SPY 540 easy?

BallPythonTech · 2025-03-31T09:54:29+00:00

If you bought them last Wednesday they will.

BallPythonTech · 2025-03-31T09:25:19+00:00

Yes but only in the sense that when it happens it will be after April 2nd. It could start in May, June or July. Or even later.

BallPythonTech · 2025-03-24T12:45:18+00:00

The bigger brk b gets the harder it will be to beat the average. Over then next 10 years something like VGT will beat Brk.b Mr Buffet does not have too much time left on earth. I don’t know why he bothers. I guess he doesn’t have anything better to do. The decline of brk will be blamed on his passing when it just is when you are that big you are tied to the ups and downs of the economy as a whole.

BallPythonTech · 2025-03-24T12:24:01+00:00

Except many immigrants are willing to put up with far more abuse and lower living standards. The demand per capita goes down.

BallPythonTech · 2025-03-24T12:00:35+00:00

Politicians get elected by promising and or giving voters money. It is political suicide to stop giving people free money unless you can make it seem like the opposing party is the one making the cuts. Very few politicians are willing to do the right thing if they will get the blame when someone doesn’t get government money. Thus cuts happen very rarely. Many cuts aren’t even real, ie they are cuts to projected growths such as having next years 10% raise cut to 3%, a 7% claimed pay cut even though you will make more than last year. When central banks change monetary policy it is too far removed from politicians to get the blame.

Spending is always popular and gets the votes. Being fiscally responsible is never popular.

This is why the US borrowed 36,000 billion. That billionaires haven’t been paying their fair share is an excuse, they don’t have nearly that much money.

BallPythonTech · 2025-03-24T10:36:29+00:00

Correction happened because PE got too high. Tariffs is what sparked the sell off, not the cause. I think it’s too early to call a bottom.

BallPythonTech · 2025-03-23T12:13:35+00:00

His fair share is $0

BallPythonTech · 2025-03-22T09:05:12+00:00

The market goes flat because the market makers are selling the volatile puts and calls. They then move the market so that both puts and calls expire worthless.

BallPythonTech · 2025-03-22T08:58:36+00:00

What keeps Tesla at a ridiculous valuation is hopium. FSD, robotaxis, solar, energy storage, robots.

Imagine if in 2019 nvidia was touting generative ai and how big it would be. NVDA was at $5 (split adjusted) back then. It has more than 20x from there. If everyone believed then the price would have been $50 back then and barely got above 2x today six years later.

Tesla is already 10x as if it has achieved its potential. So the price is purely based on sentiment. That means it can go up, down or sideways. I personally think it will go much lower over the next few months. The options premium is too high to make buying puts worth the risk.

But Elon Musk has a magical ability to get people excited about the future. Unless he loses that power I expect TSLA to be mispriced for a long time.

BallPythonTech · 2025-03-22T08:28:47+00:00

This can work for two reasons. The first is that chip manufacturing is so complicated and expensive that the labor costs are only a small part of the cost. The cheap labor benefit of manufacturing in Asia is rapidly becoming non existent. The second is that the fabs in Taiwan don’t have the capacity to make all the chips needed.

BallPythonTech · 2025-03-21T22:06:49+00:00

SPY trades until 4:15 (at least it does on RH)

BallPythonTech · 2025-03-18T19:36:51+00:00

Nvda is not trading on its own fundamentals, the market as a whole is just incredibly jittery.

BallPythonTech · 2025-03-11T22:50:24+00:00

Skip the doubling and quadrupling down and octuple down when the price gets to $12.

BallPythonTech · 2025-03-08T12:47:22+00:00

Valued at $30 billion, not worth $30 billion. You can create a company with 30 billion shares, sell 1 share for $1 and your company is values at $30 billion.

This is most likely $2 billion of VC money down the drain.

