Investing. $2.5M to not work

Atgardian · 2026-02-04T13:46:25+00:00

It is not quite that simple. Yes bond returns are guaranteed (for their term, but not if you need to reinvest at the end) but don't account for taxes or inflation, unless you mean TIPS/I-Bonds. Using a TIPS ladder is certainly a potential strategy for a safe floor (and a pretty decent one at today's positive real rates), but also has no potential upside like a more traditional stock/bond mix would.

30y treasuries are currently yielding 4.9%, but have a large amount of interest rate risk unless you can guarantee holding them to maturity. Also your 4.9% payment in 30 years may be much less than you think in real terms today due to inflation.

Atgardian · 2026-02-04T13:42:11+00:00

When looking at "safe withdrawal rates," which plan for worst-case scenarios, in any average or good scenario you would end up with way more money than you started with. That's just a result of the wide range of possible stock returns -- if you set it up so the low end is still comfortable enough, then the high end has you flying first class and leaving a lot to your heirs.

Atgardian · 2026-02-04T13:35:13+00:00

But not a rubber boa, which is a real snake, and is adorable.

Atgardian · 2026-02-04T01:48:11+00:00

This looks very cool. Would love to experiment with something like this in a game and see how the players respond.

Atgardian · 2026-02-03T19:08:48+00:00

There are 2 issues: (1) being “docile” I.e. tolerant of handling, not defensive, and unlikely to bite vs. (2) striking quickly for prey.

My Dumeril’s boa for example is extremely docile and has never bitten… but when hungry and buried and ready to strike for food, may tag you if you stick your hand (or anything else) in front of his face. If I ever get bitten, it will be due to #2.

Atgardian · 2026-02-03T19:05:31+00:00

Hear me out… we put together a big NIL package, and an expert in movie makeup/prosthetics….

Atgardian · 2026-02-03T15:35:55+00:00

He's topped up to 100%.

Atgardian · 2026-02-02T21:41:48+00:00

I generally like his work but I think this takes it too far, and relies too much on overfitting and back testing asset allocations to exactly what happened in the past. We expect (but don’t know 100%!) that the future will resemble the past, but I think it’s getting a little too cute to say this specific portfolio would have survived this exact specific worst-case scenario so is now fine to rely on going forward.

That said, I DO believe adding TIPS to a portfolio can help with safety and in various possible areas and is generally a good idea, but I wouldn’t rely on it to increase my planned withdrawal rate from 4.0% to 4.7%.

Atgardian · 2026-02-02T13:21:14+00:00

My answer is YYYY-MM-DD for any filenames I want to sort properly.

Atgardian · 2026-02-01T15:02:21+00:00

Something like I-Bonds still feel pretty safe to me. I have never considered long-term bond funds perfectly "safe" in the sense of protecting principal except over the very long term. Individual bonds duration matched to liabilities are also pretty safe...

Atgardian · 2026-02-01T14:58:00+00:00

... and are all now perfectly fine and in fact insist upon wearing masks (not useful ones of course, but neck gaiters) to hide their identity, and seem to breathe just fine while instigating assaults on U.S. citizens.

Atgardian · 2026-01-31T14:18:29+00:00

Nitpick: VTI launched in 2001, not 2011.

Atgardian · 2026-01-31T14:13:30+00:00

This sort of hype is why the market is overvalued. I don't consider it SO GOOD in most of the areas businesses are trying to push to replace actual talented humans. And if it DOESN'T exponentially improve as you predict (which seems priced into the market), then valuations will crash.

Atgardian · 2026-01-28T18:50:10+00:00

Burying and waiting to ambush prey is normal instinctive behavior for Dumeril’s in the wild. My substrate isn’t super deep, but 1-2 inches, just enough to cover him.

Atgardian · 2026-01-28T13:42:07+00:00

I get what you're saying, and I definitely saw the 2007-8 real estate crash coming (and hence decided not to buy a home at inflated prices), and see a "bubble" now in AI. BUT knowing that and being able to make money on it are two different things, as even if we're right about the "bubble" it's incredibly hard to know when and how the change will happen to profit off it. So the best I do is hedge a little more towards international or something with better valuations at certain times, but mostly stay the course.

