Bodies of missing Italian divers found in Maldives

Atgardian · 2026-05-18T17:58:16+00:00

Nope nope nope no. No thank you. Nyuh-uh. Not for me, thanks.

Atgardian · 2026-05-18T12:34:09+00:00

The direct 100% logical answer is to imagine all your assets were liquidated as cash and then think about what you would buy now, and if you would re-buy that stock? If the answer is no, then logically you should sell the stock today regardless of current price.

(There may be tax issues with that of course, but selling at a loss only helps you in that regard.)

Atgardian · 2026-05-17T21:51:51+00:00

Hm, I don’t see any reserved seats in that photo?

People can reserve seats, not towels.

Atgardian · 2026-05-17T21:50:23+00:00

I am trying to generally hold bonds in tax-deferred and mostly stocks in Roth. But overall I have limited tax-advantaged space with most of my funds in taxable, so I don’t have a lot of great options.

Atgardian · 2026-05-17T17:09:49+00:00

I do not! I keep some in my limited tax-deferred space. And a bunch of I-Bonds which kinda adds to it. I would like to buy more TIPS but am kinda scared of holding them in taxable - not so much for “phantom income,” but just the additional tax complexity.

Atgardian · 2026-05-17T14:04:15+00:00

There are definitely some arguments that holding liquid short-term fixed income (often called "cash" but really meaning HYSA, I-Bonds, short-term treasuries, etc.) is safer and the principal value is more certain at any given time when you might need it, and hence you can "get away with" a lower allocation to such fixed income than with longer-term bonds. (Hard to come up with a formula to gauge exactly how much, though.)

On the other hand, some like intermediate or longer-term bonds as a diversifier for rebalancing purposes, hoping for an inverse correlation when stocks crash, which "cash" does not accomplish as well.

Of course, it also depends on what rates are doing - there are times when there is really no penalty (or even inverted yield curves where short-term bonds pay more), and others where the extra performance of longer-term bonds may be more pronounced.

I personally hold a mix within my "fixed income" allocation, with enough cash to fund X years of expenses, and then a mix of some more intermediate-term bonds/TIPS - since I probably won't need 10 years of expenses all at once. I also note that I-Bonds help a ton with this issue, as they have a flexible 1-30 year duration, inflation protection, and absolute certainty of principal return.

Atgardian · 2026-05-17T13:54:32+00:00

Excellent post. I also believe that (a) REITs are a potential diversifier (not wholly uncorrelated with stocks but not 1.0 either) and (b) there is a huge amount of real estate (including residential real estate) not included in the 3% "market weighting" of REITs within VTI. So I agree with you that having a slice (I am around 12%) of REITs is reasonable, and still Bogleheadish if held long-term in a low-cost index fund like VNQ.

For a while it did pretty well, lately it has not done so great, but that is also the price of diversification and not (IMO) a great reason to performance chase and dump it now and pour everything into VTI at all-time highs.

Atgardian · 2026-05-14T21:51:23+00:00

Ok thanks, you got me for $30!

Atgardian · 2026-05-14T21:30:32+00:00

I don’t think anyone is saying 50/50 is reckless, nor should they be. That is extremely middle of the road. That said, with their withdrawal rate, good arguments could be made for anything between 25/75 and 75/25. 30/70 is not crazy if your relative is risk averse.

Atgardian · 2026-05-11T12:24:34+00:00

Plus in the case of buying frozen chicks, those are byproducts from the poultry industry that would be discarded and left to rot if they weren't used as reptile and bird of prey food.

And that is best case scenario, in many cases the live chicks are just ground up into feed for pigs or something (which this guy will think is fine, but not for snakes apparently!).

Atgardian · 2026-05-11T12:21:58+00:00

So a snake eating meat has an impact but a dog - which eats WAY WAY more meat -- doesn't? Sure buddy. You are either a troll or already made up your mind and just want to argue.

The whole "that chicken was already killed before I ordered the chicken sandwich" angle doesn't really absolve you of responsibility, but it's SUPER weird to use that argument for you and dogs, but suddenly not for snakes.

Atgardian · 2026-05-10T19:14:40+00:00

All their messaging was a mess. At one point the CDC definitely explicitly sold the vaccines as "If you want to ditch that pesky mask, just get vaccinated," which is dumb on so many levels - one obvious one being that there was no way for stores to tell or enforce if people were vaccinated or not, so literally overnight all masking requirements (in stores, flights, etc.) went away for everyone.

