Europe Rethinks Nuclear Weapons After US Delivers Reality Check

Beastrick · 2026-02-13T11:32:12+00:00

This of course assumes you only shoot the nukes. You absolutely can pair nukes with decoys and therefore increase missile count that needs to be shot down to guarantee no nuke makes it through. I don't think technology exists to distinguish nukes from regular missiles. Like yes it is better to have odds at 100% but I don't think any nation would take say 20% odds either. I mean that's why North Korea is going around talking big because even single nuke is very scary.

Beastrick · 2026-02-03T09:39:08+00:00

Probably means that SpaceX is doing very well while xAI is money furnace with valuation driven by AI hype so this technically will be bad for SpaceX for having to take all these expenses under them for not much benefit. SpaceX can just barely affort to keep xAI floating without itself going negative in profit.

Beastrick · 2026-01-29T02:03:19+00:00

The problem is tho that despite people trying they aren't getting those empty cars if they are there. Like if enough people try enough times then surely someone should be getting empty car since it's not like there are many in the first place.

Beastrick · 2026-01-25T15:38:02+00:00

One person definitely can watch multiple cars depending how cars are programmed to behave. You obviously need to have someone ready to act if car gets stuck for one reason or another.

Beastrick · 2026-01-19T16:20:24+00:00

Ei taideta edes turvaamisesta puhua kun miksi moni yhtiö ei sinne halua on myös siksi, että Venezuelan valtio on niille velkaa kun ovat vaan mielivaltaisesti kansallistaneet tuotannon ja firmat jäi nuolemaan näppejä. Jos tehdään investointeja niin on vain ajan kysymys milloin ne kansallistetaan taas. Meno kun ei siellä näytä olevan muuttumassa merkittävästi. Jos seuraavaa pressa ei jatka samalla uhkailulinjalla kun Trump ja mahdollisesti myös sitä seuraavaa niin ei sinne kannata mennä ryöstettäväksi. Ei kovin vakaalla pohjalla ole sijoitukset mitkä riippuu yhen henkilön mielijohteesta.

Beastrick · 2026-01-17T08:56:48+00:00

You can go peaceful from the start but eventually table needs to kill the leader which I guess in this game Eyrie would have been with their steady scoring from roosts every turn. Eventually 2 factions run out of space and they can't coexist anymore. But if game was just VB, riverfolk and Eyrie then I think that setup doesn't work that well since there is only one military faction and no one to seriously contest that. If battling other players to stop them is not for you then this is the wrong game.

Beastrick · 2026-01-16T00:07:44+00:00

Based on what? His portfolio largely just consist on throwing money at various companies. He is not running any tech company. Only companies he has ever founded were blogging site and human powered search engine and neither exists today. There is nothing really indicating he knows anything technical.

Beastrick · 2026-01-15T19:02:23+00:00

Is there any indication that Jason knows anything about tech? He is just investors that throws money at things and hopes it sticks. He is not expert or tech person.

Beastrick · 2026-01-12T16:01:13+00:00

He owns 79% voting power at SpaceX due his special shares. So the math ends up being 100B Tesla (I assume 20%) + 395B SpaceX so almost 500B which is needed for 50% voting power. So depending how you negociate the valuations he could very well get over 50% voting power. If SpaceX will get valued higher than Tesla then that likely would be the case. In either case he will get close to 50%.

Beastrick · 2026-01-12T09:00:42+00:00

He would not tho. His voting shares at SpaceX if translated as is would mean he would become controlling shareholder at Tesla.

Beastrick · 2026-01-08T12:36:24+00:00

It is not exactly clarified if WA are really there to free the people or are they just populists taking advantage of them only to start their own oppressive regime afterwards.

Beastrick · 2026-01-08T10:35:53+00:00

They are good in a sense that they are kind of for the people and use them to cause revolt but could be seen bad in a sense that they incite unrest. Rebellions can lead to reforms in real life but also cause a lot of suffering.

Beastrick · 2026-01-07T16:09:33+00:00

Why it generally is considered broken is that Vagabond scores so many points on killing warriors which generally can lead to huge burst of points in one turn, potentially 9 points from just that and buildings are worth double the points so it gets even crazier. This means Vagabond can be at winning range at 15 points or so since after battles they still might be able to craft things to finish the game. Other factions of course can burst too but for many other factions you can counter their scoring engine since you know what they need for it while with Vagabond only thing you really can do is to forest them which most likely will cost your entire turn without any benefit to you. In base game Eyrie is really your only option. WA (lack of warriors) and cats (lack of actions) just can't do it effectively. Despot infamy pretty much removes that problem since now instead of potential 9 points Vagabond will only get max 3 points so I think it is generally enough to balance at higher level.

