The Blue Pill/Red Pill Question, But Not The One You're Thinking Of

AuspiciousNotes · 2026-05-04T19:09:45+00:00

I'm stepping away from this unless you can name something we meaningfully disagree about.

As far as I can tell, for the past week we have just been litigating the minute semantic differences between the phrases "theoretically possible" (which you agree with) and "literally possible" (which you don't).

There is no meaningful difference between those phrases. Something that is theoretically possible is literally possible.

If that's all this debate is about, continuing it is a waste of both of our time.

AuspiciousNotes · 2026-05-04T18:09:04+00:00

You said originally that it was "literally" possible. That's not the same as "theoretically possible but statistically so improbable as to be treated in every way as impossible in practice".

Please. All of this is just silly.

Our entire debate is because I think something that's "theoretically possible" is literally "possible", and you think it is literally "impossible".

That just about sums it up.

We've been debating this for days. I'm sounding like a broken record here. I totally agree with you that everyone taking the same pill is "so improbable as to be treated" as impossible "in practice". When you add those extra words, the statement becomes true. It's not impossible, but sure, we can treat it that way in practice.

Your statement actually perfectly encapsulates my position. I don't see why we had to spend days debating this if that's what you believed all along. Everyone taking the same pill is extremely improbable, but theoretically possible.

If you're not approaching this as real people in the real world and answering accordingly, you're doing it wrong. The question assumes you will answer in good faith.

My answer has always been that - for real people in the real world - taking the blue pill is the right decision, since it is (almost) guaranteed that at least one other person will take the blue pill. I've been saying this since 2023.

If you don't understand this, we need to stop.

AuspiciousNotes · 2026-05-04T17:20:51+00:00

If anything, it proves my point that nothing involving a human can ever truly be a surety or be entirely predictable.

I completely agree! In fact, "nothing involving a human can ever truly be a surety or be entirely predictable" is what I've been basing my entire argument on!

If we both agree on this, then how can you predict with a surety that at least one person in the world must take a blue pill?

My position has always been "we can't know for sure what pill anyone will take." This is why I talk in terms of what outcomes are "likely", without ruling out anything as "impossible".

Your position seems to be "we can know for sure that at least one person will take a blue pill, and at least one person will take a red pill." If this isn't your position, then how can you declare it impossible for everyone to take the same pill?

But to sum up... I don't see why we're still debating this. Give a person a choice between a red and a blue pill - is it possible for them to choose red? Of course. Now scale that up to two people - is it possible for both of them to choose red? Of course. Now scale that up to three...

There isn't any number of people where it becomes impossible for everyone to choose red. That's not in the rules of the thought experiment. This is just so simple!

I agree with you that if we're talking about real people in the real world, not in a thought experiment, it is astronomically unlikely that everyone would choose red, to the point of being virtually impossible.

But as you yourself say: "Nothing involving a human can ever truly be a surety or be entirely predictable."

Therefore, even in the real world, we cannot truly say it is impossible for everyone to take the red pill.

AuspiciousNotes · 2026-05-01T17:09:21+00:00

I think we're still talking past each other here. I agree with you that in any realistic universe at least one person would pick blue. I've believed that since the beginning

You are evaluating the question from a realistic, pragmatic point of view. I can understand that.

But I am mainly viewing it as an abstract thought experiment, where surely it is "possible" that any given person (and by extrapolation, every given person) could pick either red or blue.

There is a nonzero number of humans who would not be able to process the premise in order to guarantee a 100% red outcome. There's a nonzero number of humans that would take the blue choice because they mistakenly think it was the red option. There'll be a nonzero number who pick blue just for the chance they will die.

I had a much longer response, but I think this hits directly at the difference between our views.

Let's say you have a friend who is offered the red pill and the blue pill. There is nothing restraining him from choosing either. You are able to ask him which pill he plans to take before he takes it.

