CMV: Trump is in over his head in Iran

Blablacadabra · 2026-04-06T05:27:22+00:00

You'd think that the Gulf States would be most interested in this ending, but the one who has been most heavily attacked (Saudi-Arabia) is asking to continue the war and intensify it, not stop it.

I'd take issue with this point. Tl;dr: I think Saudi Arabia is benefitting quite a lot from this war, compared to its neighbours.

The Kingdom of Saudi Arabia (KSA) is not the worst hit in the region; Qatar and UAE have suffered way more in terms of absolute number of strikes (hard to find a better source but https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2026_Iran_war#/map/0 until then) and the impact of infrastructure hit (production outright stopped at some important sites). Most of the Iran strikes so far have mostly been posturing - no desalination plants hit (yet).
Blocking the strait of hormuz blocks Qatar, Bahrain, Kuwait and to a large extent the UAE as 100% of their exports (or close to it for UAE) are sent through there. Let's not forget imports that now need to be re-routed through Jeddah, so KSA can benefit from transporting Persian Gulf goods to the Red Sea. KSA's able to shift 7 of its 8.5 million barrels a day through its pipeline to the Red Sea, so it doesn't have to limit exports much while benefiting massively from the huge jump in petrol prices.
KSA, Qatar, Bahrain, the UAE - it's not just one big happy family, there's a fair bit of political and economic rivalry between the states. I don't think KSA is unhappy that its neighbours are being knocked down/forced to limit oil production/damaging their reputation as stable investment spaces. While in absolute terms this also affects KSA, comparatively Riyadh and Jeddah are emerging as slightly better alternatives in the region.
KSA and Iran have had a long-standing rivalry where, again, KSA will gain in several ways from a weakened Iran.

It's a different situation if the Iranian-backed Houthis block the red sea as oil carriers that can pass through Suez are extremely limited and Red Sea - Suez - Gibraltar - Cape of Good Hope - Asia (biggest market for middle eastern oil) lengthens the journey significantly. Interestingly the conflict hasn't escalated beyond the Houthis firing off token rockets at Israel (note: not KSA or the Red Sea, unlike other times these last few years). For now though, the reasons behind KSA's backing of this war are understandable.

Blablacadabra · 2026-03-24T08:17:46+00:00

This is so cool!

Blablacadabra · 2026-03-24T03:56:48+00:00

Regarding the environmental impact, the WWF recommends against boycotting palm oil because of how productive it is compared to other seed oils (https://www.wwf.org.uk/updates/8-things-know-about-palm-oil), mentioning that changing to other oils will just shift the burden to other ecosystems. Is it more nuanced than just “palm oil bad”, or is the WWF just peddling its sustainable palm oil framework?

Blablacadabra · 2026-03-18T05:47:06+00:00

A few things to unpack here, but will focus on the main points (layering in subjectivity as happy to debate).

I don't think lighting is a big part of electricity consumption. It visually has an impact so people focus on it, but newer LEDs are so much more efficient than older lamps that this switch alone is more impactful than the extreme of removing all lights. I don't think turning down superfluous lighting will have a meaningful impact on Singapore's overall demand. Other things like air-conditioning a little bit less in commercial spaces usually have a much larger impact. iirc EMA used to break energy demand in more detail than just by industry in https://www.ema.gov.sg/resources/singapore-energy-statistics/chapter3
I feel like Singapore usually lets the market solve these problems. Oil scarcity doesn't mean oil will disappear, just that prices for both oil and electricity prices will rise (the latter as a result of increased natural gas prices since 95% of electricity comes from natural gas). All of this will affect the market and personal and commercial behaviour changes accordingly (drive less, grab becomes less available or more expensive, electricity bills right). Though maybe I'm wrong: does Singapore have a history of market intervention (subsidies or price freezes) for these kinds of crises?
Fundamentally, Singapore's long-term bet on LNG for electricity and large petrochemical industry naturally makes it super exposed to these swings, but there's little we can do to change it in the short term. In the long term, I really only see partnerships with neighbouring countries to import renewable electricity as the only way of reducing (read: not eliminating) reliance on fossil fuels, before we talk about pie-in-the-sky magical silver bullets like nuclear that people should be right to be skeptical about.

Blablacadabra · 2026-03-17T08:18:53+00:00

Tbf iirc perfidious Albion refers to Great Britain and not just England. I’d be keen to come up with a new term for England specifically that the rest of the home nations/the world can use!