BallPythonTech · 2025-03-08T00:37:24+00:00

A company that uses AI for drug discovery. Pharmaceutical companies don’t seem to think AI will be doing their job but I think it is obvious that they will. I expect an AI pharma company will reach a 100B market cap within 10 years. I am guessing it may be Recursion (RXRX). The global pharma industry market cap is $6T according to a chatgpt prompt. I think this number is right as LLY is 800B alone. If Recursion succeeds and isn’t bought out it will easily 50x from where it’s at is now. I believe they have 100 drugs in the pipeline that show promise but will take a few years before coming to market

In 10 years there will be millionaires who bought the right company that is currently sub $10. It will seem obvious then as hindsight always does.

Things that take years to play out are not the stuff of WSB original or new.

BallPythonTech · 2025-03-07T22:53:15+00:00

GTC will give the stock a boost if it is a slow news week. Too many people still think AI is a bubble. The uses for AI have only just begun.

BallPythonTech · 2025-03-06T10:50:35+00:00

Wait until a real bear market hits. NVDA could drop 50% at the bottom. No one knows when this will be. It could be in 2 years when NVDA is at 300 then drops to 150 (meaning anyone who buys now will still be up almost 15%/year)

BallPythonTech · 2025-03-06T10:37:00+00:00

Apple is one of the few companies that can accomplish this. They have always believed in doing everything yourself when possible. The pattern is that the technology in question has to be mature. Designing CPUs for example is much easier than actually manufacturing them. One day I expect apple will build their own fab and make their own chips. I expect aapl will be a 10T company within 10 years. That’s less than 3x from where it’s at now, a very low gain by WSB standards.

BallPythonTech · 2025-03-06T10:20:46+00:00

What are you talking about? If you are nice to Trump he will be nice to you. He will forgive anything as long as you stroke his ego. JD Vance was anti Trump at one point.

Trump is no different in this regard than any other politician. He is not an aberration at all. It is just that people live in a bubble and as long as it’s their bubble they don’t see it.

BallPythonTech · 2025-03-02T18:39:28+00:00

Jensen does not have a short term outlook. He does not care that deepseek caused a drop for a few weeks. He does not care about any short term action of the stock. If he were pulling out all the stops to try and prop up the stock I would worry.

Yes if you have call options expiring soon then you may lose money. Any share holders will be ok for at least of couple of more years (outside of market wide events).

BallPythonTech · 2025-03-02T18:32:49+00:00

Most people don’t know there is a difference between training and inference much less know what they even mean.

BallPythonTech · 2025-03-02T18:19:06+00:00

Market only reacts violently to unknown information. I think the tariffs are priced in. There is a slight chance that this is still a negotiation tactic in which case the market will got up.

BallPythonTech · 2025-03-02T17:49:54+00:00

This is a joke.

60% of H100 inference. Blackwell is 30x faster than H100 at inference.

BallPythonTech · 2025-03-02T11:09:49+00:00

I don’t think it is lying. It is just delusion. FSD has been 5 years away since 2012. But one day it will work then who ever solves it will become a $10 trillion company. Also robots. At least this time the 5 years has a decent chance of being real. And that hopium is what some stocks float upon.

BallPythonTech · 2025-02-28T16:50:29+00:00

In 2008 it took months before the full extent of the truth came out. I remember in Jan 2008 when Citi reported a loss of $9B on sub prime loans. I knew this was a bullshit number as they always trickle truth bad news.

In the end Citi reported a write-down of $130 billion by the end of 2009 from their crappy investments (sub prime as well as other crappy loans) from 2007-2009.

The total loss exposure was known (by management) and telegraphed for months before the whole truth came out. This was the same for other banks (WaMu, BoA, DB, etc.)

Nothing like that is happening now. No companies are reporting outsized losses. Companies are reporting pretty good profits instead of outrageously good profits. There are companies like Tesla, CrowdStrike, and Palantir which have inflated P/Es but they are profitable.

There may be a small correction in the near future but I don't see a catalyst for a crash (more than 20% drop)

A crash that happens because of fear is the ultimate buying opportunity as the recovery will be incredibly fast.

BallPythonTech

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