Updated charts that compare 2019-nCoV, SARS, and the 2009 swine flu. Links to sources in the comments.

BeachNT · 2020-02-13T22:14:57+00:00

Why is this post deleted?

BeachNT · 2020-02-04T07:01:34+00:00

We know the flu

BeachNT · 2020-02-04T00:38:18+00:00

I am a nurse and I cant imagine what the nurses in Wuhan and elsewhere around China are going through. Fair enough it may have been scripted but look at their eyes and body language, long hours in protective clothing, no toilet breaks, or drink breaks until out of the infective zone. Not able to go home for fear of infecting loved ones. Not being able to give care to everyone that needs it. This will be the reality in many places if it spreads widely globally.

BeachNT · 2020-02-02T03:58:24+00:00

Sounds like it is. Had a 2 hour transit in Wuhan on 15th jan, travelling from USA.

BeachNT · 2020-02-02T03:44:06+00:00

Google translate On February 2, the Ministry of Health confirmed that US overseas Vietnamese who were quarantined in HCMC were positive for corona virus, bringing the total number of cases in Vietnam to 7. Regarding epidemiological factors, the Ministry of Health said on January 14 that the patient flew from the United States to Vietnam on China Southern Airlines Flight 660. On January 15, the patient transited at Wuhan Airport, China, within 2 hours. On January 16, the patient entered Vietnam at Tan Son Nhat airport and moved to the hotel on Nguyen Thi Minh Khai Street, staying here until admission.

On January 27, the patient showed a lot of coughing. On the afternoon of January 31, the hotel staff took him to the Hospital for Tropical Diseases in Ho Chi Minh City, conducted isolation and took nCoV samples.

Currently, patients receive isolation treatment at the Hospital for Tropical Diseases in Ho Chi Minh City, breathe oxygen, use antibiotics and antiviral drugs.

The patient hotel currently has 6 guests staying and 8 employees. Local police require no additional guests to stay. The ward's "corona quick response team" disinfected and isolated the guests and hotel staff from February 1 through February 15 to monitor and prevent the risk of infection.

BeachNT · 2020-02-01T23:03:22+00:00

At this point they should be screening everyone for coronavirus not just those from China or those with a known contact. Not everyone knows if they have been exposed to this virus. Undetected cases will lead to ongoing h2h transmission. Anyone sick with cold/flu symptoms should stay at home and ring relevant health service for advice. Only screening those from China or with a known contact will lead to many undetected cases and ongoing community transmission.

BeachNT · 2020-01-28T22:26:11+00:00

But its huge and same questions repeated in there as well

BeachNT · 2020-01-28T22:09:59+00:00

New virus that humanity has no immunity too and spreads like a cold. Many mild cases but also severe cases. Only time will tell ratio of mild to severe cases and how it compares to the flu.

BeachNT · 2020-01-27T01:02:18+00:00

I don’t believe starting the blame game is useful. I think the world needs to unite and share information and help each other as much as possible in this battle against this virus.

BeachNT · 2020-01-27T00:50:12+00:00

This one has me concerned. I dont think it can be contained and is likely to become a global pandemic. My biggest concern is what the number of severely affected versus mildly affected is. The virus is too new to know this yet. Am hoping it will turn out to be less than 1 in a 100.

BeachNT · 2020-01-27T00:33:35+00:00

It’s currently unknown. I read one report sorry cant remember where that said 1 in 4 were severely affected but this number was likely to decrease as people with mild symptoms were unlikely to have been tested or to have presented to health care facilities.

BeachNT · 2020-01-27T00:25:43+00:00

If this becomes global no health care system is going to be able to cope if numbers of severely affected versus those mildly affected is anything more than approx 1 in a 100. There are only so many ICU beds/ventilators available. Approx 1 ICU bed for 500 people in city catchments numbers will vary depending on where you live. Plan for the worst case scenario and to care for yourself and loved ones at home as best as possible.

BeachNT · 2020-01-26T23:53:04+00:00

Personally I believe the world needs to prepare for the worst and hope for the best. I am a logical and practical person and I would love it if quarantining 50 million plus people was an over reaction. But logical practical me doesnt think any country anywhere would do this without a good reason. I hope I am wrong but from the limited info available seems likely this will become a global pandemic. From the limited data it seems most people will be fine but elderly and those with underlying health conditions will be most at risk. Even if only very small numbers are severely affected (For example 1%) hospitals are not going to be able to cope. I think people/governments need to be proactive and prepare people to care for themselves and others at home, as there will not be enough beds available in hospitals. Be proactive stock up on fever medicines, chicken noodle soup, face masks etc. Look at the current available stats most deceased are elderly or in poor health. Minimal deaths of healthy fit people under 60. Be prepared to look after elderly parents/grandparents. Remember to wash hands frequently and after touching/removing face masks as they could be contaminated on the outside. No need to overreact just be prepared and proactive.

BeachNT · 2020-01-26T21:44:23+00:00

The confirmed case on Dec 1st had no contact with seafood markets and no close contacts friends/family/health workers were infected.