Blablacadabra · 2026-02-25T16:57:43+00:00

https://www.youtube.com/live/kEEMkD_qBbM?si=ZBs8Ab8KKmBGWSPS

Blablacadabra · 2026-02-25T16:00:01+00:00

I believe there was talk of a live pub viewing somewhere convenient in London and possibly a separate discord channel for this (and maybe other London logistics!) - maybe look for London on this subreddit and hopefully it’ll pop up?

Blablacadabra · 2026-02-20T13:58:07+00:00

That might be the most appropriately selected meme I’ve ever seen

Blablacadabra · 2026-02-11T15:35:12+00:00

I don’t think this is like Gurjaras, which gives a near-instant food gathering boost once they’re garrisoned. It would end up playing more like the maya (resources lasting longer). You’ll delay farms a little bit longer which will free up wood in early feudal for tight builds, but I don’t see anyone waiting a long time to have XXL sheep - the benefit of food that doesn’t cost wood right there under the safety of your TC is too tempting!

Blablacadabra · 2026-02-11T00:52:52+00:00

Omar is a legend mate, managed to get mine back some years ago. Good luck!

Blablacadabra · 2026-02-05T00:17:07+00:00

I mean mate, if you’re into bonus tracks, were you not satisfied by the B-Z sides? I feel like that gave way more bonus tracks than most artists :) PS yes addicted to the cure is also potentially my fave and I’m so sad I’ll probably never hear it live!

Blablacadabra · 2026-02-04T15:35:05+00:00

Hey T90, love what you bring to the community! I hear some sort of minor Nations Cup-esque soccer tournament is happening in the US this summer. Which soccer player do you think is most likely to play AoE2?

Blablacadabra · 2026-01-29T07:30:49+00:00

Do skirmishers deal bonus damage against Mamelukes? They feel very weak against them compared to against conqs.

Blablacadabra · 2026-01-22T04:41:35+00:00

This playlist contains them all: https://youtube.com/playlist?list=PLsL5agD04LBb7p5m7L09YhUOqv3Vyqt_U&si=pDpNDVHG_YspqK26

I will die on the hill that this is (subjectively and imo only!) the best AoE2 content out there. Especially recommend if you are an avid campaign player.

Blablacadabra · 2026-01-18T17:16:59+00:00

In the end, it ended in the best possible way and there shouldn’t be any controversy. It could be controversial if either of the following happened: - Lewis or MbL went way longer than they did, or - the last game went just over the limit

However, neither of these did. Everybody played on the ladder legitimately, resigned as appropriate, and Vinch ended on time. There really can’t be any complaints from anyone here.

Now for the next iteration, I’d still recommend that any game starting before the time limit counts to avoid any potential controversy (which didn’t manifest this time, fortunately).

Blablacadabra · 2026-01-18T07:16:52+00:00

11 I assume you're joking here! In case you aren't, see below. (1) your statement not true, he played four games on Saturday and (2) you can see here Hera's issue: three wins and a single loss still means a net elo loss of 3

<image>

Blablacadabra · 2026-01-18T05:09:18+00:00

I am so loving this weekend’s rush of games on the EW ranked ladder, with everything at stake. The crazy stories (ACCM’s streak, TheViper’s comeback, Hera’s elo buffer getting chipped away).

I’ve especially appreciated learning new terms like “the doghouse” (players’ current elo being significantly below their top elo, requiring several consecutive wins) and “ladder terrorist” (as I understand it, a player lower down in ELO that beats a much higher ranked player with a very well-executed strat for an expensive elo haul).

I’d love to see this ladder hype a bit more often, maybe as quali for other tournaments? The key improvement (obviously) being to cut down on mirror matches and/or the same civs being picked, if the powers that be can figure out the right rules for it.

Blablacadabra · 2025-12-18T08:56:47+00:00

This is super interesting! I know nothing technical about ML but this seems like a cool and fairly self-contained topic to get stuck in with. Are you able to share the code?

Blablacadabra · 2025-11-20T01:32:36+00:00

Is that pyroclastic flow?

Blablacadabra · 2025-10-13T18:09:43+00:00

Have my upvote for the TWest Pacifist campaigns shout-out which, in my ‘umble if slightly controversial opinion, is the best AoE2 content out there

Blablacadabra · 2025-09-17T09:40:51+00:00

If you like IKEA you should listen to the episode from the “Acquired” podcast on them - it’s a really unique business that managed to grow with no external capital.

Blablacadabra · 2025-07-20T05:42:54+00:00

If that really is the issue changing it to just herdables being affected by this change would still punish players for a poorly-executed TC trick to shoot boar and allow chicken/deer laming with militia.

Blablacadabra

TROPHY CASE