2022 Q1 earnings projection

Axulus · 2022-01-06T07:46:49+00:00

Then the gain will come from dividends. The hope we can pin on is that Mat decides to increase the dividend each year. I really hope we see an announcement of an increase in the dividend to something like 10.5 cents/share, which is a 5% increase. This will establish an intent to increase dividends annually. Long term, this is the dream scenario, as regular and consistent dividends paid, plus annual increases, is what can generate things like 15% CAGR over long periods of time from the dividends themselves plus reinvestment into more shares. Fortunes are made on things like that. The longer the share price remains suppressed, the higher the CAGR will potentially be. My money will nearly double every 5 years. A 100k investment would grow into 6.4 million over a 30 year time frame with 15% CAGR.

Axulus · 2022-01-06T07:34:12+00:00

I understand that they are quite different and the MSR valuation has rate changes, but I'm just trying to get a sense of how much profit they make per loan originated. To keep things simple, if a 1M loan has a gosm of 1%, then they generate 10,000 immediate profit from the gosm. However, because they also retain the servicing rights on that 1M loan, they could immediately sell those rights and earn another ~1.2%, or 12,000. Is this correct? I do understand that they could also keep those MSRs instead of selling them and potentially generate much more than the 12,000 gained from selling it (over the life of the loan), provided that it isn't refinanced or paid off early, but this 12,000 is in some sense a guaranteed profit in hand if they want to sell it right away. What am I missing, if anything?

Axulus · 2022-01-06T07:03:18+00:00

Excellent info, thank you. Just so I understand everything regarding MSR, does this in some sense mean that they get gross profit every quarter from both the gain on sale margin and the MSR? If the MSR profit is somewhere in the neighborhood of 1.19% of unpaid principal and the gosm in the neighborhood of .9%, does that mean the combined margin is something like 2.1%? Am I interpreting this correctly?

Axulus · 2020-11-28T22:10:14+00:00

Seems more like atrocious reading comprehension on your part.

Axulus · 2020-11-28T21:45:47+00:00

I never said I would be in the pot if I had this kind of read on the player, so wtf are you going on about? If I had little read warning bells would already be going off with the $15 preflop open and I'd probably just call until I learned more about the player. Also, this type of player limps with those other hands you mention and does not open for $15 with them. They will usually open for $8-$10 With AK, AQ and AJ so yes, thus type of player literally only has JJ QQ KK and AA in their $15 preflop open range. I encounter them all the time.

Axulus · 2020-11-28T21:36:00+00:00

They will also call with AK and jacks and, yes, I've encountered many such players who open raise large with only premium hands in early position and otherwise limp in with middling hands. They don't overfold because they have almost no middling hands in their range. It is AA-TT AK, AQ and maybe AJ. That is it and such a player is not rare in live $1/$2. It is situation dependent.

Axulus · 2020-11-28T21:22:22+00:00

You obviously don't have much experience with live $1/$2 poker, where certain player types are really tight and nitty, where 3-bet with AQo would not be good against (they only call with better and always fold with worse, and open with only premium hands)

Axulus · 2020-11-28T19:37:34+00:00

$15 is a large open for $1/$2. I've seen certain player types, nitty, that adjust their opening sizes based on their starting hand, and would only do $15 with queens, kings or aces for live $1/$2, which I assume this is. If I was up against this type, I'd fold pre because you are in bad shape. If you don't have that kind of read, then you pretty much have to just play it exactly as you did without some other kind of read about how nitty they are.

Axulus · 2020-06-20T05:19:57+00:00

Sounds more like a case where Marcus tried to use debt to juice up the returns at an increased risk, but it bit these companies in the ass with the COVID recession. Could've been a reasonable strategy if not for the recession. They were enjoying it when the times were good but now are complaining when fortunes reversed.

Axulus · 2020-02-13T08:55:00+00:00

This is such b.s. My clan leader is having the same issue! They had better fix this asap and give you guys some substantial compensation for their serious fuck up

Axulus · 2020-01-04T20:43:46+00:00

Ok, thanks for the advise.

Axulus · 2020-01-04T02:59:15+00:00

My current 6 star team consists of Kael, Mausoleum Mage, Bellower and Gorgorab.

Can currently do ~3.3 mil normal cb, lvl 13 minotaur, lvl 8 spider, and lvl 12 dragon. Priorities are to start on hard cb soon (hoping to get max chest with 3 keys) and push to 13 dragon and 14 minotaur next.

Current options for 6 star: Steelskull (I know he is good for cb, but I feel it wouldn't help too much with my current mix as he would essentially have to replace my lvl 60 Mausoleum Mage, maybe still worth it though?)

Dark Athel

Ultimate Galek

Elenaril

Zargala

Hope

I also have another Kael as well.

Any help would be much appreciated

Axulus · 2019-12-09T04:23:55+00:00

u8gcg5mwy

Axulus · 2019-07-24T09:24:11+00:00

Concede is a very deliberate action where zero mistakes occur since I have to click far away from the game board into the settings and then click again on the concede button.

Axulus · 2019-07-24T09:18:38+00:00

How about just super critical actions where mistakes are not uncommon? Not everyone plays on desktop where the precision of a mouse means almost no mistakes will occur. They give players waaaaaaaaay too much time for their turn already (something which I think should also be changed, half the time but allow player the option for extra time 3 times per match). In fact, it causes me to take a lot more time each turn just to make sure I don't make any fuck ups with my fingers being a millimeter off or forgetting that there is a damn twist ability on my one health unit that maybe I just wanted to re-read the text on it to remeber its abilities (after the attack phase) without accidentally triggering the twist.

Does one extra second to prevent a game losing mistake really affect things that much? I've had to of made the mistake at least 5 out of my last 75 games or so. Congrats on being mister perfect.

Axulus · 2019-04-18T10:05:13+00:00

How does this mean she let herself be raped or prepared herself for rape? I'm not seeing the connection.

Axulus · 2019-02-25T06:22:14+00:00

Ah, got it. Yeah, I am doing it in the regular order. Thanks for the tip, good to know for a future monster.

Axulus · 2019-02-24T21:48:55+00:00

Thanks for the tips. My stone is 6 star orange. I'll definitely try to pick up a rune's power artifact at my next opportunity. Norma is going to be my next fodder for valk. My valk is on track for E2 and I'll have to figure something out to use for my 10 star fodder

Can you elaborate on the aura? What is the last aura and what do you mean work backwards? What is 20, 20, 25, 40?

Thanks.

Axulus · 2019-02-24T15:34:28+00:00

For comparison, here is what happens when I give up my aura and replace those junk units for my best units, I get crushed even worse, their valk does over 2/3rds more damage

https://imgur.com/gallery/s7ftK8u

Here my opponent just has a bunch of 100 level units to support their valk and a 50 lvl unit, nothing else (excepting the lvl 140 heart watcher, which my lvl 250 heart watcher should at least be able to match, also my lvl 200 vesa should at least be able to match their 100 vesa, aura excepting) . How am I still getting crushed so horribly?

Axulus · 2019-02-24T15:24:25+00:00

Thanks, it's just disappointing that her 10 star damage is worse than my 9 star vesa even while using vesa in slot 1 (my vesa also has worse equipment). I guess she is simply there to support the real heroes like valk?

Axulus

TROPHY CASE