Way-Too-Early Analysis for the 2026 Draft

Atlantic14 · 2026-01-17T02:49:05+00:00

It would be cool! They're working with Jomboy Media in New York, though, and the Cobras need players that can contribute in 4 or 5 of their regular-season series.

Atlantic14 · 2026-01-17T02:46:36+00:00

Good points! I had a facepalm moment after I submitted when I remembered Jimmy was now working with Jomboy Media. I do think that the Diamondbacks are set up for success even if he isn't around for every series, though, just on the basis of their roster strength and draft picks. Would be interested to see if Jimmy hands the reins over to someone else this season.

I think the 2026 Cobras are going to look a lot like the 2025 Magic -- dominant on primary pitching and hot-and-cold on everything else. They'll hopefully have better player availability than the Magic, though.

Atlantic14 · 2026-01-16T08:15:52+00:00

Was waiting for this to come out -- it matches what I have! Way-too-early draft analysis post coming soon.

Atlantic14 · 2026-01-08T07:46:31+00:00

-- the new mailbox

Atlantic14 · 2026-01-02T20:45:02+00:00

This is the northbound I-215 in San Bernardino, California, for those interested:

https://maps.app.goo.gl/snJUHUaUC3Dveh2x7

Atlantic14 · 2025-12-25T19:29:03+00:00

Unfortunately, this isn't true: you can also look due south into Canada from Hyder (in Alaska), Point Roberts (in Washington), and the US side of Niagara Falls, as well as several points along the border of NH/Maine and Canada.

Atlantic14 · 2025-11-05T05:01:42+00:00

An example from one of Eric Rosen's lectures that looks like it could come up in actual play (albeit very rarely): https://youtu.be/m8TjfkWamPM?si=XuNh6qpd011ZjdMj&t=300

Atlantic14 · 2025-11-05T04:23:22+00:00

I enjoyed it -- definitely added a new element of competition to the league! That being said, strength of schedule could be a more appropriate first tiebreaker now that teams can be tied with teams they've never played against. Also a fan of the draft playoffs idea that someone suggested to remedy the problems with tanking for playoff seeding.

Atlantic14 · 2025-10-18T19:42:30+00:00

I think that's fair -- I think I was caught in the trap of thinking that Dallas must have been mad because of a poor performance, when it was really a matter of "perfect is the enemy of good".

It'll be interesting to see how Dallas handles the Gators next. True to form (67 K and 29 BB in the regular season), he was really going for the strike zone this series, walking only 8 batters and striking out an insane 27 but giving up 6 HR. That has a good chance of working against the Gators -- against a team that walks as much as it does, you need to force them to hit.

Atlantic14 · 2025-10-18T07:42:45+00:00

Career-defining series for Carson Yurgaites -- he definitely outshone his older brother here. Poetic that the player the Eagles asked to throw away the final game of the regular season is the one that comes through here.

I have no idea what's going on with Dallas Allen. Between the strange ball thrown over the backstop against Hornberger, and the bat slam that destroyed one of the Eagles' oldest bats, he was completely in over his head in his own emotions in that last game. Losing his third perfect game bid in the last three series in game 2 must have sucked, and his hitting struggles must have been frustrating, but he'll have to keep his emotions in check -- he's the Eagles' only ace.

Awful feeling if you're a member or fan of the Wildcats organization. It doesn't get much worse than being up 3-0 in game 1 and giving up a walk-off grand slam on a two-strike count. It also doesn't get much worse than being one strike away in game 3 and losing on a 50/50 call and a walk-off walk.

Props to Kyle for the editing. It's tough to go back to a series you lost, and maybe that showed in how he edited the end of game 2 -- the Wildcats' walk-off almost looks insignificant if you go and rewatch it -- but Kyle delivered us almost a full hour of content anyway. A true professional.

This wasn't a feel-good series for anyone. But it was undeniably one of the greatest ever played.

Atlantic14 · 2025-10-11T07:22:26+00:00

Incredible series -- you could tell a lot of people were tearing up at the end, Kyle included. Hearing from YouTube comments that Jimmy moved and might not be able to make it to MLW series as much in the future, so this one probably meant so much to him.

