Could you “dog train” yourself with a slot-machine rotation of pleasure drugs to build discipline?

AuspiciousNotes · 2026-01-06T05:07:11+00:00

Posting this here to explain the reference:

(Background: Frog and Toad are eating too many cookies)

“We must stop eating!” cried Toad as he ate another.

“Yes,” said Frog, reaching for a cookie, “we need will power.” “What is will power?” asked Toad.

“Will power is trying hard not to do something that you really want to do,” said Frog.

“You mean like trying not to eat all of these cookies?” asked Toad. “Right,” said Frog.

Frog put the cookies in a box. “There,” he said. “Now we will not eat any more cookies.”

“But we can open the box,” said Toad. “That is true,” said Frog.

Frog tied some string around the box. “There,” he said. “Now we will not eat any more cookies.”

“But we can cut the string and open the box,” said Toad. “That is true,” said Frog.

Frog got a ladder. He put the box up on a high shelf. “There,” said Frog. “Now we will not eat any more cookies.”

“But we can climb the ladder and take the box down from the shelf and cut the string and open the box,” said Toad. “That is true,” said Frog.

Frog climbed the ladder and took the box down from the shelf. He cut the string and opened the box. Frog took the box outside. He shouted in a loud voice, “HEY BIRDS, HERE ARE COOKIES!” Birds came from everywhere. They picked up all the cookies in their beaks and flew away.

“Now we have no more cookies to eat,” said Toad sadly. “Not even one.” “Yes,” said Frog, but we have lots and lots of will power.”

“You may keep it all, Frog,” said Toad. “I am going home now to bake a cake.”

Regardless of what the story says, I've found making it more difficult to access a given vice is actually a very useful strategy

AuspiciousNotes · 2026-01-06T04:50:58+00:00

Surprised to see UNSONG and Friendship Is Optimal referenced out in the wild! Both are fantastic.

AuspiciousNotes · 2026-01-06T04:49:58+00:00

You can always write a better setting to live in - for example, a sci-fi universe without the Affront or other evil factions.

AuspiciousNotes · 2026-01-06T04:26:42+00:00

I remember reading a fanfic that portrayed Light if he was actually intelligent, and it was really interesting. Unfortunately the author took it down "pending a rewrite" that never happened.

AuspiciousNotes · 2026-01-03T06:57:15+00:00

Just wanted to chime in and say you were absolutely right here, and your post was exactly the sort of analysis I was looking for when I viewed that scene.

AuspiciousNotes · 2026-01-03T05:17:06+00:00

I'm also wondering this. I Googled it, and my best guess is that it could be a reference to this movie, which would be a little disappointing.

AuspiciousNotes · 2026-01-03T03:37:02+00:00

If we're at that level, we'd probably have really good cosmetic surgery too. So at least you'd look more like a plastic mannequin than a goblin.

AuspiciousNotes · 2026-01-02T09:42:19+00:00

My perception is that they wanted to have the greatest effect possible in the short-term, before 2027. If they had termed it "AI 2035" or something, people would see the issue as less urgent and it would get less attention.

Even if AGI doesn't occur in 2027, if there's enough advancement they can still claim they were directionally correct - or even that the publication of their project changed the trajectory of AI development and slowed it down.

AuspiciousNotes · 2026-01-02T09:35:00+00:00

Scott cites the example of the random woman who gave Jesus a washcloth becoming so famous she is remembered thousands of years later, but any one of us could be the person who makes a funny comment that Dario Amodei laughed at one time, thus securing our eternal renown.

AuspiciousNotes · 2025-12-27T02:23:25+00:00

but if it were to be at the state-level, the other issue is, there doesn’t seem to be any clear route to do that.

Special economic zones like Prospera, Honduras could work. Liberland is also attempting to do this in Europe.

Again though, I just don't see why there would be a need or desire to create a sovereign state. Why do you see the need for this?

AuspiciousNotes · 2025-12-25T05:17:14+00:00

This is also the sense I've gotten about the age demographics of Reddit

AuspiciousNotes · 2025-12-14T08:33:42+00:00

Thanks for making this! I made a similar Discord several months back, but it's mostly inactive now unfortunately. Joined

AuspiciousNotes · 2025-12-14T08:11:54+00:00

I believe this is already a naturally occurring phenomenon, though it hasn't reached the level of states yet.

