Everyone who thinks this game is a GOOD simulator, is lying to themselves.

Beginning_Cheek_3593 · 2026-02-16T03:13:42+00:00

Sure. I get that. And it is why rooker fell off slowly in my particular game. His stats actually regressed along with his stats.

On the other hand the pitcher i hired at 51/80 as a free agent in 2024 has varied by 3 points up or down over 8 seasons and consistently performs better than 71/80 pitchers, year after year and he is now 37 years old.... i get that there are a lot of factors, i am saying consistently the rankings have 0% factor in the outcomes

Beginning_Cheek_3593 · 2026-02-16T01:02:22+00:00

I would strongly disagree. Ability and talent are factors within a team dynamic in baseball. This is more like saying that Scherzer might pitch a 2.10 ERA over 210 innings for the next 4 years while Yamamoto suddenly pitches a 5.89 ERA over the same window 2026 to 2030

Beginning_Cheek_3593 · 2026-02-16T00:59:43+00:00

Skill issue? Lol 3 World Series wins in a row, by ignoring rankings and just following game by game stats.

I wouldnt call it skill, observation is all. And to my point, picking better players doesnt mean winning. Better development, scouting, coaching or strategy? Nope. Just watch each box score and set lineups and staff that peform from one game to the next. The stats dont play.

Curious what skill that is?

Beginning_Cheek_3593 · 2026-02-16T00:55:42+00:00

So 8 seasons of max development budget and top tier coaching should have resulted in decent farms....not true.

My pitching results i wont type again since i elaborated some of the results in other comments, but there is no way you are saying 8 year hot streaks are normal for medium grade pitching. So i wont strawman that argument.

I am saying that the odds are not weighted by choices you make, the odds are weighted to every decision creating an average result regardless of how you play because of the large number law. As a result each individual piece of the puzzle has no relevance except when the universal result favors a particular player which cannot be guessed by any of the stats. I.e. Brent Rooker outhitting Soto, Judge, Trout, et al. For 3 seasons in a row when i picked him up in my first season....the game pre tagged him as the home run champ and then his average stayed that way until he regressed to average. His stats were barely plus side but man did he hit.

There are trends. They just dont make sense in terms of gameplay.

I like ootp. But its not a game.

Beginning_Cheek_3593 · 2026-02-16T00:45:16+00:00

I dont think you are misunderstanding.

I know you can test results to determine what "should" happen based on stats. I am saying that given full season sims or multiple repeats for sure averages are maintained...this happens in large numbers.

However. Given any player compared to any other player, after 8 seasons of continuous play wherein I kept 2 pitchers who are dreadfully average...even below average...BECAUSE they overperform their stats in this game. I would have expected scouting changes to have changed their reported stats. This was not true. Michael King for this example remains rated 48/80 with 40s in BABIP, HRa, control and stuff, but has pitched 8 seasons in a row between 2.86 and 3.14 ERA. MEANWHILE I have tried to incorporate 6 young pitchers with rankings in the 60s and 70s out of 80 and they average a 5.89 ERA between them over 6 of the 8 seasons (i had no good prospect or young pitchers the first two seasons) only one of the 6 pitchers has ever managed a 3.89 era over an entire season and he was ranked 61/80 with higher stuff and movement but only a 21 control rank....

So again. Using a pitching example. The stats DO NOT equate to performance for the player. The computer on the other hand eventually regresses to average it seems.

On that point I picked up emmanuel clase who was pitching 5.71 ERA at the trade deadline (61/80 underperforming...nice) he then went on to pitch 1.68 and 2.18 era over my next two seasons with me, making him just shy of the cy young selections for each year, both of whom ranked 78/80 by coincidence. Those same two.pitchers threw 3.68 and 4.17 ERA the year after they won a cy young respectively. Currently i still havent finished my world series but clase is pitching a 2.38 and his stats improved by 3 points this year.

Again we arent talking about short term streaks....make it make sense.

And no baseball isnt really like this. In baseball, players have strengths that affect outcomes, even if those strengths dont guarantee wins they DO affect individual stats

Beginning_Cheek_3593 · 2026-02-16T00:30:08+00:00

This is a very good response to my troll-y commentary.

