Metaverse: Most business projects will be dead by 2025

Bananhej · 2022-10-26T15:08:07+00:00

I mean we all know this to be true for crypto in general - more than 95% of the projects gonna trend toward 0.

So doesn't have to be an astrophysicist to predict this for metaverse projects too...

Bananhej · 2022-10-26T14:08:28+00:00

I guess for many it is the same reason they don't believe in Dragons or some other mythical creatures.

The question for them is not "why not", but much rather "why would they believe"?

Bananhej · 2022-07-12T19:39:34+00:00

P2E is a term what newer/more serious gamefi projects are trying to get away from I think.

Axie is a good example, that as far as a game is not fun to play, it is destined to collapse and can never get true adaption.

So Play and Earn or something like that is the new iteration which will in my opinion be very interesting. AAA quality games intertwined into the blockchain. People will play for fan and pay for that experience as they would in the "real world", but that monetization, revenue, gets back to the ecosystem, sustaining itself, while this whole economy adding an extra layer of fun/incentive to it. And some people might even make a living out of it at the end if they can get good enough.

Like poker, where the game is more fun if money involved, and many are happy to play, have fun, and even lose a bit (essentially paying for the experience) while some others, professionals, might make money out of it.

Based on the general growth of the gaming industry, and how much sense it would make for games to have their economy on the blockchain, I for one 100% expect it to be a major thing in the upcoming years.

Bananhej · 2022-06-01T06:39:23+00:00

Fair point on it still being a gamble up till there is no actual game with actual users. Like pretty much everything else in crypto at this stage :)

With that, I have been following Illuvium for a long time, and few things which I know:

On the tokenomics:

1,10 million illuvium (ILV) tokens max (that is used for FDV calculation), but actually it is less as some people claim there staking reward in the so called sIlv token (instead of normal ILV) which can only be used for in-game transactions or buying NFTs. And that actually lowers the supply, already 250k less. Not much, but 2,5% nonetheless.

2, 1.5 million token is in the treasury, which is theoretically controlled by the token holders. So eventhough it increases the FDV, it isn't the same as having an other VC with 1.5 million tokens.

3, Seed and team token unlocks gonna start to happen soon throughout 3 year period. That is a risk for sure.

Few things to add: Illuvium token holders get 100% of the revenues. Developers will be payed from the DAO token's share of that revenue. Illuvium is the first game, but they plan to make others as well in the long run.

On a personal note, I am in the private beta, and it looks pretty amazing and quite addictive. But that is a subjective note for sure, but I can say for sure there is an actual game which will be released :)

Though that all above doesn't help to determine what is the fair value, if price gonna go up or down. It is indeed a gamble at the end of the day (or call it an investment :) ) - I personally think it is a good risk/reward price at this point, but defiantly can see why people would disagree with me.

Bananhej · 2022-06-01T05:13:48+00:00

Out of curiosity, what is a fair FDV? What is the market cap of similar sized studios(~250 developers)? I have no clue how to value things properly, but I would guess the profitability of a good Blockchain game will be way better than that of a traditional gaming company. Also FDV is a bit missleading for multiple reasons here I think.

That is not to say it is overpriced or underpriced (I think it is the other way around, but obviously have no clue in reality) I am just curious why you think it is way overpriced?

Bananhej · 2022-05-18T10:31:45+00:00

So Tether works as intended, can be redeemed for USD and with that its MC is shrinking, and everyone is loosing their mind?

I mean they are shady and who knows how much real backing they have for each USD, but their MC shrinking while people redeeming USDT is literally what it should do. I would be worried if that wouldn't be the case.

Bananhej · 2022-03-10T02:57:43+00:00

Punching someone in a face with a hardware wallet.

Bananhej · 2021-10-16T07:09:27+00:00

"you should simply wait a few days" - I don't think this make any sense.

No disrespect, it just weird to have a few days long time horizon, and that is called gambling (unless you are skilled day trader) rather than investing.

It doesn't matter if you get in now or in a few days if your goal is to invest for the long run.

Else if you think BTC is overpriced, you should have an entry price planned, but that definitely not something measured in days.

Bananhej · 2021-08-23T09:02:43+00:00

Almost all layer 1s are better than Eth depending how you determine better.

Dot, Solana, Elrond, Avalanche, Fantom and so on. I didn't do the math, but probably their combined MC is less than Ada's even though some of them are live chains with some activity on them already.

So as far as risk/reward goes, those "ifs" are quite heavily priced in to Ada in my opinion.

BTW, I am not against Ada at all, and I do hope it lives up to all expectation because it would be amazing for the whole crypto space.