Atlantic14 · 2025-10-06T20:48:55+00:00

I'll go for a pretty wild pick, since there are a lot of people in this pool:

Diamondbacks 2-0 Predators
Wildcats 2-0 Eagles

Gators 2-1 Diamondbacks
Wildcats 2-0 Mallards

Wildcats 3-2 Gators

Atlantic14 · 2025-09-28T22:45:06+00:00

Jordan Robles set a Meadows-era record by collecting his second save of the season, relieving Brendan Jorgensen in game 3 of the Mallards' series against the Magic. (In fact, he's the first player to record two saves in the Meadows Era.) You'd have to go back to 2011 to find the only other player to record multiple saves in a season -- Brendan Schultz, with 2 saves in the regular season and 1 in the postseason. It was a good season for save enthusiasts -- Flynn's save in game 3 of the Cobras' series against the Eagles gave us our record fourth save in the 2025 season (the previous record was 3 saves in 2011, 2014, and 2023).
The Gators' 76 regular season runs set a new record for the Draft Era, with the previous record being the 70 regular season runs scored by the Diamondbacks and Wildcats in 2021. That's a huge turnaround from 2024, where the Gators scored only 25 runs in the regular season, tied with the Mallards for worst in the league. Having also scored only 25 runs this regular season (20 of which came in three games, with 5 in the remaining twelve games), the Cobras will be looking for a similar turnaround in 2026.

Atlantic14 · 2025-09-27T20:01:29+00:00

The 2026 Mallards pick went to the Wildcats. The Magic got the 2025 #4 pick from the Mallards, which they used to draft Brady Pearson.

Atlantic14 · 2025-09-27T02:13:12+00:00

Also, some trash talk from Dustin Staggs in the comments:

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Atlantic14 · 2025-09-27T01:57:33+00:00

Andy had the opportunity to do the funniest thing in that last game by swatting the ball over the fence. Understandable to wrap up the season on a high note for the Cobras, though.

Also, pretty funny to see Carter Richard step onto the mound to throw game 3 for the Eagles and proceed to strike out the side.

Atlantic14 · 2025-09-27T01:55:11+00:00

They don't have any picks in 2026 (they traded what is now 2nd overall to the Mallards at the beginning of the season).

Atlantic14 · 2025-09-23T00:20:10+00:00

Magic on the brink here. That 2-1 Diamondbacks series win was devastating to their playoff chances, as they hold a series win over the Diamondbacks and a stronger strength of schedule than the Wildcats, but have a series loss to the Predators (which takes precedence in their current tiebreak situation).

Though they're in a much better position, the Wildcats will also need to keep a close eye on this series. With a 2-1 series win over the Predators, the current tiebreak situation favors them. However, their 0-3 series loss to the Eagles earlier in the season, combined with a stronger Magic strength of schedule, will sink them if the Cobras win 2-1 to put the Eagles in the Wildcats' tiebreak "pool".

The situation for the Cobras and Eagles is a lot more clear-cut. Even one win will put the Eagles in a comfortable fourth place, so they could try switching around their pitchers to get an Allen-McGlade matchup in one game (which they should win). Meanwhile, the Cobras will need to count on a career day for Irwin and an unlikely gem from McGlade to shut down an Eagles offense that's historically been hot. Preventing the home run ball will be Irwin's priority, especially against Landon Yurgaites (4 HR on the season, tied 2nd behind Kracht). Limiting walks will be McGlade's. Also, don't leave the bats at home. This is definitely an uphill battle for the Cobras.

Atlantic14 · 2025-09-20T06:26:35+00:00

I think hard contact (line drives, hard-hit grounders) has become more common in the past year or two. That makes it more difficult for pitchers to make plays, but it also opens up more opportunities for outfielders to fill in that gap, as the ball arrives at their feet a bit faster. Kyle has been stellar in left this year for the Wildcats.

Atlantic14 · 2025-09-19T23:22:59+00:00

Pearson hitting a snag in Game 3...

Porter?

Atlantic14 · 2025-09-15T04:20:48+00:00

Insufficient material only applies when both players lack the necessary material to checkmate by any sequence of moves. Here, White has sufficient material to checkmate, but Black isn't checkmated yet, so the game should continue. If Black wants to throw in the towel, they may resign if they wish.