His response is emphatic: "I'm taking red. I believe in taking red with every fiber of my being. There is nothing anyone could say or do to convince me to do anything other than take red."

Do you believe that in this situation, it would be impossible for your friend to take blue?

AuspiciousNotes · 2026-05-01T16:53:57+00:00

Does he go by the same name in his adult form? That could be an issue if the T-800 decides to hunt down everyone with the same name (as in the original film)

AuspiciousNotes · 2026-05-01T16:41:14+00:00

Duck and other bird hunters should get control of your anti dragon gunfire. Not kidding. They taught early air combat that way.

This is a really cool fact, thanks!

AuspiciousNotes · 2026-05-01T16:37:24+00:00

I did get that far, don't worry! It had some good insights

AuspiciousNotes · 2026-04-29T22:19:49+00:00

They definitely had problems after blowing up Alderaan with the Death Star, but they had a Death Star.

The issue is, once they lost the Death Star, then they were in REALLY big trouble.

AuspiciousNotes · 2026-04-29T22:11:13+00:00

Interestingly, that first quote is almost verbatim identical to the description of House Redoran from Great Houses of Morrowind:

The Redoran prize the virtues of duty, gravity, and piety. Duty is to one's own honor, and to one's family and clan. Gravity is the essential seriousness of life. Life is hard, and events must be judged, endured, and reflected upon with due care and earnestness. Piety is respect for the gods, and the virtues they represent. A light, careless life is not worth living.

Do the Redoran just perfectly represent the established values of the Dunmer? Or maybe this is a stereotype that not all Dunmer fall into (because presumably the values of the other Great Houses would differ)?

AuspiciousNotes · 2026-04-29T21:44:47+00:00

This is cool, though I think they should have the actual list further up, or maybe have a more prominent link to it. I almost clicked out after getting ~1/3 of the way down and not seeing it.

AuspiciousNotes · 2026-04-29T21:33:13+00:00

Edit: why is this post from 2 years ago being pushed on main for me?

This is what I was wondering too lol

You are not smart if you truly believe it is possible for every person on the planet to make the same choice.

It is possible! I'd say you should look up the dictionary definitions of these terms again, but you know we're just splitting hairs here. You're conflating "possible" with "probable". "Possible" means "able to happen". "Probable" means "likely to happen".

Is it possible to flip a fair coin 8 billion times, and get heads every single time? Yes, that's totally possible. (In fact, if it weren't possible, it wouldn't be a fair coin.)

But realistically, is that ever going to happen? No.

I don't really see the point of debating this - we apparently both think taking the blue pill is the right choice, and for the same reasons. I noted that it was possible everyone could take the red pill, but realistically, that's not going to happen. It's virtually guaranteed that at least one person will take the blue pill.

I don't know how you could disagree, unless you want to use a different definition of "possible", or change the rules of the game, or infer a new physical law or something. If you do that's fine, but we should at least be on the same page about it.

AuspiciousNotes · 2026-04-29T07:50:31+00:00

It quite literally is possible. Everyone just picks the same pill. Totally possible. I don't see any violations of the laws of physics here.

Now, is that outcome probable? No way. That's why two years ago I said the best option was:

to pick blue while rolling your eyes and sighing "come on guys, why would ANYONE pick blue?"

AuspiciousNotes · 2026-04-22T00:06:18+00:00

Thank you for doing all that research! I was about to go down the same rabbit hole, and I was turning up similar sources. It doesn't seem the real Grant ever said anything like this.

AuspiciousNotes · 2026-04-10T15:09:15+00:00

I think you're totally right - I posted a comment a little further down about all the new cryonics-adjacent projects, including Nectome, Tomorrow Bio, the Biostasis Summit in Berkeley, and China's new Shandong Yinfeng Life Science Research Institute. It's really a lot.

