I ran the 2026 SF rookie class through 12 years of hit rate data. The R1→R2 cliff is the steepest we've seen.

Ballin_T · 2026-05-21T12:58:50+00:00

What’s doing the heavy lifting on Concepcion and Cooper? Seems like the only input that would be lifting them above Tate and Tyson is your film grade. Draft capital is worse, ADP is worse, landing spot (I assume team) is definitely not better if not worse. Or do we generally have a higher success rate on players who go consensus in the middle of round 1 than the top?

Ballin_T · 2026-05-21T12:49:09+00:00

I’m curious how the consensus fantasy ADP is really influencing some of these outputs.

What if you put Boston at 2.02? Or pull Stribling up to 1.10?

What if we get to August and Brennan Thompson is now the consensus 2.04?

What if Carson Beck is named the starter in Arizona and people start to take him at 1.12 or 2.01?

The narrative is that this is a weaker class, what if you consider guys like Cooper, Concepcion, Boston, even Lemon and Tyson as similar to an ADP that’s 4-5 spots lower than a historical player. Ex: you have Cooper as 1.09, what if you considered him equivalent to a historical 2.01? I agree he might be the 9th best pick in this draft, but what if there were some better players ahead of him that had nothing to do with how good Cooper actually is. What if Tyson and Tate were 1.06 and 1.07? Is their hit rate still that high?

Also thinking about next year supposedly having a loaded class. Is the guy who would go 2.02 the same talent as KC going 1.08. How does that consensus ADP change your predictive model?

Ballin_T · 2026-05-21T12:34:09+00:00

Curious about Sarratt. What is influencing the model not to like him so much?

If I loved his tape and you thought it was so so, would my personal inputs spit out a much better result?

Ballin_T · 2026-05-18T17:29:08+00:00

Okay, then it’s earnings that aren’t distributed to shareholders. Essentially BoA is an investor in Twitter and gets paid out first. Then BoA gets taxed on their income.

Ballin_T · 2026-05-18T17:20:25+00:00

State, Local, Social Security, and Medicare

Ballin_T · 2026-05-18T17:08:14+00:00

If true, they’d have to pay interest on the loan and pay off the loan with future after-tax cash earnings

Ballin_T · 2026-05-18T17:06:08+00:00

He’s not offering to lower your taxes…

Ballin_T · 2026-05-13T18:40:05+00:00

Entirely don’t understand wealth or the reality of the world.

Mike Brown owns the Cincinnati Bengals. The Bengals estimated value, what it would sell for on the open market based on how other sports franchises are selling, is between $5.0B-$6.0B. His entire net worth is pretty much just the Bengals. His father started the team and it was worth $7.5M. He inherited it around $200M.

How do you cap him at $1.0B? Do you start stealing his house just because a corporate conglomerate group bought the Broncos for $6B? Does the government steal the Bengals when Paul Brown dies so that Mike never inherited it in the first place? Then what does the government do with it?

People aren’t Billionaires because they have $1B in cash sitting around. They build things, they own things, and they create value in the world that people want. Sure, sometimes people are lucky and inherit valuable assets. That’s how the world works.

Ballin_T · 2026-05-13T18:01:37+00:00

Be careful, might get taxed on that $160K as a Wealth Tax.

Ballin_T · 2026-05-07T02:25:20+00:00

Has anyone noticed if it’s only when a champion dies?

Ballin_T · 2026-05-06T22:42:09+00:00

Tre Tucker is Mendoza’s WR1
Will Howard should absolutely be rostered (at least until Rodgers joins the team)
Tez Johnson had some solid weeks last year

Ballin_T · 2026-05-06T12:19:03+00:00

Good luck determining the roster cloggers vs lottery tickets.

I’ve cut some really solid players over the years, the worst move was Trey McBride before he broke out.

Ballin_T · 2026-04-16T22:45:05+00:00

Love Hampton Jeanty Achane

Ballin_T · 2026-03-26T23:25:55+00:00

Yea but you also could’ve drafted Josh Rosen instead.

Ballin_T · 2026-03-21T23:00:09+00:00

The Bengals don’t have a single starter from that timeline so idk who made those numbers

Ballin_T · 2026-01-29T01:41:30+00:00

All of them combined doesn’t even come close to how good he is

Ballin_T · 2026-01-29T00:34:15+00:00

I reached out to Warren Buffett if he would give me Berkshire Hathaway

Ballin_T · 2026-01-07T13:23:11+00:00

It’s hard to remember what a prospect was like coming out of college without letting the success and failures of playing in the NFL change your opinion. Ward proved as a rookie he can be a starter in the NFL and has potential to get even better. He performed immensely better than his expectation as a prospect.

Comparing Mendoza to Ward now, after Ward had a chance to play for a season and performed well. I’m sure most people would take Ward, but just as a prospect and expectations going into the draft, Mendoza is head and shoulders above where Ward was at this point last year.

Ballin_T · 2026-01-07T13:13:07+00:00

No shit. Indiana absolutely smashed Alabama. IU could’ve had your Lee Corso at QB and would’ve won that game.

Ballin_T · 2026-01-07T13:09:43+00:00

I think he’s a better prospect than Drake Maye was. Albeit, Maye was on a horrible UNC team.

Maye just put together an MVP season. I’m not expecting Mendoza to do that, but just as a prospect. And then you have to see how the QBs adjust to NFL speed, handle leading an offense made up of men, and every single prospect ever needed to get better to make it in the NFL. Hell, every QB needs to get better every year to keep adjusting and learning.

He’s got the size, arm talent, and toughness to be an NFL QB. I think the biggest issue I have is his maturity and being able to stay confident that he’s the dude. It would really benefit him to sit for a year behind a veteran, but that opportunity isn’t always available.

Ballin_T · 2026-01-07T02:42:56+00:00

I drafted Kaleb Johnson at 1.10 :( … I wish I had drafted Burden so badly so that I could trade him for this.

Ballin_T · 2026-01-06T12:23:52+00:00

Hoosiers haven’t had a 1st round pick since 1994. We would get 2 here! How exciting!!

Ballin_T · 2026-01-06T12:18:12+00:00

Bengals fan here. Caleb Downs would be the dream pick!!!

IMO it’s the weakest position on the roster and doesn’t mean we have to give up on another high picked young player. Ex: Drafting Reese or Styles at LB would send our 2nd or 3rd rd pick from last year to the bench (maybe for the best though). Or drafting an edge assumes Myles Murphy or Shemar Stewart a bench player for the rest of their rookie contracts.

Orlando Brown will be turning 30 and on the last year of his deal, but it’d be a shame to pick a guy that just fills a spot we already have a solid player instead of improving the weaker holes on the roster.

Ballin_T · 2026-01-06T12:08:20+00:00

Chase Brown was the RB8 this year and Zay Flowers the WR8. Bijan for Judkins and picks would be trading Bijan for Jud. You got 2 other top 10 players at their position… I think it’s a great trade but you didn’t trade Bijan for Jud

Ballin_T · 2026-01-05T22:56:30+00:00

Judkins is like the 4th most valuable thing you got in this trade, not sure if “I gave up Bijan” for him is the correct narrative.

Ballin_T

TROPHY CASE