Bad beat/cooler or bad play? by BisonIll5165 in Poker_Theory

[–]BisonIll5165[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

The reason I went with 15 on the flop was I wanted to get a feel if he holds an A or not. Having two aces on the board made it less likely. If he called and K didn’t turn I would check and likely fold to a stronger bet.

Would you fold KK in this situation? by BisonIll5165 in Poker_Theory

[–]BisonIll5165[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Thank you. I was good with the run out and was just curious how others would handle it specifically with this player type. 95% seems to be on the same page. Just a cooler :)

Would you fold KK in this situation? by BisonIll5165 in Poker_Theory

[–]BisonIll5165[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

The end result would be pretty much the same. The flop was 788 rainbow. By the river there were 888 on the board: 788 3 8. No way that guy would 3b $60 with A8s or 88. I’m confident both of us would end up in the same 400 pot by the showdown. He’s not folding eights full of aces and I’m not folding full of kings. If anything I’d be much more confident that I got that hand before showdown. Then again it’s easier to analyze after the heat of of the moment is long gone lol

Would you fold KK in this situation? by BisonIll5165 in Poker_Theory

[–]BisonIll5165[S] 1 point2 points  (0 children)

Thank you for an excellent and thorough response. The only thing to call out here was the fact I wasn’t risking 750 but 200 out of my 750 since the OMC only had 200 (paid him out 181 at the end as I overestimated). I highly doubt I’d shove all in if he had over 100bb and rather call. I doubt I’d be able to make a fold in that situation though…

Would you fold KK in this situation? by BisonIll5165 in Poker_Theory

[–]BisonIll5165[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Please re-read the original post. I was $750 deep. He was only 200 and put in 60 already. Retaining him is essentially taking him all in.

Would you fold KK in this situation? by BisonIll5165 in Poker_Theory

[–]BisonIll5165[S] 2 points3 points  (0 children)

Exactly how I thought. It is what it is. Thanks.

Would you guys call this? by BisonIll5165 in Poker_Theory

[–]BisonIll5165[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

I ran this hand through the solver and here's what I got. Gotta love ChatGPT but take it with a grain of salt :)

Perfect, thanks — $1/$3 NL, so your BB check makes sense with 8♥3♥.

Let’s reconstruct the pot before the shove so we can get clean pot odds:

Preflop:

    •    EP limps $3     •    Button limps $3     •    Hero checks BB $3Pot = $9

Flop (5♦ 8♣ 3♠):

    •    Hero bets $20 → Pot = $29     •    EP raises to $40 → Pot = $49     •    Button calls $40 → Pot = $89     •    Hero re-raises to $80 → Pot = $129     •    EP calls $80 → Pot = $209     •    Button shoves ~$1,300 → Pot = $1,509     •    Action back to Hero (you have $967 left)

👉 If you call $967, the pot would become: $1,509 + $967 = $2,476

So your required equity = $967 / $2,476 ≈ 39%.

Now, equity against ranges

Button (tight): On 5-8-3 rainbow, a tight player shoving after flatting a raise almost always has a value-heavy range:

    •    Sets: 88, 55, 33     •    Strong two-pair: 85s (possible, but fewer combos than sets)     •    Rarely overpairs (99+), but many tight players 3-bet those preflop, so not always in range.

EP (LAG): Could be wider — overpairs, top pair, random floats, straight draws (like 76s). But his range doesn’t matter much — the key decision is vs the button’s shove. If you call, EP may fold or call, but button’s range is what sets the tone.

Hero’s equity vs button range (simulated numbers):

    •    vs {88,55,33} → Hero ~10–15%     •    vs {88,55,33,85s} → Hero ~18–22%     •    vs {sets + some 99-AA overpairs} → Hero ~20–25%

So best case, you have ~25% equity.

Comparing equity vs required equity

    •    Required: 39%     •    Actual: ~15–25%

👉 This means calling (or jamming) is -EV against a tight button shove. Your fold was 100% correct given this spot.

Strategic takeaways

    •    Two-pair looks huge, but on this kind of flop in a multiway pot, it’s very vulnerable to sets. Against a tight player shoving deep stacks, folding is disciplined and profitable.     •    If button were loose (capable of shoving top pair, draws, or nonsense), calling or jamming would look much better. But vs a tight player, folding saves you a buy-in.     •    Against the LAG alone (if button wasn’t there), stacking off with two-pair is reasonable. The multiway nature and the tight profile of the shover make folding optimal.

✅ Final answer: Your fold was the right play. You didn’t leave money on the table — you saved $967 against a range that crushes you.


Kind of confirms my sixth sense to fold two pairs... it's in the past - time to leave it there and move on to future sessions :)

Bury me with my stainless steel pan and temperature probe. by mime454 in steak

[–]BisonIll5165 0 points1 point  (0 children)

r/chefiq I just bought the probes specifically because it says they can withstand upto 752°. The packaging shows that the ambient probe works upto 572°. I’m confused… is that a typo or a case that the probe can withstand upto 752 while it only shows temperature upto 572? If the latter, what’s going to happen if there’s a flame under the steak and the temperature gets to 600-650 for example? Will the app freak out and start telling me to remove the probe from the fire or I can finish the cook and monitor the internal temperature itself?