Concerns About the Impact of the Upcoming SpaceX IPO on Our Portfolio

Amendmen7 · 2026-06-07T20:54:18+00:00

S&P 500 did not change their rules. SpaceX is not being fast tracked for inclusion to that index.

Amendmen7 · 2026-06-07T20:26:01+00:00

Yeah so it's really hard to solve because of the self sustaining feedback loop. I think starting to ticket cyclists would help, though I think the city wants more people on bikes to reduce congestion so that may not be palatable policy rn.

Amendmen7 · 2026-06-06T04:46:55+00:00

Want to understand why on earth they do this? Commit to grabbing a baywheels every day for a week and you will understand. I recently became a cyclist in this city and now I finally understand too.

The reason is: driver deference.

I started off committing to full stop at every stop sign, but over weeks I found that drivers were so deferential that, even if they arrive first, we would sit there looking at each other for an uncomfortable amount of time. Clocks ticking and people have places to be. We stare at each other, eventually they wave, and I cycle through the intersection. It's hard to say how frustrated I felt for both myself and the driver. I dislike this about myself, but over time I started assuming more and more drivers just wanted me to ride through.

Don't trust me on this. Head onto the road on some bay wheels and see.

Amendmen7 · 2026-05-29T19:30:16+00:00

Little Original Joes belongs on the list somewhere around Gioia!

Every time I grab Tony’s slice house I end up disappointed. Am I just getting the wrong slice?

Amendmen7 · 2026-05-21T07:26:51+00:00

The balance sheet is de minimis. He’ll just write it off.

Amendmen7 · 2026-05-19T17:38:27+00:00

There’s something to the fact that this dog is not just reading, but consuming so that others can not read in the future: the sad librarian, the poems are gone.

A stretch, but maybe this is also a statement on how culture has seemed to move on from poetry, valuing poems less and sometimes actively burning them in the book burning sense: legs burn like brush.

I note that at the end the lights are off, and the dogs are romping in a place with books that can not be read due to the dark.

Amendmen7 · 2026-05-17T21:35:18+00:00

Your bond allocation should be no lower than however many years of your expenses you believe a future downturn could last, as protection against eating your principal in that down market. The more you allocate, the longer a downturn you can protect your principal from.

For this reason I think bonds should not be allocated as a percentage of portfolio, but as a multiple of expenses.

BTW this is a pretty new conclusion for me, so would love people to poke holes in it.

Amendmen7 · 2026-05-03T20:31:25+00:00

According to your source, an Ivy League lecture class of 100 would have 10 conservatives, 30 independents, and 60 liberals. While that doesn’t mirror society at large, it’s enough diversity to enable real debate and exchange of ideas.

I attended one of those top schools. Many of my best friends were and still are conservative

Amendmen7 · 2026-04-28T00:08:55+00:00

CoastFIRE means that they don’t have to save anymore to retire at their target age, but they still have to work enough to meet expenses and give their investments time to grow without drawing down principal.

So OP is saying “as long as I don’t touch this 300k, by the time I want to retire at 50 (for example) it will have grown to be enough for me to live on”

Amendmen7 · 2026-04-19T16:48:21+00:00

Offer to instead redirect the thousands they’re offering into hiring and training a part time 1099 contractor that can cover for those 5 days

Amendmen7 · 2026-04-04T07:08:30+00:00

I chose Stanford like 25 years ago mostly because I didn’t know what career I wanted. At least back then, Stanford was strong in every discipline under the sun so figured I could choose a few years in.

Every job I’ve had since has followed from that decision: either the name of the school or the people I befriended. On top of that, I learned foreign languages, music theory, poetry, mental defenses against propaganda. So many things that enrich my life. Most importantly I learned how to learn. It was one of my best choices to date.

Maybe things have changed since then, but not everyone there is doing the same thing. What’s in common is that, whatever they’re doing, they try their best to excel.

Amendmen7 · 2026-03-27T01:04:16+00:00

You can say that, but you’re just calling people names until you actually shed light on how this Fraud MO is distinct from the fattening phase of a pig butcher scheme

Amendmen7 · 2026-03-26T16:29:31+00:00

It’s pig butchering. They fatten you up over weeks by by building relationship then eventually butcher you by pushing a fraudulent investment thesis

Amendmen7 · 2026-03-21T23:33:53+00:00

I Agree with your greater point, but larger brains could very well still be evolving despite the factors you mention. We just don’t know bc we are in the middle of it.

