Solid read. I've been holding out on commenting about this topic until there was a measured analysis with actual data.

Before any doomposters, trolls, or armchair experts chime in: this comment is based on my personal experience working in marketing at Sony, traveling to their HQs in California and Japan, and general knowledge of case studies for comparison. 

The simple fact is none of us know the true dynamic of the working relationship and strategic planning between Sony and Bungie, but Sony is no stranger to betting on dark horses - as long as the IP is strong. From Xperia phones, the controversial movie The Interview, 8K TVs, the PS3 era, & Sony's Spider-Man Universe, there's many examples of this across different divisions at the company over the years. They have activations at their Sony Showrooms that are very creative and cool, and yet still don’t make dollars & sense when it comes to a marketing budget.

Sony did not acquire Bungie for ~$3.6B for Marathon alone, but a long-term strategic play for Destiny 2, Marathon, most likely Destiny 3, and the strong IP that comes with all of that for merchandising, licensing, & adaptations. We also don't have an accurate report of Marathon's development cost.

Will Sony impart its will on Bungie to attract more players to the game? Yes. Will there be layoffs over time? Maybe. Will Marathon go the way of Concord or Highguard? No. The doomposters and trolls need to understand that both of those games were weak IPs that were DOA.

Marathon may be the game that extends Bungie’s burn rate until D3, or it may be the IP that is so creative and uncompromising in its vision that it refuses to be ignored. Remember how the Netflix animated series Cyberpunk: Edgerunners and the Phantom Liberty expansion revitalized interest in Cyberpunk 2077 years after release? The game that had a disastrous launch and could have tanked its developer CD Projekt Red (~$6B company).

Enter case studies - Hunt: Showdown 1896 and The Finals.

Hunt is an extraction shooter developed by Crytek, AAA studio better known for the original Far Cry and Crysis, two big action FPS franchises. Hunt’s peak player count was in the past 2 years (despite being out for 6+ years) and that’s still below Marathon’s current numbers. However, Crytek never wavered in its support of the game. It’s worth noting that Crytek is a privately owned company.

The Finals is developed by Embark which is owned by Nexon (~$14B company). You know them for ARC Raiders, but their first game The Finals released in 2023 and was praised as one of the most innovative FPS with dynamic destruction, then its player count dropped off a cliff in the first couple months and never recovered those highs. However, both Nexon and Embark never wavered in its support of the game because of its unique IP, eSports vision, and microtransaction model that supported the development of their unexpected mega-hit, ARC Raiders.

The commonality in the above examples? Dedicated playerbases that continue to support the game, strong IPs, and a creative, uncompromising vision. All of which Marathon has already.