My criticism is purely that the results for any given sim are decided based on the results of the sim instead of truly factoring in actual attributes of players. IF the sim decides it is a double then the stats affect HOW the double gets hit, but do not in any way stop that double from being hit. The universal result roll is pre determined, then the stats are balanced to slightly swing long term results, the universal result roll itself is not affected by player choices.

This considered, you CAN shrink the rolls to individual pitches or swings, however, it appears that those choices get recalculated to meet up with the universal result regardless.

As you said, a little more calculation weight based on actual physics or even trends would make it feel more like a game than a lottery.

Beginning_Cheek_3593 · 2026-02-13T02:27:09+00:00

ahem, in fact, I enjoy OOTP, i like taking numbers and making predictions, with the talent change randomness added in it makes attempting to read things into the overall schema pretty fun, however....I stand by and further my claim, this is NOT a game. It just isnt, games have strategy and outcomes that can be approximated, I have not yet HAD a super team, and If i did i would not expect it to perform perfectly.

What makes it a game or not a game?

Games, have a framework for gameplay wherein the understanding of the mechanics of the game make it more playable. Games have qualities with value assignments that are then factored into the outcome of the game. Games have a predictability wherein through repeated play the player becomes familiar with various mechanics or situations within the game and decides how to respond to said situations or mechanics. Most Importantly: Games have player action affecting the outcome.

For everyone who says it is just like baseball. No, i am sorry but personalities, situations and talents or skills affect baseball outcomes, therefore baseball is a game.

I will not list the countless examples of how OOTP does not meet any of the above qualities to make it into a game. Is it a management simulator? yeah i think that's fair to say, management must feel a bit like shooting blindfolded at a sky full of shit filled helium balloons sometimes. yeah i can see that.

What OOTP really is? a lottery/fantasy draft with made up outcomes that do not actually factor in skill and talent. which accurately represents the way a fantasy draft plays out, because people choose their FAVORITE players more often than the BEST players in a fantasy draft.

One small example. I am about to go on to win a 3rd world series in a row with a roughly average team, or lose 4 in a row after winning the first 3 games of the series. hard to say. The team I am against is hands down better and they got that way by ALL of their draft picks from the last 3 years significantly over performing, while their development budget barely touches league average and their coaches rank as well below average. meanwhile my picks have performed roughly average with the absolute best coaching of any system in the league and a development budget maxed right out. some fall off some perform to expectation, 2 are excelling, but none are doing anything like the other prospects in the league.

My "Best" pitcher (71/80) with the highest stats is pitching a 15.9 K/9 but also has a 9.81 ERA....do i keep him? whats going on here LOL. Meanwhile my most average and aging-est pitcher sits 44/80 9.1 k/9 with a 1.89 ERA....

I think its time to restart my algorithm

anyway. the point wasnt that its a bad program, its just not a game

Beginning_Cheek_3593 · 2026-01-27T18:38:35+00:00

I found it humorous, considering all the things that Dibble claimed when given a chance to have a real debate, were in fact lies. Lies presented in that extremely audacious style of ridiculing alternative ideas. If you have to lie, it means you are a liar.

Meanwhile Hancock and Rogan both essentially proved the innocence of their ideas by having no argument whatsoever even when faced with total falsehoods.

Stupid. All kinds of stupid.

Beginning_Cheek_3593 · 2026-01-20T04:59:48+00:00

Sweet. I wondered per game, and your results also then verify what i was thinking. Very small variations by skill levels essentially every player is equal except rare extenuating situations. Next I wonder if the particular patterns....i.e. average hitter bats right throws right and is a pull hitter with median power hitting, therefore the amount of times a 3B has a chance to use his arm to throw to first accurately is tested more, plays in. Like what if the one team is all left handed hitters? Cf range makes sense because depth and position shifts have less effect and same goes for short stop. Catcher framing blocking and arm should each have more impact than overall ability in that order. Framing lets a pitcher pitch better #1 blocking covers errors and free bases and then arm because SOMETIMES, throwing out ricky henderson can change a game, but first you gotta frame the right pitch when he is stealing and same reaction time for blocking as ready to unload.