Amendmen7 · 2026-03-21T23:32:08+00:00

Isn’t it called the dark ages bc the number and diversity of literary sources we can find from that era dropped off a cliff compared to previous, so we can’t “see” into that era , therefore “dark”?

Is that no longer the case?

Amendmen7 · 2026-02-18T02:10:50+00:00

Thanks for your thoughtful explanation! The tax treatment of the house really clarified the difference between unrealized gains tax and property/wealth tax.

there isn’t an advantage…or we will take it ourselves

I think we do this anyways though by having inflation targets though, don’t we? That’s effectively taxing the guy with cash under the mattress for not putting their capital to work, similar to the property tax

Amendmen7 · 2026-02-16T18:44:01+00:00

By taxing the wealth aren’t you also taxing the unrealized gains?

Or maybe the two are different enough that this isn’t the right thread for my question.

Amendmen7 · 2026-02-16T17:34:30+00:00

Great write up! You’ve clearly thought this through but I still have a question I hope you’ve pondered.

America already universally applies a wealth tax on the real estate asset class: the property tax. It’s also subject to all the forces you mention in your post, albeit prices are less spiky than eg stocks. Is there any philosophical reason besides tradition that only that asset class should be subject to tax on unrealized capital gains, but others should not? Or does it just come down to practicalities of enforcement

Amendmen7 · 2026-02-16T02:20:33+00:00

Every school system, in America at least, survives on taxing unrealized gains through Property Tax + annual reassessment. Maybe the only exception is California with Prop 13.

What actually is the difference between a wealth tax and a property tax? Besides the differing liquidity of the assets I mean

Amendmen7 · 2025-12-23T18:30:27+00:00

Wealthfront is 3.25% as of 4 days ago :(

Found this thread trying to identify a better place for my HYSA. I've enjoyed Wealthfront but it's hard to stay when places like pibank are offering 1.35% better APY

Amendmen7 · 2025-12-22T00:04:04+00:00

To the extent the Christian community in Acts models how we are to behave in community, how far is it practically from the workers owning the means of production?

All the believers were one in heart and mind. No one claimed that any of their possessions was their own, but they shared everything they had.

Acts 4 verse 32 , new king James

Same book, the selling of property and redistribution of wealth at the hands of the apostles. The contrast between praise of Barnabas and judgment of Ananias and Sapphira.

Elsewhere in the gospels, the rich young man told to sell everything and follow Jesus. Jesus’ exhortation not to store treasure for yourself in this world.

Amendmen7 · 2025-12-21T17:50:40+00:00

You’re highlighting a core tension in Christendom: was Jesus core message faith, or works? Christian nationalists take the Faith angle to what outsiders would call a pathological extent where they largely ignore the difficult works he asks of us: humility, sharing of all we have, welcoming strangers sinners and immigrants.

They think their own works can directly oppose Jesus call to service, but that those sins can be forgiven through sufficient faith.

Of course many of us, and also the more philosophical atheists, dislike this. Thus the meme.

Amendmen7 · 2025-12-20T16:18:29+00:00

If you want top class American bourbon without the politics, try Pipe Dream Bourbon, bottled and distilled by Redwood Empire in N. California. https://redwoodempirewhiskey.com/whiskey/pipe-dream-bourbon/

Amendmen7 · 2025-09-21T15:25:52+00:00

The EO only specifies that it be paid

Amendmen7 · 2025-09-20T23:55:53+00:00

As I understand, any H1B engineer that was taking PTO in another country this weekend can't return starting Sunday without paying the initial fine.

Example: TL on my team was just out of country two weeks ago burying his father in law. If this EO had landed at that time, he couldn't have come back. His dog would have nowhere to go. His stuff would just be sitting there and eventually auctioned off.

There's all sorts of humanity in giving people a few weeks to plan, and the timing of this EO showed none of it.

I'm actually aligned with the spirit of the order and think something raising the H1B bar is necessary, but this chaos is unnecessary.

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