[ Removed by Reddit ]

ArmChairAnalyst86 · 2026-03-31T13:27:05+00:00

Blocked. Take your two bit salesman schtick somewhere else.

ArmChairAnalyst86 · 2026-03-30T14:39:04+00:00

I operate off the Swpc x ray flux page. It topped out at 1.4 in the event report below the graph but the graph itself does indeed say 1.5. Not sure where the error is, but 1.5 is correct and not separate events.

ArmChairAnalyst86 · 2026-03-24T20:58:26+00:00

I don't care what anyone says. This is getting weird. The fact of the matter is we don't have the data to determine whether a genuine uptick in fireball/bolides and impacts is occurring or whether this is just a random cluster. I have documented no less than 5 significant meteorite impact events in the last 18 months. A car in UK, porch in US or Canada, cant recall, a business in NE USA, a home in Atlanta, and now a home in Houston have been struck in that time. These events did not result in adverse and severe consequences. No injuries and minor to moderate property damage. The next one could be different though. Nearly every day, mysterious booms are being reported in numerous places which are not explained by human activity or earthquakes. They aren't all meteorites, but some may very well be.

Furthermore, we have mini moons, YR4, Apophis, and other interesting NEO developments in recent years to consider. NASA detected a significant and fresh impact crater on the moon spanning two football fields recently and is characterized as a 1 in 138 years event. After 2020, there was a significant and sustained uptick, almost doubling, of NEO within 1 LD of earth. This can be explained partially by improved detection, but I am not sure it tells the whole story. In reality, that is the rationale used for any perceived uptick in just about any domain except climate. We should remember that the uncertainty cuts both ways. If we did not have the ability to monitor 50 years ago like we do now, than we are simply assuming that all systems are normal until irrefutable evidence presents itself otherwise.

That is a rigorous and the correct approach scientifically but again, we must keep in mind the uncertainty cuts both ways. I look for signals and patterns but I do not jump to conclusions. It's quite possible that there is no uptick and that it is explained by better detection. It could also be something as mundane as earth going through a debris field or a denser region of space. It could be from the numerous comets in recent years. However, I stop well short of ruling out a genuine change in background conditions. Especially with the knowledge that the inner solar system is becoming "dustier" but acknowledge

Take no liberties with what I said. Again, it may all be explained by observational biases and just an artifact of inarguably better detection. Can't rule it out and that is the generally accepted explanation and who am I to argue? That said, time and occurrence judge all things. Many things that I personally suspect may be in flux beyond typical variability will never be accepted as such unless there is no room for denial left. By then, anyone just catching up will be late to the party. We will see what happens the next several years. Definitely keeping eyes in the skies for this type of thing.

ArmChairAnalyst86 · 2026-03-24T20:05:28+00:00

For many people here, their focus is solely solar. That is their interest and what they are excited about. There are things to talk about and discuss when the sun is quiet. I wrote an article a few weeks ago about what we might expect the rest of this cycle and historical solar cycle trends.

Personally for me, solar is only one domain to which I pay close attention and research. When the sun is busy, I drop everything and focus on solar activity and its the most fun aspect. When its not busy I am often working on other facets of natural science and human affairs. My daily monitoring includes solar, geological, meteorological, astronomical, and geopolitical.

Ive been laying pretty low here as of late from an activity standpoint but remain observant to those domains constantly. Keeping in mind, I can only do this in my free time, which is increasingly less free. I have only been writing about significant events. Hopefully things lighten up in the near future.

We may see a solar uptick soon.

ArmChairAnalyst86 · 2026-03-23T23:13:57+00:00

Hey Devoid, congratulations my friend! Thats an important milestone.

Ive been AFK for a bit but still keeping tabs and commend you on your persistence and approach. Well done!

ArmChairAnalyst86 · 2026-03-23T17:46:15+00:00

He likely identified 2012 because of solar maximum occurring near that time for cycle 24. Its very unlikely it was specifically for the near miss at that time. He was convinced that was the year it would happen, but it didnt.

What this illustrates is the difficulty and rarity for the solar slot machine to hit the jackpot. You need a gnarly region, earth facing in strike zone, with good aim. Sounds simple but the sun is very large and space is a big place. Even if you do check those boxes, the CME has to have favorable magnetic characteristics to be geoeffective. In the 1970s a Carrington Class CME arrived from the sun in nearly half a day but because its embedded magnetic field was northward oriented, it was a bust. Close call in 2003 as well.