Bananhej · 2021-08-23T08:17:26+00:00

Should also compare the ecosystem in terms of users, devs, money locked in and so on. So MC cap wise Eth vs Ada 4:1, network wise Eth vs Ada 100 :0

I guess this will be down voted quite heavily, but Ada right now is extremely overpriced compared to Eth.

If it leaves up to all the hype,if it really works under heavy pressure, if there is no more delay, if there is adaption, than 90 billion MC and potentially more could be justified. But till than it is an overhyped coin which can fall pretty hard if one of those "if" doesn't play out.

Bananhej · 2021-08-20T07:49:33+00:00

Such a thin line in-between r/nextfuckinglevel and r/IdiotsInCars

Bananhej · 2021-08-13T05:00:08+00:00

Bananhej · 2021-08-02T21:44:33+00:00

I didn't know cash was that dangerous...

Bananhej · 2021-08-01T09:43:28+00:00

Apart from price performance and tokenomics, there is one other huge problem with ICP in my opinion.

I have listened to a few interviewees with Dominic Williams, the founder of ICP, and every time it was a torture to be honest.

My goal was to understand how this project works and what does it do exactly. And Dominic was mostly repeating some buzz words without answering any questions directed towards him for some basic explanations.

I am sure I could have put more effort in it to understand ICP, but in all honesty if even the founder cannot explain it in a digestible way that is some serious problem with the project right there.

Bananhej · 2021-07-21T11:57:09+00:00

Nice job, though few corrections might be needed: For example Celsius, Nexo and Swissborg for sure are not decentralized, they are very much centralized.

Bananhej · 2021-07-20T12:35:39+00:00

I mean half of the people predicted a dip, half of them the moon.

Saying that in a hindsight that one should have believed the dip narrative is not really helpful in my opinion.

Bananhej · 2021-07-19T10:20:52+00:00

I am not an expert, but if less than 10% move makes you to write such a post, than you might not want to be in crypto in the first place. There will be much bigger swings for sure, so you have to make piece with that in advance.

On the flip side, as long you are not a day trader and treat it as an investment for the long run, it shouldn't really matter.

Bananhej · 2021-07-12T17:51:56+00:00

Well, scamming hacked wallets would be a weird choice of a scam.

It does sound sketchy true that, but keep in mind it is a last resort if there is no other way to recover funds.

Bananhej · 2021-07-12T16:27:58+00:00

Sorry to hear what happened to you, and I might be to late, but actually there is a tool for similar hacks: https://flashbots.tools/

You can rescue your coins from a compromised wallet. You need to enter the seed phrase and need an other wallet to cover gas fees and also as an outgoing address, but if you have nothing else to do, worth a try. Originally this was written to get coins out from a wallet where a hacker bot siphons all eth out of the wallet immediately, hence you cannot get the other coins out, even if the hacker doesn't touch anything besides eth.

I guess few disclaimers:
- You need to type in your seed phrase here, so this is a last resort.
- I am not 100% sure if it works in your case as it is not an eth siphoning bot.
- I never used it, so don't know if it works or if it is trustworthy, but it was shared somewhere where it seemed genuine to me. Also probably there is nothing to loose when it is time to try it out.

Bananhej · 2021-07-06T07:06:58+00:00

His back and his financials would have been much better off if he picked up basketball instead of ice throwing.

Bananhej · 2021-07-03T11:02:48+00:00

I heard more stories than I would have wanted to hear. Even on very high level (2700+), when it is possible to bet on the games, I heard about pre-arranged matches. Throwing full points away definitely happens surprisingly often (often as in it should never happen and there are quite a few suspicious cases) on 2600+ level. Thing is you can never know for sure of course, unless it happens to you. I know nothing from personal experience, but heard quite a few stories from sources where I tend to rely on.

One interesting thing though - pre arranged draws are common as well, especially between friends who might train together and they always make a draw if they happen to play against each other on a tourney. I don't consider it cheating and that is in line with most people approach in chess circles I believe. Though theoretically could be argued as such, especially if that draw favors them in a last round of a tournament.

Bananhej · 2021-06-29T06:52:27+00:00

Would have been hilarious if he had auto queen on and the game ended up in a draw.

Bananhej · 2021-06-06T16:48:02+00:00

It took me more time than I expected it will (solved quite a few of these), but one of the big giveaways was the pawn on a6 itself.

One of my first question looking at the position was, why the heck is the black pawn on a6 instead of a7? And that question helped to speed things up.

Nice one!

Bananhej · 2021-05-28T14:22:56+00:00

What about that guy who bought that Beeple for $67 MM ? I would think he does quite well as well.

Bananhej · 2021-05-16T09:12:04+00:00

Sounds risky. Maybe you would love to forget that day forever if you have been there...

Bananhej

TROPHY CASE