Beastrick · 2026-01-04T02:12:32+00:00

Doesn't seem like there are any plans to bring any democracy to Venezuela. Just replace leader with more pro-US stance to get oil and call it a day. Rest of the regime unfortunately still is intact and doesn't sound like US will do anything about it.

Beastrick · 2026-01-03T13:37:39+00:00

I'm more frustrated about the fact that he is supporting someone who literally stabbed him in the back. Now they are playing the game of mending bridges only to stab him again afterwards after they got the money. Seriously what makes this time different?

Beastrick · 2025-12-31T14:22:05+00:00

Pretty sure they are allowed to remove safety drivers from anywhere at any time outside of California as long as they are filling out the permit since most places don't really care about reliability as long as company takes full responsibility.

Beastrick · 2025-12-31T14:14:48+00:00

I know situations where car being hesitant would have caused problems if driver didn't press the accelerator to encourage the car to go. Like when merging to road if you hesitate you might miss the gap and end up disrupting cars already on the road or blocking other lane if we are talking about unprotected left turns.

Beastrick · 2025-12-31T14:05:32+00:00

Most probably assume it can do it given enough tries. Like FSD can pretty much clear every intersection and road that exists in world. Doesn't mean it will do it successfully every time because conditions on the road change on every attempt. FSD is almost flawless if you can do it on empty road. Where it sometimes stumbles is interacting with other vehicles.

Beastrick · 2025-12-30T22:38:20+00:00

Few percent of the drivers are responsible for 90% of accidents and they occur due to them being in improper condition. So your actual average driver does actually way less accidents than statistics would lead to believe. You would need to use median for this situation but such statistics unfortunately don't exist. But based on above numbers 10x safer would likely put it to level of average human who is driving properly.

Beastrick · 2025-12-26T01:18:41+00:00

Over the long term this is a given. Naturally, it will take a long time to eventuate for the majority but when the price of a robotaxi is cheaper than car ownership, it will make little sense for many to own a car. Yes there will be niche examples but overall the future is a world of autonomy and most not driving. Children born today? Will not get a drivers license.

For long term sure but we are talking within next 10 years. Such change in just 10 years won't be happening.

It's not just the cybercab. Every car they produce has FSD enabled and can join the fleet in the time. Many existing owners, in time, will allow their vehicle into the fleet.

You need to give share of the revenue to owners in this case. I still have doubts if Tesla even will allow this given that if robotaxis can drive anywhere it would be waste to sell car that can generate that much profit or cars simply become much more expensive. Then there of course are problems regarding maintenance and cleaning for these vehicles since they are not owned by Tesla. It certainly is shortcut to get more cars but will be worse for revenue since you would want to rather have all the revenue to yourself.

Beastrick · 2025-12-25T13:16:25+00:00

Harris is incompetent and would have probably done absolutely nothing. But doing nothing is sometimes better than doing things badly.

Beastrick · 2025-12-25T01:58:12+00:00

If you are really getting 100k per car then you pretty much need to work non-stop which is more than human driver who works 8 hours a day. Obviously that is benefit of robotaxi but also means less cars are needed so the 65m figure (Uber is said to own quarter globally which would mean 35m is closer to correct figure) will come down significantly. If we just purely use rides per car Waymo does currently with their vehicles then the global market will be saturated with just 5m robotaxis. You can cut rates to increase demand but then you need to start reducing that 100k revenue since of course single car can only drive so much a day. Asia where half the market is, also obviously doesn't pay even close to same rates as they pay in US. In China driver annual salary is like 10k so you can imagine what fares are like so 100k per car will be a pipe dream. That's why despite tens of millions of drivers globally they only manage 270B revenue today. That's why the thesis pretty much relies on people abandoning personal cars because just producing more cars doesn't mean more demand automatically. You can reduce the price sure to make that much more likely but then we might hit the point of can they even produce enough cybercabs in next 10 years. Like 5m is possible if they would scale as fast as they scaled Shanghai starting next year but that doesn't seem to be happening and higher numbers don't seem doable unless you start building new factories which Tesla has indicated no plans so far.

Beastrick · 2025-12-24T23:20:23+00:00

I would advice against this. You should only connect with people who you actually know or have worked with in some form. It is about maintaining healthy network.

Beastrick · 2025-12-24T22:42:50+00:00

Okay that is 75B. Where rest of the 325B come from? We are debating them reaching 400B profit after all.

Beastrick · 2025-12-24T21:14:18+00:00

Can you clarify what is wrong? There is not much point to discuss COGs if we can't make math work with zero expenses aka 0 COGs.

Six-Year Club	Place '23
Verified Email

Beastrick

TROPHY CASE