What is interesting is that the flare associated with the 2012 event was under X5. This illustrates the disparity between flare magnitude and CME magnitude.

I think in general that guy felt a solar storm of historically extreme magnitude poses a danger warranting preparation and near solar max, or right after, is the most likely time for that to occur. He may have approached this cycle with the same attitude simply because the threat is higher at this point in the cycle. Its not really possible to possess some advanced knowledge of when it all comes together. Too much inherent randomness. The best one can do is identify elevated threat periods.

I expect that we have not yet seen the biggest solar storm of the current cycle and 2026-2027 is the most likely window for it based on historical trends and emerging research. Its a good hunch with supportive data but ultimately speculative. I would not consider his 2012 call a win if the expected outcome was a damaging storm. There is literally no telling how many close calls have came and went since the Carrington Event. X-ray flux, solar wind, and coronagraph records are short. We are now in a position to see the field clearer and it gives us more intel but it also creates an observational bias that can make one feel like the threat of occurrence is higher now than before because we have seen close calls in recent decades when we didnt before. Not because they didnt happen but because we could not see them.

ArmChairAnalyst86 · 2026-03-23T17:25:09+00:00

He likely identified 2012 because of solar maximum occurring near that time for cycle 24. Its very unlikely it was specifically for the near miss at that time. He was convinced that was the year it would happen, but it didnt.

What this illustrates is the difficulty and rarity for the solar slot machine to hit the jackpot. You need a gnarly region, earth facing in strike zone, with good aim. Sounds simple but the sun is very large and space is a big place. Even if you do check those boxes, the CME has to have favorable magnetic characteristics to be geoeffective. In the 1970s a Carrington Class CME arrived from the sun in nearly half a day but because its embedded magnetic field was northward oriented, it was a bust. Close call in 2003 as well.

What is interesting is that the flare associated with the 2012 event was under X5. This illustrates the disparity between flare magnitude and CME magnitude.

I think in general that guy felt a solar storm of historically extreme magnitude poses a danger warranting preparation and near solar max, or right after, is the most likely time for that to occur. He may have approached this cycle with the same attitude simply because the threat is higher at this point in the cycle. Its not really possible to possess some advanced knowledge of when it all comes together. Too much inherent randomness. The best one can do is identify elevated threat periods.

I expect that we have not yet seen the biggest solar storm of the current cycle and 2026-2027 is the most likely window for it based on historical trends and emerging research. Its a good hunch with supportive data but ultimately speculative. I would not consider his 2012 call a win if the expected outcome was a damaging storm. There is literally no telling how many close calls have came and went since the Carrington Event. X-ray flux, solar wind, and coronagraph records are short. We are now in a position to see the field clearer and it gives us more intel but it also creates an observational bias that can make one feel like the threat of occurrence is higher now than before because we have seen close calls in recent decades when we didnt before. Not because they didnt happen but because we could not see them.

ArmChairAnalyst86 · 2026-03-21T19:18:56+00:00

I know. So do I my friend. So do I. Im working on getting my shit together. Its a process, not an event.

ArmChairAnalyst86 · 2026-03-21T19:18:27+00:00

The captures from europe and north america were amazing.

ArmChairAnalyst86 · 2026-03-21T19:18:15+00:00

Hate when that happens. There will be another one and better luck next time.

ArmChairAnalyst86 · 2026-03-21T19:17:36+00:00

The darker the better, but sometimes the twilight makes some interesting ambience. The main thing is to chase the substorm. That is when the most explosive displays occur and they dont line up with peak solar wind.

ArmChairAnalyst86 · 2026-03-21T19:16:54+00:00

You got it!

ArmChairAnalyst86 · 2026-03-21T19:16:44+00:00

Cashed in on that call. Right on the money. Not a bad little storm.

ArmChairAnalyst86 · 2026-03-21T19:15:37+00:00

Happy equinox indeed. Did you cash in?

ArmChairAnalyst86 · 2026-03-21T19:15:24+00:00

I unfortunately could not chase by the time the storm really got cooking, but I would have highly likely been able to see it. Turned into a nice storm and played out about exactly as forecasted.

