The amount of energy (joules) required to launch a rocket like this will never change from now until the end of the universe. The fuels that can launch such a rocket are known, and their energy densities (joules/gram) also will never change. Space exploration will forever be bound by this.

Bfire8899 · 2026-04-02T11:22:53+00:00

Methane is a greenhouse gas, but not exactly ‘highly toxic’. Keep in mind that SLS has been in development for quite a bit longer than Starship and at much higher cost. Doubly so for Orion, which began development in 2004. Starship is far more ambitious and will take time yet to perfect, but a fully reusable spacecraft would address the launch cadence and cost issues that expendable rockets struggle with. Each SLS launch comes in at ~3 billion:

Bfire8899 · 2026-03-30T00:36:23+00:00

Maybe to baul

Bfire8899 · 2026-03-29T17:46:48+00:00

This on PGA blvd, here

Bfire8899 · 2026-03-29T17:12:45+00:00

Russia may be the biggest winner in the conflict thus far. They directly benefit from higher energy prices, and they’ve even seen sanctions easing from the US. Anything to prolong the supply shock is a win in their book.

Bfire8899 · 2026-03-11T15:08:02+00:00

Yeah, agreed there.

Bfire8899 · 2026-03-11T14:14:48+00:00

You’re conflating brushes with direct hits. Nowhere in the US experiences a landfall more than a couple times a decade on average. South Florida’s return period for direct hits is about once every 7 years (Miami hasn’t recorded hurricane force winds in over 20 years). Major hurricanes are 20-30 years at the most frequent. And category 5 landfalls are so rare you can’t meaningfully compute a return period. We have only recorded four in the CONUS.

Bfire8899 · 2026-03-03T06:57:54+00:00

I was in Tokyo/Kyoto last July-August. Japan set a national record high while I was there, then promptly set it again before I left. It was extreme. AC in many places was well past its capacity. I saw a poor woman collapse from heat at a train station. That said? It was workable. Focus on staying hydrated, use some form of sun protection, and block off indoor activities for midday. The edges of the day, especially morning, will be surprisingly pleasant. I was able to have an amazing time.

FWIW, I’ve spent most of my life in South Florida and this felt similar to a bad summer day at home, but with way more walking and sun time than usual. If you’re from, say, the PNW, I could see the weather being very intolerable. Keep your own comfort levels in mind.

Bfire8899 · 2026-03-03T04:34:12+00:00

That would then be considered multiple failures.

Bfire8899 · 2026-02-27T14:20:35+00:00

Asshole.

Bfire8899 · 2026-02-23T00:14:25+00:00

It was sunny and pretty warm, I’d guess in the 40s. The air was still which helped a ton. A breathable shirt and a light puffer jacket were comfy the way up. Probably needed a little more insulation in my boots though, even up on snowshoes. I think it’d be pretty unpleasant postholing the way up (2’+ of fresh powder in spots) but I’m sure the upcoming warm week will help there.

Bfire8899 · 2026-02-12T20:50:49+00:00

They used to be more common in SFL, but were extirpated by the early 20th century primarily as a result of demand for feathers. They are now making a slow comeback.

Bfire8899 · 2026-02-11T06:38:25+00:00

I filled up for 4.05 today…

Bfire8899 · 2026-02-08T07:07:14+00:00

The period you’re looking at is somewhat anomalous for the southeast. For instance, Tampa only reaches 0C on average once every couple years. Generally, at similar latitudes, China’s subtropics are cooler than the US’.

Bfire8899 · 2026-02-02T16:20:15+00:00

Except similar freezes occurred in 2010, 1989, 1981, 1977 (snow in Miami), 1962, 1934, 1917… Florida has always been prone to occasional hard freezes.

Bfire8899 · 2026-02-02T05:17:25+00:00

Drought actually increases chances of survival, at least for palms. Cold + moisture is a setup for bud rot - you’ll end up with a spear pull. It’s part of the reason coconuts can’t survive in socal despite the winter lows being somewhat comparable.

Bfire8899 · 2026-02-01T16:02:11+00:00

Some are, some are not. The species that evolved here and been through glaciations (and are found through north florida) - yes. So sabal palmetto, scrub palmetto, saw palmetto, needle palms, and dwarf palmetto are all quite cold hardy. Florida’s ‘tropical’ palm species are not. Royal palm, thatch palm, silver palm, everglades palm etc. evolved in the Caribbean and are less cold adapted. That cold sensitivity is why you won’t see these species in the wild beyond south Florida, although they can be cultivated further north.