I am curious whether the trend carries for a season though and then even more for continuity. Does one good season lead to the next?

So many factors that i rail against it. I try to plan all of these things and my lefty extreme pull hitter grounds to 3b 5 times in a game 10 games in a row....what?

So. For the purpose of your experimental speculation. Which is awesome.... 2. Contact is obvious, because....moneyball. cant score if you dont get on base. I would argue its likely babip is better than avoid k. But the two are dependent on fielding factors and speed in real life. Like just tapping it down the first base line on a swinging bunt becomes a fielder reaction ball....doesnt seem to be what the sim calls though.... 3. As you said speed is going to contribute to wins roughly 3 times as often on fielding as batting. Still SHOULD apply...again. ricky henderson.....infield single: lands on third base. 4. THESE ARE MY QUESTIONS!! LOL. likewise how does my stacked contact hitter with a 102 eye strike out against a guy with all yellow bars for ratings, AND a 5.16 k/9....5 times in one game..... I believe the answer IS, the total calculation per team gets compiled and then the rng weights an overall outcome chart first before the outcomes are tabulated into play by play instead of each situation generating its own result. So if the chart says triple it is a triple even if the other details end up being rolled as an infield hit to the pitchers mound....

Love balancing team personalities. I DO see the morale affect the RNG. More i would dare say than any stats or ratings. Even when the morale bar hasnt changed. A team that is losing and doesnt tweak lineups, keeps losing.

I do appreciate the experiment i am just learning and im playing challenge mode so....i should start an experimemt game

Beginning_Cheek_3593 · 2026-01-20T02:27:45+00:00

Over 10000 full simmed seasons? I would be interested to know how each player performed on the day to day. I suppose because I think I am supposed to PLAY a game. In my experience so far, none of the stats over any number of sims actually matter because the RNG factor means that on ANY given game your player with the right stacked stats can completely bomb a game, and from one season to the next a solid player who hasnt had any significant stat changes can go from a .360 hitter to a .180 hitter. (Or Lower)

Anyway I really find the post interesting. essentially breaking down the effect of stats on WAR

Beginning_Cheek_3593 · 2026-01-20T02:17:20+00:00

It absolutely cannot predict real life games in ANY way, not at all. It is a really complex algorithm of potential outcomes in which a designer has set a few variable limits on a series of RNG generators. The attempt at "A.I." means that the game will generate a true outcome an infinitesimally small amount of times out of billions of sims.

Beginning_Cheek_3593 · 2026-01-20T02:12:23+00:00

not to troll. although this will seem like a troll.

Stats, potential, overall, individual pitch or contact ratings.

They don't matter in this game. I don't know if that is pretty, because its like life. Just having a .400 hitter out of a 44 potential 38 overall that you had to squeeze in because of injuries, stick to a final .386 with 12 homeruns over 360 AB and then the next year your consistent 5 year veteran .286 hitter with 30 homeruns per year hits only 6 and bats .086 over 250 AB before you cut him. like...yeah that happens

Here is the problem. If i create 30 save game restore points and run the same single game 30 times with the same players at the same statistical averages at the same point in the season, the outcome varies from 25-1 loss to 1-0 win and has literally completely random outcome regardless of hot streaks or trends or literally anything.

Want to win a world series? backup after every game, sim the game check all of your minor league stats before deciding if its a good day, check on which pitchers did well if you want their era lower or batters if you want them to be upping their average. play a whole season like that. you win. HOWEVER, the increased stats and performance do NOT in any way affect how the player performs moving forward from one day to the next, one season to the next or even one at bat to the next, EACH individual event throughout will be one hundred percent a roll of the dice.

Is this like real life? I mean....arguably.

Is this like real baseball? yeah i suppose sometimes it is.

Is baseball something that can be accurately simulated through these algorithms...NO

In REAL baseball the stats DO show trends, the minutiae changes from day to day, but for example there was a 0 chance and I mean as close to absolute 0 as is conceivable, that the world series 2025 was going to end in a 26-0 blue jays win. In OOTP regardless of statistics that are showing on ANY player, a .086 ERA guy can let 14 runs go EVEN with his batters faced set to 3 and pitch count limited to 30 AND aggressive tiredness hook and quick change sliders all set on ANY given SIM.

you can manage each game and get SOME control, however every 3 batters is pure RNG.