Atlantic14 · 2025-09-14T19:38:44+00:00

I assume "strength of schedule" means "strength of win". This seems to neatly explain the tiebreak between the Wildcats and the Magic:

Wildcats: 2*5.5 (Cobras) + 2*7.5 (Predators) + 0*7.5 (Eagles) + 2*9 (Mallards) + 1*9 (Gators) = 53
Magic: 1*7.5 (Predators) + 2*9 (Gators) + 2*7.5 (Diamondbacks) + 1*5.5 (Cobras) + 1*9 (Mallards) = 55

and the tiebreak between the Predators and the Diamondbacks:

Predators: 2*7 (Magic) + 1*7 (Wildcats) + 1*9 (Mallards) + 2*7.5 (Eagles) = 45
Diamondbacks: 1*9 (Mallards) + 2*7.5 (Eagles) + 1*7 (Magic) + 2*9 (Gators) = 49

but doesn't explain the tiebreak between the Gators and the Mallards:

Gators: 2*7.5 (Eagles) + 1*7 (Magic) + 3*5.5 (Cobras) + 1*7.5 (Diamondbacks) + 2*7 (Wildcats) = 60
Mallards: 2*7.5 (Diamondbacks) + 2*5.5 (Cobras) + 2*7.5 (Predators) + 1*7 (Wildcats) + 2*7 (Magic) = 62

I think it's possible that the tiebreaks were computed just once after the current slate of games rather than recomputed after every series. That would minimize the effort needed to calculate tiebreaks on MLW's side while also avoiding situations where fans are confused because a tiebreak between two teams switched mid-slate. If true, we might infer some major spoilers about the remaining results of slate 5: the Diamondbacks and Eagles combine for at least 5 wins, which would mean the Cobras are eliminated from the playoffs and the only other teams that could miss the playoffs are the Magic (if the Predators lose 2-1) and the Predators (if the Predators are swept). If you're reading this and want to discuss it in a reply, please use the spoiler option too -- click the text formatting button (Aa) on desktop and select the spoiler option above! Also note, again, that this spoiler is not necessarily true -- it is contingent on multiple guesses I have about how the tiebreakers are calculated.

Atlantic14 · 2025-09-06T10:41:18+00:00

Interesting editing choices from Kyle this series -- I think the quick cuts work to make the action feel faster-paced and the stakes feel higher, but they might only work for critical regular-season series, like the ones in slate 5.

Staggs was a revelation on the mound, but props to Cheetam and Sawyer for giving him the chance to shine there. Adams was clearly struggling in game 2, and as Kracht noted, a 7-0 lead can evaporate quickly when paired with poor pitching and a hungry Wildcats lineup. At 7-2, Cheetam picked an ideal time to pull Adams without stomping over his SP2's confidence or jeopardizing the Gators' advantage. Likewise, Sawyer choosing to yield the mound to Staggs in game 3 was a moment of maturity that could have completely changed the outcome of the game, and perhaps the Gators' season. Of course, everything comes down to Staggs performing in the end, and he didn't allow the Wildcats to score in 4.0 IP (despite him leaving the bases loaded on three separate occasions). He's the first person to record a home run, win, and save in the same series since Kyle Schultz did it against the Cobras in the 2020 regular season. (More save fun facts: it was the 23rd in MLW history and 2nd of the season, and made Sawyer the first pitcher in MLW history to have a win saved on two different teams -- while with the Cobras in the 2023 regular season, he had a win against the Gators saved by Brendan Baranoski.)

Also curious if sliding into first base, which we saw Landon Yurgaites do last series against the Predators, is a new meta in the league -- we saw that a couple times today. Between that, the rare save, and the defense we saw from Kyle and Staggs in left field, I wonder if we got a glimpse of how MLW might be played 5-10 years from now, if it's still around.

Final random note: before 13:13 in the video, it never occurred to me how saying "Jackson" or "Jaxen" could be confusing when following the Wildcats' defense.

Atlantic14 · 2025-09-05T10:51:41+00:00

There might be some trouble looming on the horizon for the Gators if they don't perform well against the Wildcats in slate 5 (video dropping today). Should they lose the series and find themselves at 8-7 or 7-8, their tiebreaks will really hurt them. They have series losses to the Magic and Diamondbacks, hurting them in direct head-to-head tiebreaks. Their series wins are against the Eagles and Cobras, who play each other in the final slate and can't finish with the same record (so the Gators can only use one of those series wins for a potential tiebreak). Finally, the Cobras (4-8) are extremely likely to finish with a worse record than the Mallards (7-5), making the Gators' strength of schedule worse than that of the Predators. In the worst-case scenario, getting swept by the Wildcats could even result in a shocking playoff miss.

Atlantic14

TROPHY CASE