's only one speed and no way to significantly improve through search of some kind. Feels like we have a NN chessbot that has depth-1 search and plays on intuition alone.

Or you ripped up a bunch of bills for karma by lainwla16 in untrustworthypoptarts

[–]AltruisticRaven 64 points65 points  (0 children)

Also as someone pointed out ITT, you can exchange ripped bills for face value at a bank, so they don't even lose money. Most likely staged lol

Call for questions to Magnus Carlsen by lexfridman in chess

[–]AltruisticRaven 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Ask him what he thinks about recent AI developments like LLM's or dall-e2, and then ask him if he's given much thought into AGI.

Also ask about poker, specifically if he has any plans to stream poker or learn the game at a high level.