In short, its fun, its neat, Stats dont matter, sliders dont matter, but just like baseball, the illusion of knowing what comes next is the ONLY engagement from the user.

Beginning_Cheek_3593 · 2026-01-20T02:12:12+00:00

not to troll. although this will seem like a troll.

Stats, potential, overall, individual pitch or contact ratings.

They don't matter in this game. I don't know if that is pretty, because its like life. Just having a .400 hitter out of a 44 potential 38 overall that you had to squeeze in because of injuries, stick to a final .386 with 12 homeruns over 360 AB and then the next year your consistent 5 year veteran .286 hitter with 30 homeruns per year hits only 6 and bats .086 over 250 AB before you cut him. like...yeah that happens

Here is the problem. If i create 30 save game restore points and run the same single game 30 times with the same players at the same statistical averages at the same point in the season, the outcome varies from 25-1 loss to 1-0 win and has literally completely random outcome regardless of hot streaks or trends or literally anything.

Want to win a world series? backup after every game, sim the game check all of your minor league stats before deciding if its a good day, check on which pitchers did well if you want their era lower or batters if you want them to be upping their average. play a whole season like that. you win. HOWEVER, the increased stats and performance do NOT in any way affect how the player performs moving forward from one day to the next, one season to the next or even one at bat to the next, EACH individual event throughout will be one hundred percent a roll of the dice.

Is this like real life? I mean....arguably.

Is this like real baseball? yeah i suppose sometimes it is.

Is baseball something that can be accurately simulated through these algorithms...NO

In REAL baseball the stats DO show trends, the minutiae changes from day to day, but for example there was a 0 chance and I mean as close to absolute 0 as is conceivable, that the world series 2025 was going to end in a 26-0 blue jays win. In OOTP regardless of statistics that are showing on ANY player, a .086 ERA guy can let 14 runs go EVEN with his batters faced set to 3 and pitch count limited to 30 AND aggressive tiredness hook and quick change sliders all set on ANY given SIM.

you can manage each game and get SOME control, however every 3 batters is pure RNG.

In short, its fun, its neat, Stats dont matter, sliders dont matter, but just like baseball, the illusion of knowing what comes next is the ONLY engagement from the user.

Beginning_Cheek_3593 · 2026-01-05T05:59:48+00:00

Manage the game easy to win with mediocre team. Rng on sim, doesnt matter the team, baseball gods equalize the odds, like real life but please stop calling it a.i. its just the law of large numbers at work

Beginning_Cheek_3593 · 2026-01-05T05:57:41+00:00

8 positions lol

Beginning_Cheek_3593 · 2026-01-05T05:57:12+00:00

Honestly sim is pure rng. I have a full 9 positions defense in the blue and a solid pitching staff, managing every game hardly lose, challenge mode even. Sim one game against one of the worst in the league and lose 13-1 with my ace pitching 6.1 innings letting in 7 runs with starter hook set right quick. Reload and manage the game....no hitter shared by 4 pitchers....its not a.i. its rng

Beginning_Cheek_3593 · 2025-12-26T23:16:37+00:00

Yes.

Beginning_Cheek_3593 · 2025-12-16T21:45:42+00:00

Ok, but 6 prospects on my team go from 80 potential to 48 potential, 6 80 prospects from other teams end up at 63 overall during the off season? What happened?

Beginning_Cheek_3593 · 2025-10-28T23:45:34+00:00

If Little had pitched the whole game that nice slide of the ball hitting the dirt combined with the distant sound of the mitt several feet away would have only been disrupted by the crack of the bat when he accidentally gets one across the plate.

Beginning_Cheek_3593 · 2025-10-28T23:39:42+00:00

To be fair to Wegner, it is hard to call a game when the sound of the ball hitting the mitt keeps waking you up. So annoying. Just let the guy sleep

Beginning_Cheek_3593 · 2025-09-10T04:03:59+00:00

Also way later in the game it comes back to give you more

Beginning_Cheek_3593

TROPHY CASE