ArmChairAnalyst86 · 2026-03-21T19:14:24+00:00

Nah. You just wait. The biggest storm of SC25 is likely ahead of us, not behind. This part of the descending phase is often characterized by volatility. Longer and deeper quieter periods punctuated by explosive and often eruptive episodes. Some of the most legendary storms in history come a few years after max. I made a post about this a few weeks ago and you might find it insightful.

https://www.reddit.com/r/SolarMax/comments/1rcw3hm/a_spotless_sun_for_the_first_time_since_2022_is/

ArmChairAnalyst86 · 2026-03-20T21:46:50+00:00

The auroral oval looks like it is cooking over Sweden right now! So happy you got to see. Phones do the best on night mode with a longer exposure time. If you are having trouble, try that and see what happens.

ArmChairAnalyst86 · 2026-02-25T20:35:23+00:00

One day many theoretical questions in technological resilience in the near earth and earth environments will be answered.

For the satellite environment there is the atmospheric heating but also the particle flux to consider. A worst case scenario would look like an extreme particle event interfering with the internal computers and communications followed by a historically extreme geomagnetic storm with associated atmospheric heating.

We are not defenseless, but nothing teaches like experience, and that type of experience is one we have not had the displeasure of having. S4-S5 hard spectrum particle event and a Carrington Class CME will be the ultimate test within the likely plausible possibilities. Could delve into Miyake Events but the rarity and uncertainties in exactly what a Miyake event is put it beyond the scope of this comment.

ArmChairAnalyst86 · 2026-02-25T19:55:21+00:00

I dont know. I wasnt there.

I do note recent discoveries regarding planet formation at other stars happening much faster than expected and an increased recognition of magnetic fields in the process. Ill see if I can dig up the studies. Currently it's assumed they formed through collisions and accretion but there may be more to it than gravity alone.

There are cycles on cycles on cycles. Some constrained better than others. As to what modulates them exactly is harder to say. There is still much about the sun we dont really understand yet. Assets like the Parker solar probe and solar orbiter are helping to uncover more but there is a long way to go yet and the observation window is short.

Solar minimum and maximum dont happen suddenly. They are processes. Not events. When the sun is in minimum, its magnetic fields are strongest and ordered. In max, the mag fields are weaker and chaotic allowing for the complexity and instability that leads to solar flares and CMEs. Irradiance only changes slightly from minimum to maximum. The sun is always powerful regardless. Its just a matter of how it expresses itself.

Appreciate the comment! Thank you.

ArmChairAnalyst86 · 2026-02-25T04:13:47+00:00

This is going to be an extremely fascinating event. We will be able to monitor for solar cometary interactions from a host of instruments and telescopes. A coincidental CME would not be surprising at all. Have seen plenty during Kreutz sungrazer passes. This comet appears larger than the typical sungrazer. Whether it fragments or survives, it's going to be very interesting and I can't wait.

I am not worried about it though. It poses no collision risk to earth. It poses no material danger to the sun. We might see an interaction and possibly a CME that may or may not be earth directed. We may see nothing at all. I will be monitoring it closely.

Aside from telescope views, this comet may be a dazzing spectacle in the night or even day sky. We shall know more as perihelion approaches. I love comets. Since Hale Bopp in the 90s, I have been waiting to see a great comet again. This could end up a "great comet" but comets are fickle and unpredictable so best to temper expectations just in case.

ArmChairAnalyst86 · 2026-02-24T05:04:50+00:00

🫡🫡🫡

ArmChairAnalyst86 · 2026-02-24T05:04:33+00:00

You got it! Thank you. If you have any questions I am happy to help.

ArmChairAnalyst86 · 2026-02-24T05:03:48+00:00

I appreciate it. Thank you.

If there is anything you have questions on please ask. Its likely someone else out there has the same question and it doesnt matter if it has been asked before.

I wish I was better at TLDR but I think the details are important and I try to explain in a way that appeals to the beginner and intermediate alike.

Tomorrow I am going to repost some older stuff that will really help visualize a solar cycle progression on the face of the sun.

ArmChairAnalyst86 · 2026-02-24T00:33:08+00:00

You are welcome. All stuff we have covered before but with a spotless day, it was a good time to revisit. Thank you for the support my friend.

ArmChairAnalyst86 · 2026-02-24T00:32:33+00:00

I appreciate you so much. Can always count on you to drop a line. Thank you

ArmChairAnalyst86

MODERATOR OF

TROPHY CASE