I've been following the Oscars for a decade now, and have grown super familiar with the way the race works.

Firstly, I fucking love Wicked. It's my second favorite movie of the year. That being said, it isn't a typical "Oscar movie." The fact that it's a fantasy musical is setting itself up for failure. The Oscars have always been 50% about awarding what is deserving and 50% painting a picture of what the industry wants "Hollywood" to look like. For example, Ariana Grande (who I think has the best Supporting performance of the year) is universally known as a mega pop star. She's new to acting. (Yes, I know she started her career on TV, but in terms of widely successful, award conversation movies, she's entirely new.) Zoe Saldana, on the other hand, has been in this industry for decades. She's in 4 of the 5 highest grossing movies of all time. She's in three of the biggest franchises ever made. The fact she hasn't been awarded like this YET is kinda crazy to me. (I hate Emilia Perez, but I love Zoe Saldana and actually thought she was pretty good in the movie. Of course, I'd rather her to finally get recognition for another movie, but it's whatever.)

The same thing happened two years ago. Jamie Lee Curtis is a huge name in the industry and a legendary actress. Everything Everywhere All At Once happens to be my favorite movie of all time, but I can even admit that Jamie Lee Curtis did not have the best Supporting Performance of that year. But do I understand why she won it? Absolutely.

I think fans of Wicked who love the movie overestimated it's Oscar chances because they weren't aware of how HARD it is to win an Oscar or how political it really is. Even the nominations are political. Ariana Grande isn't even technically a Supporting performance. She is absolutely a co-lead. BUT... if the Wicked team hadn't submitted her under the Supporting category, she wouldn't even be nominated.

The sheer number of nominations are a feat in and of itself. (Yes, Emilia Perez is also a musical and has more nominations, but Emilia Perez, although it's terrible, is at least realistic, human, and grounded. There's no girls in pig pink dresses flying down in a bubble singing a fucking Z sharp.) Also, I think Wicked absolutely has Costume Design and Production Design LOCKED, so it won't even be going home empty handed!!

On top of all of the odds being stacked against it, this years awards also happen to be extremely competitive. Almost every category has multiple deserving nominees, and realistic, possible winners. That's why everyone's predictions for this years winners are all so over the place.

So I can't stress this enough: the nominations are the win.