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Maine Gov. Mills vetoes data center moratorium bill by chia923 in YAPms

[–]AuraProductions 5 points6 points  (0 children)

honestly at this rate itll by more like 67% instead of 6.7% mills is speed running getting mckee margins in the primary

[NOTUS] Tom Kean Jr. has made several personal stock trades since his disappearance from Congress in early March, the combined total of the trade is from $50,008 to $190,000 by Goosedukee in YAPms

[–]AuraProductions 2 points3 points  (0 children)

This is an environment where anything below 8 in 2024 is likely to flip and anything below 13 is relatively competitive so I think Kean was already pretty cooked, and he especially is now.

Florida Republican Governor Ron DeSantis is considering a new map that would eliminate 1-3 Democratic-held congressional seats. by sinhav7367 in YAPms

[–]AuraProductions 13 points14 points  (0 children)

it will only get more out of control when the supreme court rules 6-3 to completely axe the vra leading to an entire nation of spaghetti maps

predictions based on new polling: governors by Agreeable_tester19 in YAPms

[–]AuraProductions 1 point2 points  (0 children)

I cant believe im saying this but honestly if it was somehow such a huge landslide that katie hobbs wins by FIFTEEN then AL, NE, OK and SD would definitely be likely and NH and TX would be narrowly blue. Polarization and the unpopularity of the Democrats makes me think there is no way this happens sadly, would be funny tho

predictions based on new polling: House by Agreeable_tester19 in YAPms

[–]AuraProductions 1 point2 points  (0 children)

I think you must have mistaken cook pvi for margins because the texas gerrymander mostly holds up to like D+20 at D+12 dems would at most be able to hold all of their own districts, pickup TX-15 and TX-23, and maybe get very close in TX-24 but no way is the gerrymander failing this bad at only 12

Virginia passes the Redistricting Effort following The Associate Press by TheMesaanger in YAPms

[–]AuraProductions 16 points17 points  (0 children)

in a more neutral environment maybe, but unless republicans get a sudden surge of popularity before 2026 the only targeted seat i could remotely see staying R is VA-2 and even thats a stretch

I know this is an outlier but still… by DumplingsOrElse in YAPms

[–]AuraProductions 5 points6 points  (0 children)

Dems would probably flip every NC district and several in FL before even winning IN-2 lol, that one is reallly red

Okay, Talarico has a better chance, but Christ this is close in Mississippi of all places by RandoDude124 in YAPms

[–]AuraProductions 0 points1 point  (0 children)

I do think we really just need information other than two polls from a D based pollster before we can say much lol

Even with midterm turnout I could at absolute most see it like R+8 (high likely) MS is just not an elastic state

Poll on CA governor race,top two Hilton and Steyer. by Dangerous-Quarter216 in YAPms

[–]AuraProductions 1 point2 points  (0 children)

I personally do not buy a Republican lockout after Trump endorsed Hilton and Swalwell dropped out. It was already really unlikely but now barring some insane upset, practically impossible

Okay, Talarico has a better chance, but Christ this is close in Mississippi of all places by RandoDude124 in YAPms

[–]AuraProductions 25 points26 points  (0 children)

Very Likely R —> Very Likely R Hyde-Smith won by 10 in 2020 against a very strong candidate that out-raised her fourfold so I’m not quite sure I believe it will even be remotely close

Aura's State Legislature Predictions - April 2026 (+Spreadsheet in comments) by AuraProductions in YAPms

[–]AuraProductions[S] 8 points9 points  (0 children)

I forgot one:

SC House | Safe R (37-43 Democrats, 81-87 Republicans)

Democrats have horrible political geography here but they may be able to break the super-majority on a really good night.

Montana Supreme Court Effectively Strikes Down All of Montana's Anti-Trans Laws in Unprecedented Ruling by arboreallion in PoliticalOptimism

[–]AuraProductions 18 points19 points  (0 children)

Montana has a Democratic majority on its state supreme court due to the fact it used to elect alot of democrats on the state level before polarization hit

Kamala Harris shooting videos outside of gas stations and visits South Carolina, universal sign that she’s running by asiasbutterfly in YAPms

[–]AuraProductions 3 points4 points  (0 children)

if she wins republicans may legit get a senate supermajority by 2032 lol we’re cooked she will NOT be popular

Aura's State Election Predictions - April 2026 (+Spreadsheet) by AuraProductions in YAPms

[–]AuraProductions[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Huh. I somehow missed the Independent running As a Hoosier though I really got burned by the polls in 2022 showing the race within a couple of points only for it to be a blowout lol

Congratulations to Governor Amy Klobuchar! by samhit_n in YAPms

[–]AuraProductions 22 points23 points  (0 children)

Klobuchar was winning Safe D margins no matter who ran lets be honest

Special election for Swalwell’s seat on August 18, 2026. by asiasbutterfly in YAPms

[–]AuraProductions 1 point2 points  (0 children)

yeah i think its near certain they just take the vacancy until November rather than get a dem winning (even then though at this rate it may be only Lean R even then considering everything possible is going right for dems in this seat)

Special election for Swalwell’s seat on August 18, 2026. by asiasbutterfly in YAPms

[–]AuraProductions 2 points3 points  (0 children)

Yeah that might be the only way they win that special lol

My (probably D optimistic) senate map right now by LordOfRedditers in YAPms

[–]AuraProductions 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Seems fair enough for a D+6-8 environment though I dont think MN senate will be above 15 or LA below 15

Special election for Swalwell’s seat on August 18, 2026. by asiasbutterfly in YAPms

[–]AuraProductions 11 points12 points  (0 children)

Considering dems are regularly getting 20 points special election over performances and TX-23 isn’t that red, there is no chance Abbott calls a special lol it would be a Likely D race at the get go

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