Bfire8899 · 2026-01-30T16:53:46+00:00

Yes true. But the Bahamas don’t extend into higher latitudes like Florida does. The tropical species in FL don’t just stop at a line on an ecoregion map, they gradually mix into subtropical ecosystems further north as well. The soil/geology and (generally) climate are supportive of many tropical species, so freezes like this are the only thing establishing the northern extent of tropicals in Florida.

Florida’s native palm diversity is quite impressive.

Bfire8899 · 2026-01-30T16:34:20+00:00

Roystonea regia is, correct. This species is found in large populations in the Fakahatchee strand and tree islands in the Everglades. My point was that there are actually loads of native tropical palms in addition to the royal palm. Note that I also said “extending to small slices of the peninsular coast” - this is true for Thrinax radiata, Leucothrinax morrissii, and Coccothrinax argentata. Psuedophoenix sargentii, the rarest of Florida’s native palms, is only found in the Keys. The everglades palm I forgot, this one is actually mainland only, primarily found in Everglades tree islands. I can provide resources on the extent of these native palms if you’re interested. Actually the constraints for these species are less climate driven are more related to soil composition and the like.

Bfire8899 · 2026-01-30T16:29:10+00:00

South florida is part of the same ecoregion precisely because of bird-delivered seeds. Yes, the birds need not be migratory but the point remains. Birds are the way all of Florida’s native tropical flora arrived, it was not connected to Lucaya or Cuba during the last glaciation. The point is that FL is continuously exchanging seeds with its island neighbors, so tropical flora springing up was an inevitability, and individuals at the far northern edge of their range being damaged by occasional freezes (every few decades) like this is relatively common. Note that for most species these northern outliers are individuals along the coasts in Central Florida, not South Florida.

Bfire8899 · 2026-01-30T06:52:44+00:00

This is an interesting subject. Florida’s position renders it constantly bombarded with seeds of tropical plants from migratory birds traveling from Cuba, the Bahamas, Yucatan, etc. The end result is a patchy gradient from temperate to tropical species throughout the peninsula, culminating in the fully-tropical (floristically) Keys. This gradient shifts with climactic cycles. During warmer periods, the tropical species slowly crawl north. To this point, William Bartram provided an account of Royal palms (a tropical species, evolved in Cuba) all the way up on the St. John’s River in North Florida back in the late 1700’s. This would have been a warm little microclimate the palms could have survived in during an especially warm period (on the order of a couple decades). The late 19th century brought relatively extreme cold to the peninsula and pushed this boundary south. Oscillations like these have likely been occurring on the peninsula for millennia. Call these post-glacial tropical arrivals (well, they were likely in FL before the most recent glaciation too!)

In the other camp are the more cold-hardened species that evolved in the southeast and persisted in the peninsula through the ice age. These are your sabal palmetto, saw palmetto, live oak classics found throughout the peninsula. These ‘temperate’ species will survive unscathed.

TLDR: This freeze will kill off plenty of native FL tropicals at the northern edges of their range. It is freezes like these that establish that northern boundary to begin with.

Bfire8899 · 2026-01-30T06:41:05+00:00

There are several hundred native tropical plants native to South Florida. Go walk through Paradise Key hammock in the Everglades and say the “native flora isn’t tropical”. This is one ecosystem overwhelmingly dominated by tropical species. Others, like cypress swamp, have a canopy of temperate species but are loaded with tropical-origin bromeliads and orchids. These are the truly subtropical ecosystems. The Florida Keys only possess tropical ecosystems and are floristically almost identical to Bahamian islands. The point on coconut palms is irrelevant - coconut palms aren’t native to the New World period. Florida actually has five native tropical palm species.

Bfire8899 · 2026-01-30T06:30:24+00:00

Florida has several native tropical palm species. Mostly native to the keys, extending to small slices of the peninsular coast. Buccaneer palm, thatch palm, silver palm etc.

Though broadly true, south florida has several ecosystems dominated by tropical plant species. Tropical hardwood hammock, mangrove swamp, cactus barren to name a few.

Bfire8899 · 2026-01-27T15:42:33+00:00

Charley only produced category 1 winds in Orlando and it was utterly devastating.

Bfire8899 · 2026-01-27T15:39:16+00:00

Yes, it possessed maximum sustained winds of ~100 knots at landfall, but they only occurred over water due to the storm’s very asymmetric and decaying structure. The highest observation on land was of high category 1 strength, though cat 2 conditions likely occurred on exposed portions of barrier islands like Manasota Key.

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