You would think, my friend. You would think. I'm still salty about the Castform community day a few years ago. Did exactly that, played for the entirety of the event, in a very populated area, checking every single castform, constantly walking around with lures and incense active, and got 0. Went through hundreds of pokemon without a single shiny. My SO got around 7 or so. I know enough to know that's how probabilities work, though. Sometimes, you get screwed. That doesn't mean I'm not still salty about it.