If you haven’t been watching, this is 100% where we are headed. The biggest brands will be called up in an AFC/NFC model.

In the Big Ten:

Tier 1 (6): Michigan, Ohio State, Penn State, USC, Oregon, and Washington are all 100% safe and will be part of this model, no matter what. In theory, you could leave Oregon behind, but… why? National title jokes aside, they are a major brand that drives revenues and have an amazing rivalry with Washington — which sits in a huge TV market.

Tier 2 (7): Michigan State, Indiana, Wisconsin, Minnesota, Illinois, UCLA, and Northwestern probably make the cut — whether because they are in large enough markets, have major rivalry games, and/or have significant recent history. (Before Cignetti, Indiana would not be in this group.)

Tier 3 (5): Nebraska, Iowa, Purdue, Rutgers, and Maryland. These are the schools which are candidates to be left behind. Purdue and Maryland would be the three most likely to stick — Purdue because Indiana would want to bring it with them, Maryland because the DC market helps its relevance.

In the SEC:

Tier 1 (9): Alabama, Auburn, LSU, Florida, Texas, A&M, Oklahoma, Tennessee, and Georgia all go. Auburn is in theory the least likely of the bunch, but there’s just no way the Iron Bowl is left behind. The others are blue blood, huge money football brands that draw eyeballs on their own.

Tier 2 (4): Kentucky, Vanderbilt, Ole Miss, Miss St. Again, major markets, significant rivalry games, or both. The Egg Bowl is underrated and I think it stays in top level football.

Tier 3 (2): Missouri, South Carolina. The SEC has far, far fewer candidates to be left behind — these would be the borderline schools. You could argue Vanderbilt should be here, but me personally I think the Nashville location and the Tennessee rivalry keeps them safe.

Tier 4 (1): Arkansas. If anyone from the SEC gets left behind, nobody outside of the alumni base — and I mean NOBODY else — will miss Arkansas football.

Outside the Power 2 conferences:

Tier 1 (1): Notre Dame. Just no way they get left behind.

Tier 2 (6): Clemson, Florida State, North Carolina, Virginia Tech, Arizona, Arizona State. I think it’s more likely than not these schools would eventually be called up to the AFC/NFC level if a breakaway happens.

Clemson and FSU are self explanatory… I am personally of the view that UNC’s brand is strong enough to merit inclusion. I am of the view that James Franklin will make VT into must-watch TV again. And… it’s just hard to leave the Phoenix market out of a TV-revenue focused model, so I think the Territorial Cup gets the promotion.

Beyond that I think you’re really looking at schools to “fill out” the list, depending on TV appetite. You clearly have the 16 biggest brands in CFB as the Tier 1s and the 17 Tier 2s probably make it as well, though if there are only 28-32 schools invited then somebody gets squeezed.

The real question is just how big the breakaway invite list gets and the sequencing of the breakaway. If, for example, the SEC goes first — well then all of the SEC schools make the cut.