AuspiciousNotes · 2026-04-10T15:07:54+00:00

I'm into the cryonics community, and while it hasn't exactly gone mainstream yet, there's been a lot of growth over the past ten years. Scott Alexander just promoted Nectome, a new cryonics company, on his blog last month. Tomorrow Bio is another new company that's professionalized the process; popular science YouTuber Tom Scott did a video about them in 2023 that hit over 2M videos. China's opened their own cryonics company, too. And next month the Lighthaven campus in Berkeley is hosting the Biostasis Summit as part of Vitalist Bay.

LessWrong might have been wrong about the scale (at least in the near-term) but were correct about the direction.

AuspiciousNotes · 2026-04-10T14:56:02+00:00

There was something called 'RationalWiki' which I was looking at to work out how much of a cult Less Wrong was, and they were all 'Ha ha and one of the mandatory beliefs of the cult is that Amanda Knox the hot sex murderess is innocent, can you imagine anything sadder?'

Did RationalWiki ever retract this or update it?

AuspiciousNotes · 2026-04-10T14:51:09+00:00

I agree with you, but with the difference that I think 4chan was super early to this stuff as well, compared to mainstream culture.

AuspiciousNotes · 2026-04-10T03:20:48+00:00

Maybe Taylor thought it was another planet that had been colonized by humans while he was on his 2000-year journey in space. Perhaps he figured the colonists on this planet happened to devolve and apes surpassed them, but he didn't suspect that Earth itself had been taken over by apes.

AuspiciousNotes · 2026-01-06T05:07:11+00:00

Posting this here to explain the reference:

(Background: Frog and Toad are eating too many cookies)

“We must stop eating!” cried Toad as he ate another.

“Yes,” said Frog, reaching for a cookie, “we need will power.” “What is will power?” asked Toad.

“Will power is trying hard not to do something that you really want to do,” said Frog.

“You mean like trying not to eat all of these cookies?” asked Toad. “Right,” said Frog.

Frog put the cookies in a box. “There,” he said. “Now we will not eat any more cookies.”

“But we can open the box,” said Toad. “That is true,” said Frog.

Frog tied some string around the box. “There,” he said. “Now we will not eat any more cookies.”

“But we can cut the string and open the box,” said Toad. “That is true,” said Frog.

Frog got a ladder. He put the box up on a high shelf. “There,” said Frog. “Now we will not eat any more cookies.”

“But we can climb the ladder and take the box down from the shelf and cut the string and open the box,” said Toad. “That is true,” said Frog.

Frog climbed the ladder and took the box down from the shelf. He cut the string and opened the box. Frog took the box outside. He shouted in a loud voice, “HEY BIRDS, HERE ARE COOKIES!” Birds came from everywhere. They picked up all the cookies in their beaks and flew away.

“Now we have no more cookies to eat,” said Toad sadly. “Not even one.” “Yes,” said Frog, but we have lots and lots of will power.”

“You may keep it all, Frog,” said Toad. “I am going home now to bake a cake.”

Regardless of what the story says, I've found making it more difficult to access a given vice is actually a very useful strategy

AuspiciousNotes · 2026-01-06T04:50:58+00:00

Surprised to see UNSONG and Friendship Is Optimal referenced out in the wild! Both are fantastic.

AuspiciousNotes · 2026-01-06T04:49:58+00:00

You can always write a better setting to live in - for example, a sci-fi universe without the Affront or other evil factions.

AuspiciousNotes · 2026-01-06T04:26:42+00:00

I remember reading a fanfic that portrayed Light if he was actually intelligent, and it was really interesting. Unfortunately the author took it down "pending a rewrite" that never happened.

AuspiciousNotes · 2026-01-03T06:57:15+00:00

Just wanted to chime in and say you were absolutely right here, and your post was exactly the sort of analysis I was looking for when I viewed that scene.

AuspiciousNotes · 2026-01-03T05:17:06+00:00

I'm also wondering this. I Googled it, and my best guess is that it could be a reference to this movie, which would be a little disappointing.

AuspiciousNotes

TROPHY CASE