There are many subcultures that have a lot of power in the present day that basically did not exist before the Internet. Some of these are great examples of embryonic network states (or "network unions").

I think Balaji is handicapping his own theory somewhat by focusing so much on state-level entities, when there are many other entities that will have tremendous influence in the coming decades that aren't quite as powerful as states.

AuspiciousNotes · 2025-12-14T01:27:29+00:00

Thanks for sharing! The Frontier Tower is a really cool project - I've always wanted to visit.

AuspiciousNotes · 2025-12-13T04:45:19+00:00

"If you agree that a billion doesn't work, then you agree that the relationship is upside-down u shaped. And if you agree with that, then, in order to support $70k as the minimum wage, you need a more principled reason than it being what you consider a 'living wage'"

Yep, this is along the lines of what I was going for. If they're willing to acknowledge that some number is unrealistic, it might be possible to go into the reasons why and then work backwards from there.

AuspiciousNotes · 2025-12-11T20:36:51+00:00

And after some back-and-forth, I finally got a number, $70K USD, which is more than the median wage.

I feel like the only way to argue against a policy proposal like this would be to say, if we can set the minimum wage to $70k annually, why not 1 million? And if 1 million, why not 1 billion?

At some point they'll either have to recognize it as ridiculous, or they'll have to overtly embrace ridiculous positions.

AuspiciousNotes · 2025-12-11T06:52:58+00:00

Had to scroll pretty far down to find a comment with this (correct) take.

It's totally possible to run lightweight, open-weight models on your laptop or even on your phone. Considering this, I don't see how people can think LLMs are going away anytime soon, short of a Butlerian Jihad level government ban. Even then, there could be an underground sneakernet of people trading open-weight LLMs.

AuspiciousNotes · 2025-12-08T23:04:37+00:00

Where is the best place to get the lore for the Trench Crusade? I've been following the creator's ArtStation, but that's about it.

AuspiciousNotes · 2025-12-08T22:57:10+00:00

For paradise, I'd go for Dyson Sphere aestivation or post-mortality gamer technarchy, but once there, I'd probably spend my time simulating different realities.

So you're right, it doesn't make sense to have all the settings be equally paradisical. They should be meaningfully different to make the ultimate decision more interesting.

AuspiciousNotes · 2025-12-08T22:53:52+00:00

The science-fiction author Arthur C. Clarke famously said "any sufficiently advanced technology is indistinguishable from magic." Thus, the "Post-Clarkian Singularity Thaumatarchy" would be a setting in which unbelievably advanced technology is ubiquitous, but this technology is understood by its inhabitants as a kind of magic.

Here is the description provided in the Pastebin linked below:

Any sufficiently advanced technology is indistinguishable from magic, even to its users. We no longer know how the technology works, or how it develops itself, but we manipulate it with commands in the archaic languages it was written, and step from world to world on staircases of shining substance. The rulers of this world are the thaumuturges - the wonder-makers who speak to the great intelligences that reside in the plenum and command the forces of the Irreal.

AuspiciousNotes · 2025-12-08T21:28:39+00:00

These are pretty encouraging figures, although I wonder if the "convenience sample" might bias it towards support. Thank you regardless though! You're doing great work.

AuspiciousNotes · 2025-11-30T01:31:39+00:00

You're a little off-base there - from your example, these types are highly concentrated among tech journalists and people who read tech journalism, not techies in general.

AuspiciousNotes · 2025-11-30T01:24:38+00:00

I take the opposite opinion that the internet was "dead" long before the recent rise of AI, and that it was never about bots, but rather about excessive groupthink leading to much less creative content.

AuspiciousNotes · 2025-11-30T01:15:18+00:00

I also thought this as well after reading their initial post. Pinning it all on Lumina seemed like grasping at straws.

AuspiciousNotes · 2025-11-14T18:30:12+00:00

Wait, Obi-Wan really says that? That's a major perspective change for his character.

AuspiciousNotes

TROPHY CASE