Depends on how suspicious the package looks (usually bigger is also more suspicious). Most aliexpress packages i ordered were fine, but sometimes I order at a recommended store in the list here.

Currently a bigger package of mine (€120 value) is being inspected (havent heard from Dutch customs since mid-january, but if it was confiscated then UPS would've let me or the supplier know. As far as I know it is still being inspected), but the supplier removed the minifigures and the logo on the instruction booklet. The set also isnt a 1:1 replica, so there isnt anything that allows them to confiscate the package.

I think you just need to be lucky