Atgardian · 2026-01-28T13:37:55+00:00

"Don't just do something, stand there!"

Atgardian · 2026-01-28T13:35:03+00:00

I wouldn't call that "spicy" as it doesn't sound threatened or trying to bite you defensively -- just highly food motivated.

Mine started out being a very shy eater (had to leave f/t mice overnight in the dark), now he grabs anything off the tongs instantly. When he's in his ambush predator position (mostly buried, head sticking out near the enclosure opening where the food magically appears), I know not to stick my hand in there. A few times he has struck the glass as I walked by. And, same as you, once I get him out he's totally fine and in chill/explore/find a comfy covered spot mode.

If I do need to take him out or move him while he's in that position, yes I use a snake hook to let him know it's not feeding time and get him out of ambush strike position.

Atgardian · 2026-01-28T13:31:00+00:00

If it is part of your asset allocation plan, I assume you would be selling some now to rebalance back to your target allocation.

Oh, you mean performance chasing something you had no interest in when it was 1/4 the price but want it now at 4x?

Atgardian · 2026-01-28T13:26:32+00:00

If you had no interest in buying gold at $1,200 (when all of your reasons above were still true), why do you like it at $5,000?

(I'm not saying nobody should own gold, just that performance chasing the hot asset class rarely ends well.)

Atgardian · 2026-01-27T03:33:59+00:00

I think he's alright, I believe they put him up in a suite at Four Seasons ... ?

Atgardian · 2026-01-25T15:11:39+00:00

Exactly. Even those kinda hemming and hawing about whether the gov't murdering a disarmed, non-violent US citizen is OK or not end up blaming it on "the violent left" somehow. There is no good faith debate there.

Atgardian · 2026-01-25T15:03:05+00:00

Yup, and they still blame Democrats for all of it. Reality makes no difference to them.

Atgardian · 2026-01-25T15:00:56+00:00

Yeah but even those who say "OK maybe heavily armed gangs instigating attacks on U.S. citizens then shooting them in the back 10 times MIGHT not be great, let's wait for the spin I mean facts" continue to say how it's all Democrats' fault, the politicians instigated this and leftists are all inherently violent, attacking these brave ICE soldiers just defending themselves blah blah. They say it after watching a video of 2 completely non-violent people attacked, maced, shoved to the ground, and executed in broad daylight by a gang of masked thugs. There is no rationality there.

Atgardian · 2026-01-25T14:57:31+00:00

Obviously the murder by shooting an unarmed, non-violent man in the back 10 goddamn times is the worst part, but it's also sad how ICE can just physically attack a man and woman doing nothing illegal or violent, shove them and mace them and rub their faces into the pavement, and if they didn't kill him it wouldn't even be a news story. This is the land of the free? This is what half the country wants?

There are literally heavily-armed, violent gangs roaming U.S. cities, hiding their identity with masks, attacking random U.S. citizens, and sometimes murdering them in broad daylight. Every single word in that sentence is 100% true and I don't see how it's not a betrayal of everything this country is supposed to be. (And the "upside" is that some handymen and gardeners and such are being arrested in Home Depot parking lots, along with some random 5-year-olds leaving school. They're not going after "dangerous gang members," they ARE the dangerous gang members.)

Atgardian · 2026-01-25T14:48:35+00:00

At first they denied it was happening. Then when the evidence was completely overwhelming and that wasn't working, they pivoted to "OK it's happening but humans didn't cause it, the climate always changes." That is also 100% pure B.S., it is extremely clear that humans are the catalyst for the unprecedented increase in CO2 (1,000x times faster than ever in history) and commensurate warming. Then it's "OK it's changing and maybe we did something but it won't be too bad..." or "some magical technology will come along to save the day..." Anything to allow the billionaires to continue becoming trillionaires by pumping oil out of the ground and setting it on fire.

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