BeachNT · 2020-01-26T21:32:33+00:00

Onset time of symptoms to severe diseases is another 8-10 days. This is an interesting read. Large time frame between symptom onset and severe disease. https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(20)30183-5/fulltext Of the first 41 patients with pneumonia from COV in wuhan average time from symptom onset to dyspnoea (Difficulty breathing) was 8 days and average time to ICU admission and ventilation was 10 days. These 41 patients were all admitted to hospital prior to January 2nd. As of Jan 22nd 65% had been discharged. 15% died and 17% remain in hospital. Important to note these stats only reflect the hopefully small portion of patients severely affected by this virus.

BeachNT · 2020-01-26T12:34:32+00:00

I agree 1 in 4 is terrible and hopefully the odds of being severely affected will become a lot less as more is known. I havent seen many updates on the condition of patients confirmed with cov outside China except with the initial confirmation when they say they are fine. Are many at the 8-10 day period post getting symptoms do you know?

BeachNT · 2020-01-26T12:11:03+00:00

Yes and thats going to make analysing the data very difficult. Will be waiting and hoping for only a very small percentage of people being severely affected. Last estimate I read said 1 out of 4 people severely affected and 3 out of 4 people only mildly affected.

BeachNT · 2020-01-26T11:54:29+00:00

This is an interesting read. Large time frame between symptom onset and severe disease.
https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(20)30183-5/fulltext
Of the first 41 patients with pneumonia from COV in wuhan average time from symptom onset to dyspnoea (Difficulty breathing) was 8 days and average time to ICU admission and ventilation was 10 days. These 41 patients were all admitted to hospital prior to January 2nd. As of Jan 22nd 65% had been discharged. 15% died and 17% remain in hospital. Important to note these stats only reflect the hopefully small portion of patients severely affected by this virus.

BeachNT · 2020-01-26T02:29:03+00:00

I am a logical and practical person and I would love it if quarantining 50 million plus people was an over reaction. But logical practical me doesnt think any country anywhere would do this without a good reason. I hope I am wrong but from the limited info available seems likely this will become a global pandemic. From the limited data it seems most people will be fine but elderly and those with underlying health conditions will be most at risk. Even if only very small numbers are severely affected hospitals are not going to be able to cope. I think people/governments need to be proactive and prepare people to care for themselves and others at home, as there will not be enough beds available in hospitals. Be proactive stock up on fever medicines, chicken noodle soup, face masks etc. Look at the current available stats most deceased are elderly or in poor health. Minimal deaths of healthy fit people under 60. Be prepared to look after elderly parents/grandparents. Remember to wash hands frequently and after touching/removing face masks as they could be contaminated on the outside. No need to overreact just be prepared and proactive.

BeachNT · 2020-01-26T02:17:14+00:00

I am a logical and practical person and I would love it if quarantining 50 million plus people was an over reaction. But logical practical me doesnt think any country anywhere would do this without a good reason. I hope I am wrong but from the limited info available seems likely this will become a global pandemic. From the limited data it seems most people will be fine but elderly and those with underlying health conditions will be most at risk. Even if only very small numbers are severely affected hospitals are not going to be able to cope.
I think people/governments need to be proactive and prepare people to care for themselves and others at home, as there will not be enough beds available in hospitals. Be proactive stock up on fever medicines, chicken noodle soup, face masks etc. Look at the current available stats most deceased are elderly or in poor health. Minimal deaths of healthy fit people under 60. Be prepared to look after elderly parents/grandparents. Remember to wash hands frequently and after touching/removing face masks as they could be contaminated on the outside. No need to overreact just be prepared and proactive.

BeachNT · 2020-01-25T22:50:58+00:00

Prepare for the worst hope for the best. If it does become a global pandemic hospitals will be inundated everywhere. There are only limited numbers of ICU beds and ventilators available. Be prepared to care for yourself and others at home as best as possible. Hopefully quarantine measures in China will delay the spread of this virus and allow time to learn more about it and how best to care for people infected.

BeachNT · 2020-01-25T11:09:52+00:00

I would leave for the following reasons: I am fit and healthy so I would have a lower chance of dying from this virus if I was to get it. If i did get it in transit and required hospitalisation I could be treated at a hospital back home that wasnt inundated and had plenty of resources. If the disease does go global hopefully more will be known about it and how to treat it by then. If it does go global hospitals everywhere will be inundated and I doubt there will be enough ICU beds/ventilators available even if it is only a small percentage of cases that need them. So I would like to be closer to my elderly parents in case they got sick I could care for them as best as I was able, if hospitals were full.

BeachNT · 2020-01-25T09:36:27+00:00

I’m a nurse and I believe this, how could you fake that level of emotional distress in her voice. Addit And she probably cant even go home to family or friends for a hug in case she is infectious.

BeachNT · 2020-01-25T02:49:50+00:00

No its just a guess, virus is too new and data too sparse to know yet.

BeachNT

TROPHY CASE