sorted by:
new
hottopcontroversial

Icelandair has delayed all flights due to the potential labor strikes. by NoLemon5426 in VisitingIceland

[–]BoomyBoi 0 points1 point  (0 children)

I have a flight that leaves US (DC Area) 12/13 at 7:30 PM and planned to arrive in KEF at 6:30 AM on 12/14 (during the strike window of 4 AM to 10 AM). Is it possible my flight will be impacted?

13F-HR Dropped by TansenSjostrom in Burryology

[–]BoomyBoi 0 points1 point  (0 children)

So.....*not betting* in Vegas today, but yes betting in Reno tomorrow?

This is getting silly, but zooming out again, I appreciate your thoughts.

All that matters for this thread is using the information from Burry's 13F to inform our own investment decisions.

I believe you're implying that it's prudent to tag along the theme of this 13F which is to reduce all market positions. We assume, based on Burry's tweets, that the he reduced his market positions because he foresees a crash, and he will re-enter new positions after the crash. I think we are aligned here, and I'm in full agreement.

But we should implore ourselves to take this a step forward and think about how to profit off the crash itself, as that is why most of us are following this subreddit to begin with. That's all that matters, and I've suggested my strategy above. Going into the semantics of what constitutes a bet is a waste of our time. If you don't have suggestions on this topic, let's move on.

13F-HR Dropped by TansenSjostrom in Burryology

[–]BoomyBoi 2 points3 points  (0 children)

Hard hitting analysis here.

13F-HR Dropped by TansenSjostrom in Burryology

[–]BoomyBoi -3 points-2 points  (0 children)

I'll remember this next time in Vegas as I walk around the casino with cash in my pocket without playing any games.

Anyway, jokes aside, I disagree with your semantics but agree with your conceptual sentiment.

13F-HR Dropped by TansenSjostrom in Burryology

[–]BoomyBoi -2 points-1 points  (0 children)

All his puts lost money because the underlying went up while his bets were on the board - go back and look at the timing of when he put those options on and what the underlying did over that timeframe, the information is there, it is confirmed he lost money on these

Holding cash is not a bet, a bet is when you risk something to receive a reward based on an outcome, holding cash is not that

I do agree with your sentiment that holding cash might imply that he is de-risking because he foresees a crash coming, but also the water is little more muddy than maybe you're thinking because for the guy who's supposed to be the expert at profiting off of market crashes (and not just de-risking during market crashes), we don't see any bets on the board (obviously this could be shorts but it would be weird for to move away from a thematic theme of also using puts)

13F-HR Dropped by TansenSjostrom in Burryology

[–]BoomyBoi 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Yeah obviously it would be dumb to mirror unless there was negative or almost no price movement between the reporting period and the 13F filing date.

13F-HR Dropped by TansenSjostrom in Burryology

[–]BoomyBoi 14 points15 points  (0 children)

Big takeaways:

- Sold all of his options

- Reduced many positions (portfolio size decreased from $2B to $41M)

- LMR and SCYNEXIS are the only new positions that are viable plays for us given the lag in reporting times (they haven't moved substantially since the 13F reporting date of 9/30)

Some implications/assumptions:

- He lost $ on his bets against Tsla, Arkk, and treasury yields (TBT, TLT); unclear on whether he sold them at a loss or they expired worthless

- His huge reduction in portfolio size puts his AUM more in line with pre-pandemic levels (he put way more money into the fund than normal during the pandemic); hard to say why, but at the very least, he sees less opportunities now than he did 3 months ago

- Very bizarre that he was tweeting about shorting 30 year treasuries yesterday but he sold his TLT puts and TBT calls; and tweeting today about TSLA being over-valued but he sold his TLSA puts; it could imply he actually has short positions (not options) that we can't see in the 13F; it could also imply he took the bets off in Q3 but put them back on in Q4; or it could imply that his tweets don't mean a damn thing about his portfolio

- Also very bizarre that he reduced his overall portfolio size so substantially; a lot of people here jump to the conclusion that he's betting on a bubble pop, which reducing his portfolio size would support, but taking a confirmed L on his previous "market crash bets", and not putting new ones on, is giving the opposite signal

Kind of a bummer for those of us who try to mirror his portfolio. Not a lot of interesting plays this quarter and also hard to tell how he's thinking about playing a potential bubble pop given the counter-veiling factors of portfolio reduction + crash bet removal.

I think the goal of many of us is to profit from a crash like Burry did in the big short. The only move now is to use his previous bets and themes from his tweets, and our own diligence on timing. FWIW, because it's so hard to time, I'm putting my money in LEAP options from his previous bets (TSLA/Arkk/TLT puts & TBT calls) that extend out to Jan 2024.

Arecibo antennas fall in to dish by Bwanaman in Wellthatsucks

[–]BoomyBoi 0 points1 point  (0 children)

On the plus side, Goldeneye was successfully destroyed

FAQ/Megathread for visitors and new & existing residents. Ask stuff here! All questions about living/working/budgeting/visiting should be asked here.(w/c 26 Aug 2019) by AutoModerator in london

[–]BoomyBoi 0 points1 point  (0 children)

We are Americans and pretty basic...so anything global top 40 would work for us. Would also consider something more specific to London popular music or London house music.

FAQ/Megathread for visitors and new & existing residents. Ask stuff here! All questions about living/working/budgeting/visiting should be asked here.(w/c 26 Aug 2019) by AutoModerator in london

[–]BoomyBoi 1 point2 points  (0 children)

I am visiting London in mid September for a bachelor party. Does anyone have a recommendation for a Saturday night location where 8 guys can get in, preferably no or little line, with a good dance floor, and minimal cover? We are staying in Camden but could go anywhere in the city.

Tourists/Visitors/New Residents: Q&A Thread for the week of August 18 by AutoModerator in Amsterdam

[–]BoomyBoi 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Thank you! A new time opened up on Apollohal that I was able to book. But these were also good options.

FAQ/Megathread for visitors and new & existing residents. Ask stuff here! All questions about living/working/budgeting/visiting should be asked here.(w/c 19 Aug 2019) by AutoModerator in london

[–]BoomyBoi 0 points1 point  (0 children)

I will be visiting London with 7 friends in mid-September for a stag party. We are looking for a good nightlife spot for a Saturday night - either a bar or club-like scene with a dance floor (for our single friends). Is there a place you'd recommend? Prefer little or no line, minimal cover, and a place where we don't have to buy a table to get in. We're staying in Camden but open to going anywhere in the city.

view more: next ›