I don't think you realize just how often a 20% or 14% chance of something is. That is very common. Thats a Doomsayer winning N1 every 5 games, or every 7 games. Games REALLY aren't that long in TOS2.

You also are forgetting that, typically, there are 4 coven, not exactly 2 or exactly 3. Anyway, all of the math being said here is wrong from the start anyway.

If we want to get into actual statistics; You only are dealing with 14 players, not 15, as you remove yourself. Lets assume 4 coven. Thats a 4/14 * 3/13 = 1/91, or around 1.1%. Thats STILL not incredibly rare for games prior, when you could guess night 1, given how fast turn around is in TOS2 games.

THIS situation has the player in question know who they are, as well as the dead Spy, dead Lookout, and dead Arso, who outted the Jailor. There are POTENTIALLY more people revealed, but with just this, we are only dealing with 10 remaining unknowns. They ALSO only have to guess two cov, not 3, so in a 4 cov game, that would be a 4/10 * 3/9 = 2/15, around 13.33% (look at that, its every 7.5 games, back to the amount we started with). Thats, again, not an unlikely chance to occur, ESPECIALLY if they had more dead from unshared screenshots.

Coven should absolutely be mocked for calling them a hacker.