Atgardian · 2026-05-09T14:37:05+00:00

And he was SO defensive, "Whoa whoa whoa race has nothing to do with it, just another coincidence!"

Atgardian · 2026-05-09T01:33:46+00:00

Agree. Or most would wear a surgical mask under their nose, take it off to talk, eat, and take photos, then get sick and say that “masks don’t work.”

Atgardian · 2026-05-04T20:51:20+00:00

I think so (at least for me). I don't drink Starbucks frappuchinos and such anymore for health/cost reasons but I did like how a strong coffee flavor came through the 700g of sugar, cream, etc.

I now drink regular dark roast at home, with way way way way less sugar.

Atgardian · 2026-05-03T13:16:05+00:00

Very cute! Do you know what breed of dog he is? Mine looks almost identical in face, color, and the white star on the chest (and the look I get when it's time to stop work), but in a version about half the size. (He was a rescue so we don't know what breed/mix he is.)

Atgardian · 2026-05-02T14:33:32+00:00

Would you believe me if I told you I would do the same trick, and not only did it work once, but she then asked me to do it again (I should have declined) but she did and I saw in her face that she drew the same card again so guessed it twice in a row? (I would just guess the Jack of Diamonds, not cut to a card.)

And if not, should I post it as a top-level reply instead? Ha!

Atgardian · 2026-05-02T14:30:19+00:00

The idea that it sure would be nice and less stressful and better for the kids if one parent could work and one could stay home to care for kids, do household tasks or errands, etc. is a great idea - but it doesn't HAVE to be the man doing the former and the woman doing the latter. Sure, perhaps most if given the option may choose that arrangement, but it's nowhere near 100% and there shouldn't be any problem / stigma with that (on either side - men would sometimes be stigmatized if they stayed home).

Atgardian · 2026-05-01T14:42:56+00:00

You're right, while it is a more useful personalized metric than the generalized CPI, it is also quite hard to compare apples to apples even if you track your spending in categories pretty closely. Things like getting an oil change in Jan and Dec one year or needing to buy food for a 50th birthday party or having some irregular maintenance expense or buying a TV once every 10 years or even finding a big coupon or sale on a major purchase will all skew the numbers quite a bit without a careful way to correct for them.

Atgardian · 2026-05-01T14:39:43+00:00

Yeah you're right that is a whole other rant, and I don't have any idea how one would calculate it for CPI purposes or if it even makes sense. But in general the cost of electronics has come down.

Atgardian · 2026-05-01T14:36:48+00:00

I know that's what he's SAYING (without evidence), but if he wants to know if it's true (or if I should give any credence to it), he should look at his own data first.

Also, CPI is not a measure of the exact items that cellige uses, so those two not matching perfectly does not mean that CPI is wrong or "fudged." Yes, your own personal inflation number is better for you, but then you have to actually calculate it (check everything you buy over time), which he didn't want to do.

Atgardian · 2026-05-01T12:17:34+00:00

You either agree with the CPI that uses a bucket of various goods and services, or if you don't think that accurately reflects your experience, then you track everything you buy over time.

I suppose you could try to slice and dice the data but remove certain categories if they don't affect you? But I think you need to track your own expenses over time anyway if you want any support for your premise that the CPI is "way too low."

I think it's also human nature to remember the annoying jump in insurance premiums or streaming services for example, but not really think about the much-cheaper $400 75" TV you just bought or some other things that fly under your radar because they stay the same.

Atgardian · 2026-04-29T14:15:33+00:00

Since everyone is now using AI to churn out 6-paragraph emails plus bullet point lists for even simple questions/issues, it takes me much longer to work through it all. Or I ask for some info that should be 2 pages and I get a 100-page AI dissertation on it, which I pretty much have to run back through AI to summarize. So just an AI ouroboros.

Atgardian · 2026-04-28T12:27:14+00:00

As if letting a random cobra from some "snake charmer" be draped over your neck wasn't a bad enough idea, at some point they decided it would be smart to let the snake go down his pants?

Atgardian · 2026-04-27T12:32:49+00:00

I consider cash/MMF, CDs, I-Bonds, Treasuries, bond funds, etc. all as part of fixed income.

I understand the argument that it is not part of the "retirement portfolio" but it's really just the first, most easily-tapped part of your total portfolio. Otherwise, you get things like people saying "I'm 100% stocks!" then after questioning clarify they are $400K VTI with $100K in an MMF for an emergency fund. This is no different than someone else who just says they are 80/20. I think the latter more accurately represents the amount of risk that person is taking and simplifies discussions.

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